Charles W. Dunne
Interviewee:
Interviewer:
Iraqi political leader
Still, Dunne says, the deal doesn't hinge on Allawi, and many members of Iraqiya "think they should stick to the deal, take the government ministries if they can, and continue to participate in the government."
The bigger challenge will come, says Dunne, as horse-trading begins on forming the new government.
Q. What are the components of the agreement reached by Iraqi political parties recently on forming a new government?
A. It involved essentially two agreements. First was the agreement between the negotiators for the various political blocs, which resulted in a decision to allow
The second and even more important agreement was signed
Q. Was the decision for
A. Yes. It was generally agreed that the representative of the Kurdish people would retain the presidency, though this was in question even up to the last minute. President Obama had, in fact, called Talabani, asking him to consider stepping down as part of the deal to allow Allawi's bloc to gain that post. Talabani refused because the Kurds decided they wanted to hold that as an important symbolic and political post, but that was in play until very late in the game.
Q. Two days after Allawi's walkout, the Iraqiya group returned to the parliament and a member of the Iraqiya group,
A. What's happening is that Allawi is, in part, expressing his displeasure with the fact that the Iraqiya bloc, which got the plurality of seats in the
Part of Allawi's understanding was that at that first session of Parliament, there would be a vote on the de-Ba'athification procedures, which barred some of the Sunni candidates from being elected -- including leading members of his coalition: Rasen al-Awadi,
Q.
So, this is not strictly a made-in-
Q. A key question is how important this new
A. That's correct. This council has not yet been enshrined in Iraqi law. There is a school of thought that believes there will need to be a constitutional amendment to make it serve as an effective check on the prime minister's power. This is all going to be very contentious and the outcome is very uncertain, which is probably one of the reasons why Allawi said, before he departed for
In addition, there are very different views among the Iraqi political leadership about how this council should function. Maliki clearly sees it as an advisory body, whose advice he can ignore. Allawi and a number of his supporters see it as a venue in which national security decisions by the prime minister, and important economic decisions, can be altered or vetoed. Even if legislation has passed to create a fairly robust council, the concept of this council as it exists right now will require 80 percent consensus within the council in order to implement a decision, which in this political system -- as in any political system -- is going to be extremely difficult.
Q. It looks to many observers that the big foreign winner in all this is
A. It's true to a certain extent. The Iranians had been working for months to achieve a deal which would return Maliki to office for a second term, along with the Shiite religious parties who were his major supporters. They achieved this end, and now they're in a position to take advantage of this as we go forward toward the end of 2011 and the ultimate U.S. withdrawal from the country.
But
Q. If Allawi does not return to this coalition, is the deal dead? Would the Iraqis have to start all over again?
A. I don't believe the deal is strictly dependent on whether Allawi is going to participate in the government. There are a lot of reports that there is dissension within the Iraqiya bloc on the extent to which it should continue to participate in the government. A lot of people within Iraqiya think they should stick to the deal, take the government ministries if they can, and continue to participate in the government. Only time will tell, but it may be that Allawi is a one-man band that's marching in the other direction from the rest of his coalition.
Q. And the U.S. position since Allawi's walkout is what?
A. The U.S. position is that we wish Allawi to participate in the government, but we believe that there is a deal, that the deal is a good one worth testing, and that Iraqiya should continue to participate in the government, despite the reactions of individual personalities. Everybody in the U.S. administration expected that any deal, especially if it was a good one, would dissatisfy people across the political spectrum.
Q. I guess we just have to wait and observe.
A. That's right. I think the harder part is coming. After Parliament reconvenes on
Basically, three questions need to be decided. First, what percentage of seats does each bloc get? Second, which positions will these blocs fill? And third, which personalities are going to fill the positions? All of these will have a major impact on whether the next government can work together cooperatively and effectively, on how much influence
Q. With U.S. forces leaving at the end of 2011, can the U.S. embassy replace the military effectively?
A. The problem is how
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