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Andres Oppenheimer
Why wait until after legislative elections in Venezuela for an analysis? Argentine columnist Carolina Barros asked a few days ago. We already know the results: yet another win for President Hugo Chávez, she wrote.
Are she and other foreign observers right in predicting that Chávez will win, thanks to a fraudulent electoral process? Or can the opposition surprise us with an upset victory, as it did in a 2007 constitutional referendum that would have given Chávez even greater powers?
Barros' column in
Indeed, thanks to new electoral rules, pro-Chávez states enjoy much greater congressional representation than anti-Chávez states. As Venezuelan pollster Luis Vicente Leon said at last week's
Thus, the opposition could win the popular vote, but Chávez would still have a majority in the
In addition, Chávez controls much of Venezuela's television time, thanks to outright censorship, including the 2007 closing of the independent RCTV television network, intimidation of media companies through judicial actions against their owners, and financial help through pro-government advertising.
Finally, Chávez has another important advantage, which is that some likely opposition voters may stay at home on
But, despite the uneven race, pollsters are predicting a photo finish on Sunday.
Venezuela's Hinterlaces polling firm says 34 percent of likely voters are planning to vote for opposition candidates, while 32 percent for pro-Chávez candidates, and the remainder are undecided or will vote for independent candidates.
Even so, the opposition would win 69 seats in
Another survey by Venezuela's Datanálisis firm shows that 27 percent of likely voters are planning to vote for pro-Chávez candidates, 25 percent for opposition candidates, and the remainder are undecided, or planning to vote for independents. Both polls have a margin of error of 3 percent, making the outcome even more unpredictable.
"What's at stake on Sunday is not who will control
My opinion: I agree. As Barros and other Venezuela watchers accurately state, the dice are heavily loaded in Chávez's favor, and he will retain a congressional majority no matter what. But if Chávez doesn't win a two-thirds majority in
If the opposition can move from its current near-zero congressional representation -- the result of its disastrous 2005 decision to boycott the electoral process -- to 58 seats in the
If it reaches a 67-seat congressional minority, it could even block Chávez's ability to rule by decree, and could start congressional inquiries into massive government corruption.
The bottom line is that, if we can call the results of a fraudulent process a "victory," Chávez will win. But if the opposition does well in Sunday's election, its new presence in the
Available at Amazon.com:
At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes
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World - Hugo Chávez May Lose Even if He Wins | Global Viewpoint