Henry A. Kissinger
I supported President Obama's decision to double American forces in
The central premise is that, at some early point,
Neither the premise nor the deadline is realistic.
On the one hand,
The argument that a deadline is necessary to oblige Afghan President
Every instinct I have rebels against this conclusion. But it is essential to avoid the debilitating domestic cycle that blighted especially the
All this leaves only a narrow margin for the American effort. We are needed to bring about the space in which non-jihadist authorities can be established. But if we go beyond this into designing these political authorities, we commit ourselves to a process so prolonged and obtrusive as to risk turning even non-Taliban Afghans against us.
The facile way out is to blame the dilemma on the inadequacies of President Karzai or to advocate a simple end of the conflict by withdrawing from it.
America needs a strategy, not an alibi. We have a basic national interest to prevent jihadist Islam from gaining additional momentum, which it will surely do if it can claim to have defeated
Afghan strategy needs to be modified in four ways. The military effort should be conducted substantially on a provincial basis rather than in pursuit of a Western-style central government. The time scale for a political effort exceeds by a wide margin that available for military operations. We need a regional diplomatic framework for the next stage of Afghan strategy, whatever the military outcome. Artificial deadlines should be abandoned.
A regional diplomacy is desirable because our interests coincide substantially with those of many of the regional powers. All of them, from a strategic point of view, are more threatened by an
Is it possible to distill this common interest into a regional diplomacy? When
Could regional diplomacy seek a comparable goal for
Military operations could be sustained and legitimized by such a diplomacy. In evaluating our options, we must remember that every course will be difficult and painful, and that we need to deal with whatever strategy we pursue as a nonpartisan undertaking. Above all, we need to do justice to all those who have sacrificed in the region, particularly the long-suffering Afghan people.
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(C) 2010 Henry A. Kissinger