Andrew Jarvis
It is only human to worry about the potential failure of food supplies. Governments worry too because the results can be both devastating and explosive. Strange then that they have not done more to help with supply and demand.
Farmers have been trying to do their bit to reduce the risk of a repeat of the 2008 global food price crisis. It is less clear that governments have been doing theirs.
The world has seen record harvests since the spike in food commodity prices which began three years ago. Farmers, especially in the developed world, responded promptly to those economic signals by pushing up output. Global stocks of the main food commodities, which had declined, recovered.
Yet markets went haywire when, midway through this year,
This episode, and further flurries in October when American wheat stocks were lower than expected, had echoes of 2008 when a wave of export bans across a number of commodities made a difficult situation measurably worse. Export bans which are beggar-thy-food-importing neighbour policy in the short run, can become a beggar thyself strategy in the long term by giving buyers reason to lose faith in the exporter's reliability as more than a fair weather friend.
Such bans encourage an environment in which markets are driven not by measured analysis of supply and demand but the fear of further intervention. Lack of clarity about how governments will behave as food commodity markets move makes private sector decisions more difficult, and risky.
Yet there is little sign that governments have learned these lessons, or that there is a will to put in place an international framework to make food exporters' use of such bans less attractive, and less likely. Politicians blaming 'speculators' for food price spikes would be on firmer ground had they worked more effectively to reduce the uncertainty and scarcity on which that speculation thrives.
Finding Farmland
Unpredictable behaviour by major suppliers also gives food-importing countries cause to lose faith in the reliability of international markets. It is not surprising that those who can are continuing to look at alternative strategies based on direct investment in land in other countries. This trend has contributed to an increase in agricultural investment, which in broad terms ought to be welcomed, but also prompted concerns about a global 'land grab' and the displacement of vulnerable communities in recipient countries.
One positive development has been a set of Principles for Responsible Agro-investment by an international partnership that includes the
But, as a recent report from the
So there is much to do to help recipient countries build that capacity, something development agencies are turning their attentions to. But it is not clear how far such guidelines - however well-designed - will be accepted by state-backed investors, including those from the
The wave of international investment in farmland has reached beyond developing
Fueling Food Debate
And the gyrations in food commodity markets have put a spring in the step of those in
The commitments made by
Mandates and targets for blending biofuels into transport fuels have had an increasing influence on patterns of demand for certain commodities hitherto destined for human food or animal feed. This year about thirty percent of US maize output is expected to go to bioethanol production. Several million tonnes a year of British wheat output could soon be heading into bioethanol refineries if those in development are commissioned; one major biorefinery is already in operation.
As
Andrew Jarvis, Associate Fellow Energy, Environment and Resource Governance, Chatham House
Available at Amazon.com:
Displacement and Dispossession in the Modern Middle East (The Contemporary Middle East)
The End of History and the Last Man
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?
Running Out of Water: The Looming Crisis and Solutions to Conserve Our Most Precious Resource
Bottled and Sold: The Story Behind Our Obsession with Bottled Water
Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization
At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes
Friendly Fire: Losing Friends and Making Enemies in the Anti-American Century
Dining With al-Qaeda: Three Decades Exploring the Many Worlds of the Middle East
Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy
- A World Full of Fault Lines
- Facebook, Twitter and the Search for Peace in the Middle East
- China's Leadership: Fractures Finally Showing
- China: Uncertain Leap Forward
- Britain and China: Being Friendly
- Belarus: Land Between
- Sudan's Referendum: Prickly Interdependence
- Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Limits of Being Helpful
- Iraq Refugees: Seeking Safety
- Troublesome Partner in Afghanistan
- NATO Presses on With Futile Effort in Afghanistan
- Counterfeit Medicines: Health and Harm
- Food Supply: Lunchtime Blues
- Cybersecurity and Society: bigsociety.com
- America's Credibility Deficit
- Global Warming Conference Faces Meltdown
- WikiLeaks Disclosures Not Earth Shattering
- WikiLeaks May End Up Helping America
- WikiLeaks and The Invisible Government
- Wikileaks: More Than Just an Embarrassment
- Wikileaks: Undiplomatic Diplomacy
- A WikiLeaks Wake-up Call
- Will WikiLeaks Hobble U.S. Diplomacy?
- How WikiLeaks Can Make Us Less Free
- Wikileaks: Small Revelations That May Cause a Big Idea to Take Hold
- G20 Summit: Hitting Singles in Seoul
- The Consequences of Fiscal Irresponsibility
- GDP Now Matters More Than Force: Policy for the Age of Economic Power
- What Population Growth and Decline Means for the Global Economy
- Leading Through Civilian Power: Redefining Diplomacy and Development
- The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in Perspective
- Who Do You Call If You Want to Divide Europe?
- The Game Changer: Coping With China's Foreign Policy Revolution
- Why the Retirement Age Is Increasing
- Religion's Growing Influence in International Politics
- The Difficulty of Integrating Rising Powers
- Ban-ki Moon Has United Nations 'Drifting Into Irrelevance'
- Bachelet Faces Uphill Battle at U.N. Women
- Murderous Tactics Fueling Terrorist Propaganda
- Benjamin Netanyahu: A Hawk in the Ointment
- Diminished Capacity
- Moscow's Modernization Dilemma: Is Russia Charting a New Foreign Policy?
- NATO Summit Unlikely to Answer the Most Important Questions
- Franco-German Call for Change in the EU Meets with Much Opposition
- A Tenuous Deal in Iraq
- Conflict or Cooperation? Three Visions Revisited
- A New Global Player: Brazil's Far-Flung Agenda
- Pax Ottomana? The Mixed Success of Turkey's New Foreign Policy
- Rise of the Mezzanine Rulers
- Globalizing the Energy Revolution
- Democracy in Cyberspace
- The Digital Disruption
- Africa: Agriculture's Final Frontier
- A Reading List for the Twenty-first Century
- Latin American Leaders Could Have Learned From South Korea
- Region Ignoring Venezuela Coup Threats
- To Fight Corruption, Start Cutting Red Tape
- New Congress Won't Lead to 'Fortress America'
- The Shifting Balance of Power
- Checking China's Territorial Moves
- Why China Has a Point About Quantitative Easing
- China's Rate Hike: Winners and Losers
- Taiwan's Shadow
- Fools Rush in Where Europe Rushes Out
- Germany to Muhammad: Go Home
- Can NATO Nudge Russia Westward?
- French Demonstrations Tell a Familiar Tale
- Chavez a Pain for Spain
- Nestor Kirchner's Death May Mark End of an Era
- Petraeus Follows Iraq Formula in Afghanistan
- Heavy Handed Intervention Has Stalled Arab-Israeli Peace Process
- George Clooney Urges Obama and Media To Focus On Sudan
- Fighting Hunger in Des Moines
- Rise in Tourism to Miami May Signal Danger Ahead
- Peru May Be Next Latin American Success Story
- Nobel Winner Right About Risks of e-Books
- Nestor Kirchner's Death May Mark End of an Era
- Chavez a Pain for Spain
- Economic Woes Put Brittle Nations on Edge
- A Divided and Insular European Union
- Do not Expect China to Budge on the Yuan
- Why on Earth Does America Want a Stronger Chinese Currency?
- Nuclear Club Has Yet Another Applicant
- Nuclear Armament Still Our Central Issue
- Embattled Islam
- 'Europe Looks East' Hints at the Future
- Choosing Between the Evil of Two Lessers In Afghanistan
- Chavez Lost Ground but Will Fight Back
- Education Too Important to Be Left in Government Hands
- Latin America In Denial About the Quality of Its Schools
- Millennium Development Goals for Women Largely Unmet
- North Korean Succession Plans Are Shrouded in Mystery
- Rogue BFFs North Korea and Iran Make Quite a Pair
- American Role in Israeli-Palestinian Talks Is a Problem
- Iraq Reluctant to Pay Its Fair Share of Security Costs
- Iran's 'Shaky' Ahmadinejad
- United States Could Be Alone as Europe Turns Inward
- Hugo Chávez May Lose Even if He Wins
- Brazil Needs Dose of Constructive Paranoia
- Latin American Commodity Exporters Need to Diversify
- Stoned on Righteousness
- Our Man in Moscow
- Widening Divide in American-Chinese Commercial Interests
- The New Old World Order
- Global Human-Rights Cause Gets a Shot in the Arm
- Obama's Foreign Policy Performance
- New Russia Takes Root in Saint Petersburg and Moscow
- Dismantling Worst-Case Proliferation Scenarios
- A Numbers Game in the Middle East
- Middle East Peace Talks: Here We Go Again
- Obama and Clinton Revive Middle East Peace Talks
- Guess Who's Coming to the Table
- Iraq: Unanswered Policy Questions on U.S. Troops
- Iraq: Implications of a Pointless War
- Iraq: Book Review
- Iraq: No Drums and No Bugles: None Dare Call It Victory
- Pakistan's Leadership Sustains Flood Damage
- A French Leftist Ritual Takes on Sarkozy
- United States Losing Latin America Market Share
- The Power of Being Multilingual
- Chavez's Obsession With Past Turns Creepy and He's Not Alone
- Obama Could Help Stop Mexico's Bloodshed
- Interdependency Theory: China, India and the West
- The Dangerous Dog Days of Summer
- The Next 500 Years
- A New Plan For Nuclear Postures
- Strengthening the Political - Military Relationship
- Hydraulic Pressures: Into the Age of Water Scarcity?
- South Korea: Prosperity and Anxiety
- China Wealthy? That's Rich!
- Islamism Unveiled: From Berlin to Cairo and Back Again
- Beyond Moderates and Militants: Charting a New Course in the Middle East
- Middle East Peace Talks: Pointless Talks
- Why Israel Can't Rely on Deterrence Against Iran's Nuclear Program
- How to Handle Hamas
- Bringing Israel's Bomb Out of the Basement
- Iraq: Anxious Iraqis Look at Uncertain Future
- Iraq: U.S. Combat Troops' Departure Leaves Uncertainty in its Wake
- Iraq: A Promise Kept?
- An Unlikely Trio: Can Iran Turkey and the United States Become Allies?
- Staying Power: The U.S. Mission in Afghanistan Beyond 2011
- Long Road Ahead for Afghan Security Forces
- Afghanistan's Dirty Little Secret
- Russia's New Nobility
- Mexico Needs U.S. Help But Not Troops
- Mexico's Narco Problems Are Our Problems, and Vice Versa
- No 'I' in 'Team,' but Plenty of 'I' in India
- Afghanistan - There Can Be No Graceful Exit
- Afghanistan Timetable Remains a Factor of Uncertainty
- We Are Playing Fidel Castro's Game
- Has the Time Come to Legalize Drugs?
- Handling Tensions on the Korean Peninsula
- Richard C. Holbrooke: Pakistan Aid Inadequate
- Afghanistan Leaks Answer Few Questions
- Afghanistan & The Karzai Problem
- Afghanistan - Winds of Changing Policy
- Obama's Juggling Act in the Middle East
- Defusing Lebanon's Powder Keg
- Germany's Good Fortune Tips the Scales Against its Neighbors
- End Poverty: Export Capitalism
- Haitian Quake Hasn't Dislodged Status Quo
- Why We Go Back to Haiti
- Iraq - Mission Accomplished II
- The Fight Escalates Against Fake Drugs
- China's Coal Addiction
- Afghanistan: The Pentagon's Lost War
- Afghanistan: The Cost of Nation Building
- Afghanistan: Pentagon Papers Redux?
- Behind Iraq's Long Political Indecision
- Venezuela - Colombia Spat to Pass, Return
- Will China Rule the World?
- NATO's Future Involves More Global Partnerships
- Gloom Awaits U.S. Climate Diplomacy
- U.S. - U.K.: Difficult Duet in Afghanistan
- 'Pariah of the Pacific' Has Ham-handed Grip on Fiji
- Turkey Takes the Veil
- For Israel a Two-State Proposal Starts With Security
- Is It Too Late to Stop Iran
- The Middle East's Private Little War
- Reality and Reform for How the EU Keeps Its Peace
- Chancellor Angela Merkel's Sinking Support
- The Real Reason Why Afghanistan Is a Lost Cause
- The War Drones On
- When the 'Right War' Goes Wrong
- The Afghanistan Paradox
- Pakistan's Gambit in Afghanistan
- Obama Wasting Opportunities in Latin America
- Stopping Nuclear Proliferation Before It Starts
- Veiled Truths: The Rise of Political Islam in the West
- Steps to Stop Iran From Getting a Nuclear Bomb
- Iran: The Nuclear Containment Conundrum
- Iran: The Right Kind Of Containment
- China Is the Key to Handling Nuclear North Korea
- Coping With China's Financial Power
- What China's Currency Reform Means For Investors
- Russian-American Obstacles Overshadow Obama-Medvedev Meeting
- Russia's Courtship of Silicon Valley
- Ukrainian Blues: Viktor Yanukovych's Rise and Democracy's Fall
- Russia: Prisoners of the Caucasus
- The Afghan Challenge Is Far Tougher
- New Guard, Old Policy on Afghanistan
- Fear and Uncertainty in Afghanistan
- Afghanistan: Bribing the Enemy
- Afghanistan Poses Difficult Challenges
- Defining Success in Afghanistan
- Sad Stan, Famous Petraeus
- The Challenge of Reconciliation in Kenya
- The Tyranny of Unity in Zimbabwe
- Mexico: The New Cocaine Cowboys
- Under Santos Colombia Could Rise to the Next Level
- Autocrats' Latest Weapon: Indirect Censorship
- Latin America's Rich Should Be More Generous
- Castrocare in Crisis
(C) 2010 The World Today