Roger Thurow
Throughout this past summer, in the long-suffering hills of western
As he patrolled the hillsides one day last June,
He meant the future of
Malthusian predictions that relentless population growth will outstrip food production and trigger starvation worldwide have recurred over the centuries. They have come and then gone as farmers have deployed new technologies to increase food output. Even now, enough food is being produced to adequately feed every person on the planet; the fact that nearly one billion people are nonetheless going hungry is a damning indictment of the world's food-distribution system. But since demand is growing, production will also have to increase in the years ahead. With the world's population expected to expand to more than nine billion by 2050 and much of that growth occurring in
The countries that managed quantum leaps in agricultural production in the past cannot be counted on for repeat performances, unless great leaps in technology introduce new strains of seeds or suddenly turn unproductive lands into fertile soil.
Likewise, future productivity gains in the grain-belt fields of the former Soviet states and in
Thus, more and more eyes are turning to
RIPE FOR REVOLUTION
How did
"The Green Revolution has not yet been won," warned
By the late 1970s, Borlaug's simple idea of helping the world's small farmers -- also the world's hungriest people -- feed themselves had become more complicated to implement. Environmentalists criticized the green revolution for introducing fertilizers and pesticides to hundreds of millions of acres of land; their overuse was creating a new kind of pollution. Social scientists worried that bringing the notion of surpluses and profits to smallholder farmers would upset the harmony of rural villages by creating debt and prompting land grabs. Research for new breeds of seeds and better soil nourishment to improve the yields of the world's poorest farmers dwindled; priorities shifted to producing safer food in environmentally friendly ways for the world's well-fed.
Overall funding from rich nations for agricultural projects in the developing world also collapsed. According to the
UNEVEN PLOWING FIELDS
This precipitous drop in research and aid came just as international development theory began to doubt whether helping farmers in poor nations was the most effective way to fight hunger and poverty. In the 1980s, the
But in most African countries, the private sector was too small, too weak, and too undercapitalized to lead agricultural development; supply enough seeds and fertilizers; buy, transport, and store harvests; or build domestic and export markets. Starved of assistance, the continent's agricultural infrastructure -- research institutions, the roads connecting farms to markets, the network of so-called extension agents who carry new information and technology to farmers, post-harvest storage and distribution capability -- fell into a woeful state (refuting, it seems, the arguments of those who insisted that
Meanwhile, the international development community was asking African governments to stop subsidizing African farmers to encourage them to plant as much as possible. Many African governments were happy to follow this lead: even though small farmers made up a majority of the population in much of
Still, at the time, the prevailing idea was that
What happened was that imported crops displaced locally grown food throughout the developing world, crushing both the incentives of poor peasants to farm and
U.S. policy failed them next. During the 2003 famine, the U.S. government spent more than
Soon, the drought that had struck
FROM BREADBASKET TO BASKET CASE
On the tail of the 2003 famine, African governments got fed up with the prevailing doctrine. At a meeting in
To those who did not heed the African famine of 2003, the global food crisis of 2008 should have been a wake-up call. By then, it was clear that if Borlaug had managed for a time to give the world a lead in the race to keep food production ahead of population growth, the global food supply was now far less secure. With the world's population getting bigger and wealthier, the demand for grain-fed meat and dairy products was escalating. At the same time, the continued volatility of oil prices was driving a major rise in the production of alternative sources of fuel, many made from foodstuffs. (By 2009, about 30 percent of
HARVESTING POTENTIAL
Also in contrast to much of the rest of the world, land and water resources in
Remedying these problems, and tapping
But others can help. The scientific institutes that transformed
HELPING HANDS
U.S. President Barack Obama, whose relatives still till the soil of
The U.S. government has rallied international support for Feed the Future by citing global security concerns, pointing, for example, to the rioting that struck dozens of countries during the 2008 food crisis. At
Standing beside Geithner that spring day was
According to the
In addition to security concerns and business opportunities, there is, of course, the moral imperative to promote an African agricultural revolution. In its latest report on hunger trends, the
GETTING TO GROWTH
Nongovernmental organizations are also zeroing in on agriculture as the key way to reduce hunger and poverty in
A few years ago, fresh from
Often, the efforts of social entrepreneurs naturally complement the official actions of governments, even when there are no direct ties between the two. In
Many obstacles will have to be overcome before an agricultural revolution can be sown in
After several decades of neglect by the continent's own governments and the outside world,
But the rich world neglects
ROGER THUROW is Senior Fellow on Global Agriculture and Food Policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He is a co-author, with Scott Kilman, of Enough: Why the World's Poorest Starve in an Age of Plenty.
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