Andres Oppenheimer
There is a consensus among foreign policy pundits that
That was one of the main conclusions I drew from a panel titled "
There is no question that
The economy is expected to grow by a healthy 5 percent this year, the country has recently found some of the world's largest offshore oil reserves, and
Time magazine -- in an excess of journalistic hype -- recently named Lula as "the most influential person in the world." The British weekly, The Economist, had earlier carried a cover story titled "
PREDICTABLE COUNTRY
Two new books published in
At the Conference of the Americas' panel, all participants stressed that
That will not change after next month's presidential elections, which will likely be won by Lula's Worker's Party candidate Dilma Rousseff, they said.
Several panelists pointed at potential dangers, including an outdated infrastructure, and poor education levels. Some cautioned that the ruling Worker's Party may become so overconfident if it wins by a landslide that it may revert to nationalist-statist policies of the past, and that Rousseff -- if elected -- may not have Lula's charisma to rein in ultra-leftists within the party.
"One thing that worries me a little bit is that I see in the Worker's Party a little bit of triumphalism," said Rohter, who was one of the panelists. "There is almost a hubris, a sense that they invented the wheel, an unwillingness to acknowledge the role that the commodities boom has played in the success of the last 16 years."
That is leading some sectors of the ruling party to think that
COOLHEADED POPULATION
Will hubris derail
"One of the healthy things that have happened is that Brazilians are no longer talking about
My opinion: I hope Rohter is right, because one of the things I noticed in my recent trips to
In almost every interview with Chinese and Indian officials, I was struck by their concerns that their respective countries are not expanding their education, science and technology sectors as fast as other countries, and that they are falling behind. I haven't seen the same humbleness in interviews with Brazilian officials.
The Chinese and the Indians have a healthy dose of constructive paranoia, which drives them to constantly improve themselves. Unless
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At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes
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(C) 2010 Andres Oppenheimer