Michael Crawford and Jami Miscik
The New Frontier for International Law
Governments across the
Many mezzanine rulers, however, are neither on the escalator to statehood nor sliding into extinction. They enjoy a wide range of formal statuses, and some even have a stabilizing influence at home and regionally. In the Kurdish region in
Any single one of these movements can be dismissed as anomalous, but taken collectively as a phenomenon, they represent a unique long-term challenge to governments, Western policymakers, and the precepts of international law. By seeking to embed themselves irrevocably in a country's political system and win exclusive control over a segment of the population, mezzanine rulers jeopardize domestic stability. When they resort to terrorism, piracy, insurgency, or other means to advance ideological, ethnic, or nationalist agendas, they pose a threat that goes well beyond the borders of the host state. International law, which remains based on the Westphalian model of nation-states, has not kept pace with this challenge. The gulf between international law and local realities frustrates efforts to tackle the problems posed by mezzanine rulers. To remedy the resulting paralysis, Western governments must work over time to recast the international legal environment. That will be a slow process. Meanwhile, they should change their approach to these destabilizing mezzanine rulers by launching a coordinated effort to counter their appeal to local populations.SEIZING THE GROUND
Many central governments between the
Such environments are ripe for the emergence of mezzanine rulers. Disenfranchised local communities often identify with them thanks to a shared religious affiliation, ethnicity, or frustration with the government. Seeing no advantage in looking to the state for help, they see the mezzanine group as kindred, articulating their grievances and seeking to address them. Drawing on their welfare support organizations and militias, mezzanine actors can build allegiance and resilience in a way that governments find difficult to do. Their accessibility and adaptability can make national leaders look unresponsive, flat-footed, and corrupt -- as indeed they may be. Deep roots in local communities are the mark of the most successful mezzanine actors.
Of all mezzanine rulers,
By mixing religion, ideology, social welfare, politics, and occasional violence,
Most other groups are far less flexible and developed than
Mezzanine rulers are better off when their leadership and key facilities are protected by effective defensive capabilities, as are
The Pakistani Taliban, who share much of the Afghan Taliban's religious outlook but with
Indeed, unchallenged long-term territorial control is a necessary condition for mezzanine rulers to survive and to consolidate and extend their power. Al Qaeda has failed to achieve this in
No matter what form they take, once mezzanine rulers establish near-exclusive control in an area, they tend to become authoritarian and antipluralistic, ruthlessly eliminating rival groups. Mezzanine groups and their leaders lack any kind of culture of accountability, and their need for regular income makes them prone to corruption and organized crime. It is often difficult for counterinsurgency forces to distinguish the criminal from the politically motivated. In
Despite the obstacles mezzanine rulers generally face in establishing authority, the pendulum has swung in their favor in the
The spread of modern communications technology has eroded one of the state's historical advantages in the
Mezzanine rulers have also benefited from a shift in military technology that gives nonconventional actors an advantage over conventional forces. Relatively cheap and accessible military technologies, including improvised explosive devices and explosively formed projectiles, give unconventional forces an edge in what the British general
Mezzanine rulers that cannot develop their own military technologies have increasingly been able to rely from their inception on outside government support.
Deploying its particular brand of political venture capitalism,
The final factor that has favored mezzanine rulers is the increasing scrutiny governments have to endure from foreign media and the international community, which tends to make them more risk averse. Mezzanine rulers, on the other hand, are subject to limited accountability, domestically and internationally, and therefore are inclined to take greater risks. They are generally secretive, repressive, and distrustful of outsiders, and they tolerate Western media only when they can use them for their own propaganda purposes. Mezzanine rulers generally lie beyond the scope of international law, arguing that they are subject only to the laws of their host state, however powerless its government is to enforce them. When the international spotlight does focus on them, the attention is usually even more uncomfortable for their sponsoring state. This explains
Because of these advantages, broad stretches of territory in at least a dozen countries in the
The disparity between how these governments function and how their citizens believe they should fuels disillusionment among the public. Many communities view the ruling elite as illegitimate and as corrupt fronts for ethnic or sectarian interests rather than as governments acting for the entire population. Distrustful of the government, people turn to mezzanine rulers to safeguard their interests and living standards. This, in turn, allows mezzanine rulers to argue -- as have al Qaeda and
But even well-organized mezzanine groups that fail to root themselves in and establish exclusive control of a territory will not prevail against a strong central government. In
In weak states where mezzanine rulers have achieved exclusive control over some territory, they can participate in the host state's political process in various ways. They might become a political party (as has
Under current international law, the government in each of the examples outlined above remains accountable for all actions, including those of mezzanine rulers, within the territory over which it has sovereignty. This responsibility is grounded in the traditional Westphalian principle of territorial sovereignty and was reaffirmed in the resolution that the
The international community was not much troubled by the inability of some states to control all of their own territory when the consequences were only local, but ungoverned space is now being exploited by mezzanine actors to launch transnational terrorist attacks, interfere with international transportation, or destabilize governments, with devastating results for international peace and stability.
International law has previously developed rules for national liberation and secessionist movements on the assumption that they would graduate to statehood status. According to the 1977 additional protocols to the Geneva Conventions, for example, such movements have the same duty to protect civilians as does any national government in a time of war. Early on, however, continued efforts to develop such rules were thwarted by the international community's desire to avoid the breakup of existing states and by disagreements over how to differentiate between nationalist movements and terrorist organizations in cases such as that of the
As a result, there is now a growing number of near states that have received no formal recognition for political reasons. Examples are Somaliland, which declared itself independent from
With no effective Somali government, it is impossible for the international community to gain official consent to conduct counterterrorism or antipiracy operations in or off the coast of
The precarious situation in
A review of existing international law should also recognize that the mid-twentieth-century model of international relations, which drew a clear distinction between war (to which the law of armed conflict applies) and peace (to which regular international law applies), is outmoded. Just as the distinction between conventional and irregular warfare has eroded, so "war amongst the people" has shaded into routinized violence. Mezzanine rulers tend to specialize in this kind of war, and if future warfare is to take the form of counterinsurgency in constricted civilian environments, then international law on such issues must be reconsidered.ENGAGEMENT AND SCRUTINY
A concerted effort to recalibrate international law will take time. In the interim, Western governments should reconsider their own political approaches to mezzanine rulers. It is in the West's interest for the governments of the
Western policymakers should study what voids mezzanine rulers fill for local communities. If these rulers have legitimate political objectives, local governments and the West must try to transform them into normal political parties without paramilitary arms. Then they would be subject to all the constraints that come with regular participation in political processes. By encouraging political dialogue, investment in education and social welfare, anticorruption measures, and fairness in the political process, the West could help reduce people's identification with mezzanine rulers, making them redundant.
Western governments will have to distinguish mezzanine rulers that can be engaged, such as those in Somaliland and perhaps
In his speech in
Western countries may not be able to do much to redress the changes in communications and weaponry that have favored mezzanine rulers in the past few years. They have already expended much diplomatic effort toward stopping states from deploying mezzanine rulers against neighbors. Subjecting mezzanine rulers to greater international scrutiny is one way the West could do more. This would expose mezzanine rulers to outside influences and force them to justify their actions. The increased accountability would diminish their appetite for adventurism.
The most effective form of scrutiny is likely to come from within the host states and from those citizens who are close to but not part of the mezzanine rulers' support base. These people are best placed to wage the battle of opinion and values and to recapture support for the state. A carefully directed information campaign by the West could help cast a harsh light on the darker workings of mezzanine rulers. The deliberate erosion of the mezzanine actors' myths and cult of resistance will be vital to success.ARCHITECTURAL REMODELING
Today's Western commentators and policymakers are preoccupied with the passing of U.S. hegemony and the shift of power toward
Just as
MICHAEL CRAWFORD, a Consulting Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in London, previously served the British government overseas in Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. JAMI MISCIK is President and Vice Chair of Kissinger Associates and former Deputy Director for Intelligence at the CIA.
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