Beginning of a New World Epoch
Paul A. Samuelson

President Barack Obama's 2008 electoral landslide victory averted a global financial meltdown. Had Republican Sen. John McCain won that election, present U.S. GDP would have been even lower than it is now, by more than 15 percent! And similar losses in global productivity would also have taken place.

Unemployment Rockets

October Jobs Report: A True Witches' Brew
Liz Wolgemuth

In what will no doubt boost skepticism over the Obama administration's message of stimulus success, the unemployment rate in October rocketed to 10.2 percent, a figure much higher than economists had expected and just 0.6 percentage points away from the post-World War II high seen in 1982. While unemployment snapped back down swiftly in the early-1980s recession, it is widely expected that job creation will be slow in this recovery.

Economy: Cities Where Jobs Recovery Will Be Slowest
Liz Wolgemuth

While the nation's job market is awful overall -- thousands of Americans are exhausting their unemployment benefits daily -- it's clear that the true jobs picture is as varied as the nation's topography. With the promise of a recovery on the horizon, new data show that the employment upturn will be regional as well

Forget Inflation, Deflation Is a Bigger Danger
Mortimer B. Zuckerman

Inflation typically results from 'too much money chasing too few goods.' Today, too much supply is chasing too little demand. That, coupled with consumers' need to save money to rebuild their finances, raises the risk of deflation, not inflation. And as workers compete for scarce jobs and companies underbid one another for sales, both wages and prices will remain under pressure.

Economy: Finding Opportunity in the Recession
Matthew Bandyk

Of all the industries devastated by the recession, the media has been one of the most notoriously affected. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 65,000 media jobs were cut in 2008 -- nearly 4 percent of the industry's total. Newspapers are perhaps the biggest loser, with more than 9 percent of jobs eliminated in 2008. However, ...

Unemployment and Foreclosure: If You Don't Have a Job, How Will You Pay the Mortgage
Ilyce Glink

When it comes to foreclosure, the problem isn't just the 7.2 million jobs that have been lost during this great recession. There are millions of Americans who took a huge pay cut to keep their companies going. Unpaid furloughs and 10 to 25 percent pay cuts mean tens of millions of Americans are having a much harder time paying their bills -- and their mortgages are at risk as well.

Latin American Economy Will Do Well, but Not Great
Latin American Current Events, News & Affairs - Andres Oppenheimer

The news that Brazil and Mexico have come out of the recession and are poised for solid growth in 2010 should be celebrated, and both countries' leaders should be given credit for their sound economic management. But in the global economic context, the two Latin American giants' recovery will be modest.

The Dollar and the Deficits
C. Fred Bergsten

The dollar is under attack on two fronts. Private investors are driving it lower in the foreign exchange markets. Monetary authorities are questioning its role as the world's key currency. There is an obvious linkage between the two attacks: expectations of further falls in the dollar's value will accelerate the prospect that foreign central banks will switch to euros

Economy: End of The Recession Around the Corner?
Paul A. Samuelson

The 2006-2009 recession is likely over now (or very soon). So says Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. At most central banks around the globe the same story is now being proclaimed. Just what does this mean? And what does it not necessarily mean?

Economic Recovery   (c) Matt Davies

Reports Show Mixed Results for Obama's Stimulus
Amanda Ruggeri

One report shows that the GDP rose about 2.3 percentage points. In Washington, talk of the $787 billion stimulus package has been largely overshadowed by healthcare reform. A recent report by the Council of Economic Advisers could help the Democratic cause, at least when it comes to defending the administration's decisions on fiscal recovery. But taken in conjunction with a Government Accountability Office report that examines states' use of stimulus funding the overall picture remains a mixed bag.

Free Enterprise is Key to Economic Recovery
Kenneth T. Walsh

Tom Donohue, president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, has big plans. In mid-October, his organization, which is one of the most influential advocates for business in the United States, will launch a 'Campaign for Free Enterprise,' a multiyear effort (at an estimated cost of at least $25 million annually) to educate Americans about capitalism and explain the importance of free enterprise.

Pecora Hearings a Model for Financial Crisis Investigation
Amanda Ruggeri

Congress could learn from Pecora's 1930s investigation of the stock market crash. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission -- created by Congress in May to determine and analyze the origins of the current financial crisis -- is charged with examining no fewer than 20 of its specific causes, including the roles of fraud and abuse, credit rating agencies, and corporate compensation structures. The commission must also examine the collapses of major financial institutions like Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns.

The Case for Economic Irrelevance
Paul Greenberg

A recession may stunt more than material growth. It can also drain intellectual curiosity. For economic pressure can lead people to settle for what only seems to be security instead of following their dreams. Which can be a tragedy for both the individual and a society that depends on people reaching ever higher, rather than not settling for what only seems safe.

Selling the Economic Recovery
Jules Witcover

To counter the pessimistic observations of Republicans who haven't been able to come up with their own answer to the economic mess they left to President Obama, he trotted out ever-optimistic Vice President Joe Biden the other day to declare a solid start to a job only barely getting underway.

Why Obama Won't Be Able to Reform Wall Street
Arianna Huffington

Listening to President Obama's heartfelt, well-intentioned, but ultimately naive speech on financial reform, my mind kept flashing on a story I heard the last time Washington, in the wake of the Enron scandal, promised to reform Wall Street.

Barack Obama Must See Michael Moore's New Movie (and So Must You)
Arianna Huffington

With his new movie, 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' Michael Moore is riding the wave of the collapse of trust in our country's financial system. The film is a withering indictment of the current economic order, covering everything from Wall Street's casino mentality to for-profit prisons, from Goldman Sachs' sway in Washington to the poverty-level pay of many airline pilots, from the tidal wave of foreclosures to the tragic consequences of runaway greed.

The Emerging Economic Order
(c) Jack Ohman

U.S., China and the Emerging Economic Order
Henry Kissinger

The assumption that the end of the recession will restore the familiar global economic system ignores the psychological and political upheaval that has taken place.

A vast tide of liquidity coupled with America's appetite for consumer goods had sent enormous amounts of dollars to China that, in turn, China lent back to us for still more buying.

Economy: Past Stormy Weather and What May Follow
Paul A. Samuelson

The Fed and the majority of the consensus forecasters fear that this expected recovery might be a weak one that does little to reduce Main Street's unemployment. And it may also imply that future private consumer and investment spending will continue to be anemic. That would mean that at the global level there might not be the replay of the old-time drama in which the American locomotive comes to the rescue of depressed economies.

Divine Debt Trumps All
Victor Davis Hanson

In modern America, debt -- whether national, state or trade -- now plays the same overarching role as the ancient Greek notion of fate. And the president, Congress and the states for all their various agendas are impotent since they must first pay back trillions that have long ago been borrowed and spent.

Joseph Stiglitz Left's Favorite U.S. Nobel Economist
Andres Oppenheimer

U.S. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz has become a sort of rock star in left-of-center Latin American countries for his vocal criticism of free-for-all capitalism. But in a wide-ranging interview, he offered some advice that many of his fans in the region may not want to hear.

The Dollar's Fate, in the Longer Term
Paul Kennedy

There is a most interesting debate going on at present in the academic community about the longer-term fate of the U.S. dollar as the supreme reserve currency for foreign-exchange transactions and, more importantly, for the currency holdings of national governments, global companies and the producers of oil, gas and other raw materials.

The Dilemmas of the Dollar
by Barry Eichengreen

Legions of pundits have argued that the dollar's status as a reserve currency has been damaged by the credit crisis of 2007-9. The crisis has not exactly enhanced the attractions of the United States as a supplier of high-quality financial assets. It would be no surprise if the disfunctionality of U.S. financial markets diminished the appetite of foreign central banks for U.S. debt securities.

Low and Behold the Price of Oil
by Edward L. Morse

The rapid fall and then rebound in oil prices over the past year surprised many people. But it was not unusual: commodities markets are cyclical by nature and have a history punctuated by sudden turning points. Although this generally makes it difficult to forecast prices, it is safe to say that commodities markets will remain lower over the next few years than they have been over the past five.

Beware of False Hopes on the Economy
Mortimer B. Zuckerman

Is there light at the end of this very long tunnel of a recession? Government spokespeople, keen to encourage confidence, say there is (their metaphor is "green shoots"). Many private business people concur. Let's do a reality check ...

Budget Cuts Hit Nation's Public Colleges Hard, Even as Demand for Well-educated Workforce Soars
Kim Clark

The recession, state budget cuts, and hidebound bureaucracies are endangering some of the most important foundations of the American dream -- the low-cost, high-quality public colleges created to provide anyone with smarts and diligence the training needed to succeed.

General Motors: 'Cash for Clunkers' a Huge Success
Amanda Ruggeri

Not everyone supported the Senate's passage of a bill that boosted "cash for clunkers" by $2 billion, effectively extending it through Labor Day. But it's hard to argue that the program, which gives rebates to people who trade in old cars for more fuel-efficient vehicles, hasn't made the auto industry happy. That's true for General Motors ...

Maybe Cash For Clunkers Helped The Economy After All
Matthew Bandyk

Daniel Gross at Slate makes the case that the evidence is in, and cash-for-clunkers gets a pretty good return as stimulus: If we use Taylor's estimate, about 250,000 extra cars were purchased (40 percent of 625,000). And if each cost $29,000, those sales generated about $7.3 billion in revenue in the space of a few weeks. That's a pretty good return on $2.6 billion in government spending.

Auto Dealers: Cash for Clunkers a Needed Boost
Amanda Ruggeri

John McEleney is the chair of the Virginia-based National Automobile Dealers Association, which represents more than 90 percent of new-car dealers nationwide and lobbied hard for the program. He recently spoke about how dealers have been reacting to the program and what the problem was with reimbursements.

Hidden behind the unemployment rate are some startling numbers
Matthew Bandyk

The "Great Recession" is the name that has stuck for the economic decline that began in late 2007. But there's some reason to think that using the word recession is being kind. The U.S. gross domestic product has shrunk 3.9 percent in the past year, the worst drop since the Great Depression. Plenty of observers are willing to say that this recession is much deeper than anything we've seen since the 1930s

Keep Back-to-School Shopping Costs Down
Zack Miners

The National Retail Federaton predicts the worst back-to-school shopping season for stores in more than a decade, with a spending drop of 8 percent. But many retailers are doing everything they can to win back business, and you can do your part to stretch your dollar by considering these recommendations ...

Government Bailout
(c) Paul Tong

Opportunity Cost of the Bank Bailout
Arianna Huffington

The lopsided 'recovery.' Banks that received billions in taxpayer handouts now reporting massive profits and setting aside record amounts for executive bonuses, and the American people continuing to face 9.5 percent unemployment, 10,000 foreclosures a day and vital services being cut.

What Enron & WorldCom Can Teach Us About Goldman & AIG
Arianna Huffington

Newsweek's latest cover story declares that The Great Recession is over. A Merrill Lynch report concurs, saying, 'The recession is over... We are bullish on global equities.' Goldman Sachs is placing riskier bets on the market than it did before the financial meltdown (and setting aside huge amounts of money to pay its executives). The problem is ...

Smoke Billowing Out of Our Economic Mount Vesuvius
Arianna Huffington

There is currently plenty of alarming smoke pouring out of our economic Vesuvius, but it is being dismissed. Don't worry about economic tremors, we're told, our financial system is back on track, the bailout worked and we'll start our slow but steady climb to recovery. But warning signs are all around us ...

Working to Improve the Economy
Kenneth T. Walsh Interviews Christina Romer

Christina Romer -- chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers -- recently spoke with Kenneth T. Walsh about what has gone wrong, when an economic recovery might occur, and what it's like to work with President Obama.

Real Estate Matters
(c) Nancy Ohanian

Sell High and Buy Low Is Trickier Than It Sounds
Ilyce Glink

It's really difficult to sell high and buy low under the current economic climate -- unless you're moving to a different part of the country or from a neighborhood that has appreciated greatly to another that has not.

Housing Crisis Conundrum: Which America Do You Live In
Ilyce Glink

It almost feels as though there are two economies.

First, we have the so-called 'good news' from Wall Street, where the big financial companies are crowing about billion-dollar profits, paying $100 million bonuses, and repaying warrants. Then we have the Main Street economy, where people can't get lenders to call them back, where jobs continue to be lost, home values continue to fall, net worths shrink and foreclosures continue to rise.

Small Businesses Hold on Despite Economy
Matthew Bandyk

Conventional wisdom holds true when it comes to small businesses struggling in an economic recession. Small businesses drive the nation's economy so when the economy slows down, they take the brunt. Compared with large businesses, they have less of a cushion of capital. Tight credit makes business expansion difficult. And economic slowdowns can expose fundamental flaws in business plans. But despite all these disadvantages, the number of small businesses as a whole seems to be recessionproof.

States Where the Unemployed Are Giving Up
Liz Wolgemuth

In some states, nearly half of the job seekers who have stopped looking for work have done so because they simply don't believe they'll find anything. Indeed, the number of discouraged workers nationwide has more than doubled in the past year. This trend won't be reflected in the widely publicized unemployment rate ...

Is the Economic Marriage Between China and U.S. on the Rocks?
Niall Ferguson Interview

China and America had effectively fused to become a single economy: Chimerica. The Chinese did the saving, the Americans the spending. The Chinese did the exporting, the Americans the importing. The Chinese did the lending, the Americans the borrowing. As the Chinese strategy was based on export-led growth, they had no desire to see their currency appreciate against the dollar. The unintended effect of this was to help finance the U.S. current account deficit at very low interest rates. Without that, it's hard to believe that U.S. financial markets would have bubbled the way they did from 2002 to 2007.

Boomers, Housing and Retirement:
A Symbiotic Relationship Unravels
By Mark Miller

The housing market is showing some tentative signs of recovery. But if you're a baby boomer relying on housing wealth to help fund retirement, don't hold your breath. True, the most recent Standard and Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index showed that U.S. home prices rose in May on a month-to-month basis for the first time since July 2006. But that shouldn't be taken as a sign that the market is going to rebound to pre-crash levels anytime soon. At best, the Case-Shiller index hints that we may have found a bottom in housing. Maybe

Early Economic Recovery: Fiction or Fact
Paul A. Samuelson

Ever since the global meltdown began in 2007, Wall Street pundits and government officials have proclaimed cheery optimism that meaningful global recovery will occur by the second half of 2009, or the first quarter of 2010. So, as in an earlier time, they're telling us we have nothing to fear except fear itself. Well, we have now entered 2009's second half. The question is whether the early economic recovery is fact or fiction. Paul A. Samuelson shares his findings ...

Blame State of the Economy on the Midas Touch
William Pfaff

If one tries to draw an urgently contemporary lesson from Greek myth, the story of Midas is irresistible. It provides a commentary on our global economic and financial crisis, in which the pursuit of wealth has ruined us.

House Votes to Give Cash for Clunkers Another $2 Billion
Amanda Ruggeri

After "cash for clunkers" proved so popular that it threatened to run out of cash within its first week, the House pushed aside the other items on its agenda today to save it, passing a bill that allots another $2 billion to keep the program running. The passage of the bill, by a vote of 316 to 109, helps stave off a temporary shutdown of the Consumer Assistance to Recycle and Save (CARS) program.

4 Things to Know About the Cash-Strapped 'Cash for Clunkers'
Matthew Bandyk

The government set aside $1 billion for the "cash for clunkers" program, which is meant to give $3,500 or $4,500 vouchers to people who trade in their gas-guzzling vehicles for new, fuel-efficient ones. But now that the White House says the program doesn't have enough money to get through the weekend, many consumers are confused about what to do next. Here are four things that consumers can do in this rapidly-changing environment

Cash for Clunkers Program Has Its Roadblocks
Kathy Kristof

If you want to trade in your junker for a new vehicle under the federal government's 'cash for clunkers' program, you'll have to act fast. Plus, qualifying for the vouchers isn't as simple as you might think. In fact, you'll need to know three things to decide whether it's a good deal for you.

Making Sense of 'Cash for Clunkers'
Matthew Bandyk

With new-car sales slumping, automotive companies have been looking for ways to get consumers back into showrooms. Washington checked one item off car companies' wish list when it passed the Consumer Assistance to Recycle and Save Act of 2009 -- commonly known as 'Cash for Clunkers' ...

Nine Reasons the Economy is Not Getting Better
Mortimer B. Zuckerman

We are now looking at unemployment numbers that undermine any confidence that we might be nearing the bottom of the recession. The appropriate metaphor is not the green shoots of new growth. A better image is to look at the true total of jobless people as a prudent navigator looks at an iceberg

Why June Jobs Report Is So Depressing
Liz Wolgemuth

The brutal truth about the Labor Department's June jobs report is that it offers strong evidence companies are still hacking away at their payroll costs -- slicing hours and chopping jobs. Employers cut 467,000 jobs last month, according to the report. The unemployment rate -- a measure of the percentage of workers who are unemployed and looking for work -- rose slightly to 9.5 percent, from 9.4 percent in May.

Editorial Cartoon by David Horsey

Happy Economic Recovery vs. An Anemic One
Paul A. Samuelson

The number-one question preoccupying economists, policy agents of government and Main Street families is this:

Will "recovery" from the current U.S. financial meltdown arrive before the end of 2009? Or, failing that, will it at least arrive early in 2010?

Whistling Past the Economic Graveyard
Arianna Huffington

Is it possible to have too much hope? To be too optimistic? Yes, if that hope keeps you from facing -- and dealing with -- unpleasant realities. That seems to be what's happening regarding the financial institutions responsible for the economic meltdown.

We've Gone From Saving Wall Street in Order to Save Main Street to Just Saving Wall Street
Arianna Huffington

Remember how, when taxpayers were being asked to fork over billions of dollars to bail out Wall Street, we were told it was essential to saving Main Street? Well, in just a few months, we've gone from saving the banks in order to save the economy to just saving the banks. It's the opposite of mission creep.

Economic Crisis will Create the Social Heroes of Tomorrow
Alvin and Heidi Toffler

The economic crisis now gripping the world is going to go away. We may not know precisely when, where and how. But one thing is certain. Nothing is likely to blow away the waves of change that have marked human history

Geopolitical Consequences of the Financial Crisis
Roger C. Altman

It is now clear that the global economic crisis will be deep and prolonged and that it will have far-reaching geopolitical consequences. The long movement toward market liberalization has stopped, and a new period of state intervention, reregulation, and creeping protectionism has begun.

Future Of The Federal Reserve - Exclusive Conversation With Ron Paul
by Matthew Bandyk

The person in Congress with perhaps the most unconventional point of view on these issues in American politics is Congressman and former presidential candidate Ron Paul (R-TX), a longtime critic of the very institution of the Fed and fractional reserve banking. He recently sponsored a bill that would audit the Fed.

10 Most Dollar-Discounted Housing Markets
By Luke Mullins

As the historic real estate bust continues to gut home prices throughout the country, property owners everywhere are scrambling to attract buyers. For some home sellers, that might mean chipping in for closing costs; others might try to sweeten the deal by handing out perks, like a free parking spot. But for many homeowners, the most efficient way to sell a home in a depressed market is to simply drop the listing price.

House Prices, Mortgage Interest Rates Key to Housing Market Recovery
By Ilyce Glink

With housing prices falling and mortgage interest rates rising, it's hard to say the housing market has bottomed out. And, yet, there are some reasons for a more optimistic housing forecast, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com

Joseph Stiglitz:
Will Capitalism Survive Wall Street Apocalypse
Matthew Bandyk

A few days after writing about how the United States is not heading towards socialism, Joseph Stiglitz suggests that might not be true about the rest of the world. Stiglitz argues that the lesson many Third World nations might take from the financial crisis is that capitalism is fundamentally flawed.

A 'Kinder, Gentler' Recession for Seniors
Mark Miller - Retire Smart

Is the Great Recession bypassing seniors? The Pew Research Center poll reports that Americans over age 65 are less likely to have been forced to cut their spending by the downturn than middle-aged people.

Break Political Traffic Jam on Transportation Overhaul
Joshua Schank and Matthew Dallek

Any transportation project, including the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" in Alaska, creates jobs. However, transportation has become a policy orphan amid the healthcare tsunami that's overwhelmed the news coverage of Obama's America. Thus, stalling all the economic benefits that flow from enacting a revitalized transportation policy.

Government Intervention & Economic Risk
by Ian Bremmer and Sean West

It's no secret that politics affects economic markets. But in response to a financial crisis or economic downturn, political risk impacts markets much more broadly than just isolated policies and individual stocks.

Waiting for the Payoff:
Debate Continues Over Obama's Recovery Plan
by Justin Ewers

When Obama took office, many economists were skeptical about how the largely untested former senator would handle the array of economic problems before him. While there certainly has been no shortage of quibbling about the specifics of his recovery plans and there continues to be little certainty about what lies in store for the economy

Obama Blazing New Trail With His Bold Moves on Economy
by Kenneth T. Walsh

For most Americans, Barack Obama 's most vivid presidential moment came on election night. Since that electric Chicago night back in November, he has pivoted from poetry to prose, playing down charisma and emphasizing competence. And he has moved with impressive speed to focus on the nation's No. 1 problem: the recession and the collapsing financial industry, widely considered the worst economic calamity since the Depression. In the process, Obama is pushing the political pendulum from the conservative approach of Ronald Reagan, who said government was the problem, to a more liberal philosophy that holds that only Washington has the wherewithal to provide the answers.

Tax Cuts: Why Obama is Leaving the Reagan Era Behind
by Justin Ewers

As similar as the economic challenges facing Reagan and Obama may sound, the fiscal solutions proposed by the two presidents could not be more different. Obama has gone on a Keynesian spending spree, raising taxes on the highest-income earners and pouring money into energy, healthcare, and a massive stimulus bill. Reagan took the opposite path during his first few months in office, pushing through the biggest tax cuts in history, while massively increasing the defense budget. Politicians have been arguing ever since about which approach works better.

Obama Blazing New Trail With His Bold Moves on Economy
by Kenneth T. Walsh

For most Americans, Barack Obama 's most vivid presidential moment came on election night.

Since that electric Chicago night back in November, he has pivoted from poetry to prose, playing down charisma and emphasizing competence. And he has moved with impressive speed to focus on the nation's No. 1 problem: the recession and the collapsing financial industry, widely considered the worst economic calamity since the Depression.

In the process, Obama is pushing the political pendulum from the conservative approach of Ronald Reagan, who said government was the problem, to a more liberal philosophy that holds that only Washington has the wherewithal to provide the answers.

Why No One Can Guess When
Main Street Recovery will Occur
Paul A. Samuelson

Federal Reserve Chairmen Ben Bernanke glimpses a possible recovery by year end. He is a cautious scholar, backed by the best forecasters in the world at the Federal Reserve Board.

I would be a rash fool to quarrel with this quasi-optimistic view that by year end some stability will occur. You and I should hope that there will indeed be a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel ahead. But shift our vision now to the future. Even if the short run prospect for a 2009-2010 recovery turns out to be good, I must warn once again that the long-run outlook for the U.S. dollar is hazardous.

Whistling Past Economic Graveyard: Audacity of Misplaced Hope
by Arianna Huffington

When Tim Geithner unveiled the Public Private Investment Program, he said that dealing with these assets was a "core" part of solving the financial crisis. But the banks would much rather keep pretending that their toxic assets are not that toxic, and worth much more than they really are -- a risky charade the relaxed mark-to-market rules allow them to continue to pull off

Wall Street, D.C. & The New Financial Euphoria
by Arianna Huffington

Insider consensus seems to be that the worst of the hard times is behind us and that the economy is back on track. Or at least on track to be back on track. Not even the latest employment stats showing that another 539,000 Americans had lost their jobs dimmed the enthusiasm. Call it The New Financial Euphoria.

Free-Market Economy Fundamentally Healthy
Global Economic Viewpoint

Last week at the Milken Global Conference, three Noble Laureates in Economics sat down to discuss the global recession -- Gary Becker (Nobel Prize, 1992), Roger Myerson (Nobel Prize, 2007) and Myron Scholes (Nobel Prize 1997).

All three agreed that this is not going to be a depression and that the free-market economy is fundamentally healthy.

Brazil, China & India Can Mitigate Global Crisis
Global Economic Viewpoint

Brazil, India and even China will not be able, by themselves, to correct the dysfunctions that produced the global crisis. But it is true that the economic power of these three countries can mitigate its negative consequences. ...