Robert I. Rotberg
More than a year into a supposed unity government between
The unity government was born in 2009, after Mugabe finally agreed to share power under pressure from the
From the beginning, Mugabe has run roughshod over the unity compact. Although some ministries were assigned to the MDC and some to ZANU-PF, the key
Mugabe has repeatedly permitted -- if not directly approved -- attacks by the regime's soldiers and police on defenseless MDC leaders. So far this year, there have been more than 200 attacks by the police and ZANU-PF vigilantes against local MDC officials, members, and presumed sympathizers. In March and April, to make sure that villagers backed a much-disputed draft constitution that Mugabe and his associates have been attempting to foist on Zimbabweans, ZANU-PF reopened so-called torture camps in four parts of the country. Meanwhile, thugs loyal to Mugabe have directly threatened Tsvangirai and attacked his office, and it is conceivable that they arranged a
The top brass of the army, the air force, and the police are all slavishly loyal to Mugabe. He has enmeshed the security forces in a dense web of state-sponsored corruption since 1998, when Zimbabwean troops entered the war in the
I knew Mugabe in the 1960s and 1970s, when he emerged from prison and fled to
Ten years ago, I wrote in these pages, "Venal leaders are the curse of
DESTROYING A NATION
In 2002, according to the census,
The unity government was meant to end the economic ruin brought about by Mugabe's tyranny. Raging against a constitutional referendum that he lost in early 2000, Mugabe sent pro-regime thugs to oust white farmers, 70 percent of whom had purchased their farms in the 1980s with his government's permission. By 2005, most of the 4,500 white farm owners had been forced off their land, many fleeing to neighboring African countries and
The farm invasions persist despite rulings against them in a SADC regional court and within the South African court system, where South African citizens ousted from farms in
ZANU-PF has carried out an even bigger heist in the country's east. The area near Mutare holds a vast reservoir of alluvial industrial diamond deposits. Although the largest and most profitable deposit in the country, Marange, is officially owned by
The toothless Kimberley Process, an international initiative meant to segregate "blood diamonds" from nonconflict diamonds, has failed to stop stolen Zimbabwean diamonds from entering the world market. Many of these diamonds find their way into neighboring
Perhaps a third of
Despite its many flaws and weaknesses, the unity government has nevertheless helped make life in
In late 2009, Biti also began paying civil servants
Overall,
AVOIDING A BLOODBATH
Tsvangirai understands better than anyone how little the unity government has accomplished when it comes to curbing Mugabe's power and protecting MDC supporters from violence. Yet preferring to work from within and make incremental improvements to the country's governance, he has decided to remain prime minister. He does not believe that a Georgian- or a Ukrainian-style revolution is possible in
Mugabe's security apparatus is so strong and entrenched, Tsvangirai believes, that any active protest, whether in urban or rural areas, would be met with overwhelming force, resulting in thousands of deaths. Tsvangirai does not want to risk bloodshed, nor is he prepared to test these assumptions without first being convinced that enough sympathetic individuals within the security forces would hold their fire or defect. Probes by the MDC have found legions of supposed sympathizers in the military, but too few are prepared to risk their own lives by opposing the Mugabe regime.
Tsvangirai and others are now playing for time. Mugabe turned 86 in February and is rumored to have prostate cancer. If he dies soon of natural causes, there will be a battle within ZANU-PF to succeed him and retain the privileges and perquisites of power. One contender would be Emmerson Mnangagwa, currently the minister of defense and a close ally of
But none of these contenders has a solid political following. Tsvangirai and the MDC, by contrast, can claim to have vast popular appeal; they have won every national election since 2000 (although Mugabe rigged the results to make it appear otherwise). Tsvangirai calculates that if he remains the sitting prime minister, he will be seen as both an obvious and a credible successor by
Many of Tsvangirai's supporters want him to be more assertive in opposing Mugabe and positioning the MDC as a true alternative government. They are not prepared to wait for Mugabe's death, particularly since the unity government has so far accomplished little. They want Tsvangirai to take a stronger stand against harassment and double-dealing. They also want him to police the MDC more thoroughly to avoid any traces of corruption or illegitimacy.
Some internal critics have urged Tsvangirai to turn his back on the unity government altogether. Doing so, they argue, could demonstrate to Zimbabweans and the world that the MDC is not yoked to unity just for the positions and incomes that it has delivered to Tsvangirai and Biti and a handful of others -- a growing perception among ordinary Zimbabweans. But if the MDC left the government, Tsvangirai would lose what little leverage he currently has.
Tsvangirai may further calculate that
Biti, believing that
SPINELESS SADC
So far,
Vacillation and tentativeness are the hallmark's of Zuma's "Vicar of
Although the South African public and the ANC rank and file, including its affiliated
South African-sponsored talks between the MDC and ZANU-PF have dragged on since October, with no success in sight. A visit from Zuma to Mugabe brought reports of change, but by May it was clear that Mugabe would not appoint MDC provincial governors or remove Gono as the central bank governor or
President
WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
Clinton, whose voice is influential in key African capitals, could pressure Mugabe by promising to provide SADC leaders with meaningful financial assistance and positive publicity if they agreed to ban Mugabe's official aircraft from crossing neighboring airspace. This would end the Mugabe family's penchant for shopping trips to
Clinton should then appoint a strong regional envoy with ambassadorial status with the goal of ending violence and human rights abuses in
Additional incentives could be offered to the Zimbabwean government as well, such as new funds with which to jumpstart the faltering economy and aid for agriculture, industry, and infrastructure. Dangling such incentives would entice potential successors to push Mugabe out now in order to get the benefits. A roving regional ambassador with Clinton's backing could make these offers persuasively and demonstrate finally that
If
A sad statistic demonstrates the full tragedy of Mugabe's misrule: in 1965, most of
Available at Amazon.com:
At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes
- Stopping Nuclear Proliferation Before It Starts
- Veiled Truths: The Rise of Political Islam in the West
- Steps to Stop Iran From Getting a Nuclear Bomb
- Iran: The Nuclear Containment Conundrum
- Iran: The Right Kind Of Containment
- China Is the Key to Handling Nuclear North Korea
- Coping With China's Financial Power
- What China's Currency Reform Means For Investors
- Russian-American Obstacles Overshadow Obama-Medvedev Meeting
- Russia's Courtship of Silicon Valley
- Ukrainian Blues: Viktor Yanukovych's Rise and Democracy's Fall
- Russia: Prisoners of the Caucasus
- The Afghan Challenge Is Far Tougher
- New Guard, Old Policy on Afghanistan
- Fear and Uncertainty in Afghanistan
- Afghanistan: Bribing the Enemy
- Afghanistan Poses Difficult Challenges
- Defining Success in Afghanistan
- Sad Stan, Famous Petraeus
- The Challenge of Reconciliation in Kenya
- The Tyranny of Unity in Zimbabwe
- Mexico: The New Cocaine Cowboys
- Under Santos Colombia Could Rise to the Next Level
- Autocrats' Latest Weapon: Indirect Censorship
- Latin America's Rich Should Be More Generous
- Castrocare in Crisis
(C) 2010 Foreign Affairs