A U.S. Foreign Policy for the Age of Economic Power
Most nations today beat their foreign policy drums largely to economic rhythms, but less so
The model already exists for such an economic-centric world and for a policy to match: the approach of U.S. Presidents
The most ferocious fight will be over how to rejuvenate the U.S. economy. Everyone agrees that it must be fixed, lest the nation face further decline and more dangers. But few agree on how. The basic must-do list is lengthy, unforgiving, and depressingly obvious: improve public schools to sustain democracy and restore global competitiveness; upgrade the physical infrastructure critical to economic efficiency and homeland security; reduce public debt, the interest on which is devouring revenue; stimulate the economy to create jobs; and promote new sources of energy and freer trade to increase jobs, lower foreign debt, and reduce dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
Even as politicians and experts do their war dances on these do-or-die domestic issues, they will grapple over foreign policy, as they should.
The modern world has experienced two periods of globalization, both of which brought about new highs in trade and investment. Both sparked hopes that the common pursuit of riches would overshadow traditional military rivalries and sustain peace. The dreams of the first era, which lasted from 1880 to 1914, drowned in the blood of World War I, then World War II, and finally the Cold War -- close to a century of war. Many expect that the current era of globalization, which began as the Cold War faded, will also end unhappily. Yet the current era differs from the past in three crucial ways: unlike the German empire of yesteryear, today's surging power,
In the pre-World War I era,
Skeptics today argue that
Also reducing the likelihood of conflict today is that there is no arena in which the vital interests of great powers seriously clash. Indeed, the most worrisome security threats today -- rogue states with nuclear weapons and terrorists with weapons of mass destruction -- actually tend to unite the great powers more than divide them. In the past, and specifically during the first era of globalization, major powers would war over practically nothing. Back then, they fought over the Balkans, a region devoid of resources and geographic importance, a strategic zero. Today, they are unlikely to shoulder their arms over almost anything, even the highly strategic
To an unprecedented degree, the major powers now need one another to grow their economies, and they are loath to jeopardize this interdependence by allowing traditional military and strategic competitions to escalate into wars. In the past, U.S. enemies -- such as the
Given the receding threat of great-power war, leaders around the world can afford to elevate economic priorities as never before. To be sure, leaders throughout history have pursued economic strength as the foundation of state power, but power itself was equated with military might. Today, the prevailing idea is that economic strength should be applied primarily toward achieving economic -- not military -- ends. Money is what counts most, so most nations limit their spending on standing armies and avoid military interventions. What preoccupies most leaders is trade, investment, access to markets, exchange rates, additional riches for the rich, and a better life for the rest.
This trend is plain among the rising regional powers known as the BRIC countries (
And yet, for all the novel characteristics of the present era, there is one stunning constant: the national security strategy of
The best U.S. strategy for this new era is to update the approach taken by Truman and Eisenhower during the early Cold War. Its underlying principles were to make the American economy the top priority, even if it meant tamping down military spending and military interventions; to strengthen the economies of key allies, especially in
To strengthen the economy, Truman and Eisenhower leveraged foreign threats to initiate economic projects at home. Eisenhower used the Soviets' launching of Sputnik to advocate crash programs in math and science, for example, and he convinced
Truman and Eisenhower carried out their reforms while holding military spending in check -- Pentagon budgets came last, not first. Both presidents allocated defense outlays using the "remainder method," whereby they subtracted necessary domestic spending from tax revenues and gave the leftovers (the "residual," as Eisenhower called it) to defense. Presidents could not repeat that math given today's politics, but they could approach Pentagon requests more skeptically and lower them accordingly. Eisenhower and Truman were particularly conscious of the ill effects of being a debtor nation. As such, they both essentially balanced the federal budget. This course still represents the right direction, especially at a time when
Today, the Truman and Eisenhower approach would almost certainly revolutionize basic priorities -- for example, by elevating
By following a second basic principle -- to not just strengthen
Of course, the present-day U.S. economy barely resembles that of the Truman and Eisenhower days. Today, trade accounts for about one-quarter of U.S. GDP, more than double its share during the early Cold War years. Trillions of dollars cross national boundaries daily, mostly unconstrained by governments.
No matter how compelling the case for an economic focus to U.S. strategy, the effort will falter unless
Moreover, both
The most serious threats to U.S. security come from rogue states with or in the process of acquiring nuclear capabilities, failed and failing states that could breed or house terrorists, and international terrorists themselves. The strategic question here is whether to combat these dangers with substantial military interventions or to rely on deterrence, containment, and aid. Land wars should be undertaken if and only if the following criteria are met: the threat is unique to the country posing it and clearly a danger to U.S. security; only land forces can neutralize that threat, and they can do so within a few years and at a reasonable cost; and the local population will fight for itself, fully supporting the effort and understanding from the outset that it will be its own prime defender. Short of that,
Regarding rogue states such as
Terrorists willing to commit suicide are another proposition entirely. They are not at all likely to be deterred. They can destroy ports and trade towers with conventional means and could inflict untold damage if they acquired nuclear material for a so-called dirty bomb. And they can do so irrespective of the outcomes of the U.S. land wars in
Truman and Eisenhower did not have to contend with these threats in their modern forms. In their time, rogues and terrorists could largely be controlled by
Truman accepted the Korean War for unique and justifiable reasons.
Truman and Eisenhower most likely would have responded to 9/11 by allying with Afghan neighbors to contain the Taliban, deterring the Taliban by threatening to punish them if they provided safe haven for al Qaeda, dividing the Taliban with diplomatic offers, encouraging the formation of a new government in
Today,
In this environment, the first-tier foreign policy goals of
The organizing principle of U.S. foreign policy should be to use power to solve common problems. The good old days of being able to command others by making military or economic threats are largely gone. Even the weakest nations can resist the strongest ones or drive up the costs for submission. Now, U.S. power derives mainly from others' knowing that they cannot solve their problems without
No matter the decline in U.S. power, most nations do not doubt that
To attract the necessary partners,
U.S. policymakers must also be patient. The weakest of nations today can resist and delay. Pressing prematurely for decisions -- an unfortunate hallmark of U.S. style -- results in failure, the prime enemy of power. Success breeds power, and failure breeds weakness. Even when various domestic constituencies shout for quick action,
To be sure, U.S. presidents need to preserve
U.S. leaders forever swear their allegiance to making the tough choices to restore the U.S. economy. But they never deliver. Equally often, they appear to grasp the need for a new foreign policy for the age of economic power. But that, too, they fail to deliver. President
LESLIE H. GELB is President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. He was a senior official in the U.S. Defense Department from 1967 to 1969 and in the State Department from 1977 to 1979, and he was a Columnist and Editor at The New York Times from 1981 to 1993.
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