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By Mohamad Bazzi
Interviewee: Mohamad Bazzi, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies,
Interviewer: Deborah Jerome, Deputy Editor, CFR.org
Tensions are high in Lebanon, as a UN tribunal is reportedly due to hand down indictments in the 2005 assassination of Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.
Q. Why are there concerns that the Hariri indictments could lead to new sectarian violence in Lebanon? Do you agree with these concerns?
A. Nasrallah revealed in a speech last week that Hariri's son and the current Lebanese prime minister, Saad Hariri, told him that the tribunal is preparing to name several
Such violence could also affect Lebanon's fragile political balance. In May 2008,
Within days, the government rescinded its orders,
Q. Why is there tension between Syria and Saudi Arabia about the Hariri investigation? What was the purpose of the meeting between Saudi King Abdullah and Bashir al-Assad in Lebanon last week, and what did it accomplish?
A. The roots of the Saudi-Syrian conflict go back years. After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Bush administration turned its attention to Damascus as another candidate for "regime change." Syria meddled in Iraq, nurtured Palestinian militants opposed to peace with Israel, and dominated its smaller neighbor Lebanon. As Washington sought to isolate Damascus, some Arab powers -- especially Saudi Arabia -- became hostile to Bashar Assad and his growing reliance on Iran. The Bush administration imposed economic sanctions in 2004, accusing Syria of sheltering Iraqi Ba'athist leaders and allowing Islamic militants to cross into Iraq and fight U.S. forces. The U.S. policy of sanctions and isolation accelerated after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, which Washington blamed on Syria.
Hariri was close to the Saudi royal family, and his death further strained relations between Syria and the kingdom. Things reached a new low during the 2006 war between Israel and
In response to the cold shoulder from the United States and its Arab allies, Assad became more dependent on Iran (a partnership that began in the early 1980s under Assad's father, Hafez). Iran helped shore up the Syrian economy with construction investments and cheap oil.
Assad and King Abdullah traveled together to Beirut last week to meet with Lebanese leaders and help calm fears that the country is once again headed toward civil strife. The visit was meant to show the Arab world that Saudi-Syrian reconciliation is on track. It was also a message from Assad to Washington: Lebanon cannot remain stable without Syria's tutelage.
Q. How do the Lebanese feel about this renewed Syrian effort to inject itself into Lebanese affairs? At the time of Hariri's murder, most Lebanese were furious with Syria.
A. Many Lebanese are worried that Syria is once again trying to dominate Lebanon, as it did for fifteen years after the end of the civil war in 1990. The joint visit by Assad and King Abdullah was a signal that Saudi Arabia and other Arab powers are comfortable with Syrian domination over Lebanon, if it means that Damascus would maintain internal stability in its neighbor. The visit was also a signal that the Arab states are trying to prevent Iran from securing greater influence over Lebanon through its longstanding financial and military support of
Since Hariri's assassination, each Lebanese faction has accused the other of serving external masters. Lebanon is indeed part of the proxy war in the region: Iran and Syria (which support
While Syria is allied with
At the same time, it is a mistake to assume that the latest diplomatic maneuvering means Syria is prepared to abandon Iran, or is ready to fall in line behind Washington. The Syrian-Iranian alliance has endured for nearly thirty years; it cannot be undone lightly. Yet Assad is also keen to reverse a period of intense isolation that began after the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Syria had not been shunned this deeply since the early 1980s, when Damascus broke with most of the Arab world to support Iran in its war with Iraq.
Q. Is this week's border incident likely to be the spark that ignites the violence many have been anticipating? Both a CFR Contingency Planning Memo by Daniel Kurzer and a recent ICG report talk about the fact that the deterrence regime has helped keep the peace but also perpetuated a process of mutually reinforcing military preparations. Do you agree?
A. Lebanon's southern frontier with Israel is the most volatile border in the Middle East today, and it could easily spiral out of control. The fighting that broke out on Tuesday between Lebanese and Israeli troops underscores the fragile situation along the border.
Last November, Saad Hariri became prime minister after he agreed to share power with
In July 2006,
The border has been flaring up over the past year: Two suspected
Q. Is there any way to defuse these building tensions, both in terms of the Hariri investigation as well as the border military buildup?
A. The Obama administration can avert a new conflict by keeping its attention focused on Lebanon, continuing to support Hariri's government, and helping to strengthen state institutions like the Lebanese army. But U.S. officials must eventually reach out to
Neither Israel nor
Available at Amazon.com:
At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes
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