Turkey does not fit neatly into anyone's conception of the world order. For centuries, people have debated or fought over whether it is part of
This past summer, Turkey trod on two hot-button U.S. policy interests,
Throw enough mud and some will stick, a Turkish saying goes. Once more, Turkey seems to have become a whipping boy for all manner of interests, some of which have little to do with the realities of Turkey itself.
The main target of the criticisms is the Justice and
Lucky circumstances helped the AKP from the get-go. The 1990s were miserable in Turkey, due to weak governments, three-digit inflation, open military interference in politics, and the vicious conflict between
Progress with EU accession had also helped spark an economic boom. Buoyed by global economic dynamism after 2001,
Helped by this new prosperity, its own reasonably good governance, the EU's opening of formal accession negotiations in 2005, and the public's rejection of a military attempt to derail Turkish democracy, the AKP easily won reelection in 2007. But the EU accession process, which did so much for Turkey earlier in the decade, has since slowed to a crawl. The leaders of
As a result, the AKP became hesitant to implement the difficult and expensive domestic reforms necessary to prepare Turkey to meet the EU's accession criteria. Meanwhile, the Turkish political consensus on EU membership was falling apart anyway. This was partly an emotional reaction to
These problems are well illustrated by the fate of the AKP's efforts on
As with economic matters, the AKP's move toward improving relations with
Since taking power, the AKP has pursued normalization much further. Davutoglu, the current foreign minister, has said that his goals are the "settlement of disputes" that "directly or indirectly concern Turkey" and balancing realism and idealism in the country's foreign policy. He promotes a doctrine of "strategic depth," invoking
However, not all of the AKP's zero-problem initiatives have worked out as planned. In addition to the continued problems with
The timing for the shift seemed right: over the past decade, academics, the media, and the public in Turkey had started to display unprecedented openness about "the Armenian question." And the benefits could be great. A warming of relations with
Unfortunately,
And yet, despite such setbacks, the AKP's zero-problem policy has been largely beneficial and has gone a long way toward defining a new international role for Turkey. It marks
The
Turkey has long had good reasons to minimize its differences with
Although
Improved regional transportation could facilitate energy transfers, potentially an important area for regional cooperation. The AKP has been normalizing relations with the Kurds of northern
Small signs of progress are visible in almost all sectors. Friction over
Partly as a result, formal coordination between the Turkish government and Middle Eastern governments is also increasing. In 2009, Turkey,
Further progress may be an uphill battle. Some Arab leaders have been skeptical of
Still, the situation today is considerably better than that in the 1980s and 1990s.
Pursuing the zero-problem policy has been a brave move, especially as the approach continues to be tested, sometimes sorely. In addition to stalled talks over the status of
Some, not least in
The AKP deserves more credit than it gets. Until
And then there was the Mavi Marmara incident, in which Israeli commandos launched a surprise night-time raid on the ship, the lead boat in a flotilla, while it was still in international waters. When they encountered resistance from passengers wielding improvised weapons such as knives, iron bars, and broomsticks, they shot dead eight Turkish citizens and a Turkish American. The Israeli government claims that one of its soldiers had been shot in the stomach first; the Turkish government claims that the Israelis opened fire well before boarding the Mavi Marmara and that the Turkish activists never used guns.
Turkey and
Faith in
Once again,
There is little doubt among foreign officials in
Since
The Turkish government also has some grounds for claiming that the U.S. government had encouraged it to seek a deal with
Nonetheless, U.S. officials bridled at the fact that the Turkish government presented the deal to
In other words, Turkey is not to blame for the blowup over
Another reason to be more sanguine about
Turkey is at most only partly to blame for the setbacks suffered by its zero-problem foreign policy. Even when it has erred -- because of haste, poor communication, or fiery rhetoric -- the Turkish government has not forsaken the goals of many of its Western partners, including relieving suffering in
HUGH POPE is Turkey/Cyprus Project Director for the International Crisis Group and the author of
Dining With al-Qaeda: Three Decades Exploring the Many Worlds of the Middle East.
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