Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
Dominance and Decline in Perspective
The twenty-first century began with a very unequal distribution of power resources. With five percent of the world's population,
Power is the ability to attain the outcomes one wants, and the resources that produce it vary in different contexts.
First, one must beware of misleading metaphors of organic decline. Nations are not like humans, with predictable life spans.
Power today is distributed in a pattern that resembles a complex three-dimensional chess game. On the top chessboard, military power is largely unipolar, and
In interstate politics, the most important factor will be the continuing return of
It is currently fashionable to compare
The analogy with British decline is misleading. The
Despite such differences, Americans are prone to cycles of belief in their own decline. The Founding Fathers worried about comparisons to the Roman republic.
Pundits lament the inability of
For more than a decade, many have viewed
Yet
Moreover, linear projections can be misleading, and growth rates generally slow as economies reach higher levels of development.
Some have argued that
The rise of Chinese power in
Some argue that
Although
A graver concern would be if the country turned inward and seriously curtailed immigration. With its current levels of immigration,
Although too rapid a rate of immigration can cause social problems, over the long term, immigration strengthens U.S. power. Today,
Equally important are the benefits of immigration for
On the other hand, a failure in the performance of the U.S. economy would be a showstopper. Keeping in mind that macroeconomic forecasts (like weather forecasts) are notoriously unreliable, it appears that
In the 1980s, many observers believed that the U.S. economy had run out of steam and that
In terms of investment in research and development,
Other concerns about the future of the U.S. economy focus on the current account deficit (whose current level indicates that Americans are becoming more indebted to foreigners) and the rise in government debt. In the words of the historian
The Congressional Budget Office calculates that total government debt will reach 100 percent of GDP by 2023, and many economists begin to worry when debt levels in rich countries exceed 90 percent. But as The Economist pointed out last June, "America has two huge advantages over other countries that have allowed it to face its debt with relative equanimity: possessing both the world's reserve currency and its most liquid asset market, in Treasury bonds." And contrary to fears of a collapse of confidence in the dollar, during the financial crisis, the dollar rose and bond yields fell. A sudden crisis of confidence is less the problem than that a gradual increase in the cost of servicing the debt could affect the long-term health of the economy.
It is in this sense that the debt problem is important, and studies suggest that interest rates rise 0.03 percent for every one percent increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio over the long term. Higher interest rates mean lower private-sector investment and slower growth. These effects can be mitigated by good policies or exacerbated by bad ones. Increasing debt need not lead to
A well-educated labor force is another key to economic success in the information age. At first glance,
American education at its best -- many universities and the top slice of the secondary education system -- meets or sets the global standard. But American education at its worst -- too many primary and secondary schools, especially in less affluent districts -- lags badly behind. This means that the quality of the labor force will not keep up with the rising standards needed in an information-driven economy. There is no convincing evidence that students are performing worse than in the past, but
Despite these problems and uncertainties, it seems probable that with the right policies, the U.S. economy can continue to produce hard power for the country. But what about U.S. institutions? The journalist
Power conversion -- translating power resources into desired outcomes -- is a long-standing problem for
Another cause for concern is the decline of public confidence in government institutions. In 2010, a poll by the
Some aspects of the current mood probably represent discontent with the bickering and deadlock in the political process. Compared with the recent past, party politics has become more polarized, but nasty politics is nothing new -- as
This does not mean that there are no problems with declining confidence in government. If the public became unwilling to pay taxes or comply with laws, or if bright young people refused to go into public service, the government's capacity would be impaired, and people would become more dissatisfied with the government. Moreover, a climate of distrust can trigger extreme actions by deviant members of the population, such as the 1995 bombing of a federal office building in
As yet, however, these fears do not seem to have materialized. The
How serious are changes in social capital when it comes to the effectiveness of American institutions? The political scientist
In recent years, U.S. politics and political institutions have become more polarized than the actual distribution of public opinion would suggest. The situation has been exacerbated by the recent economic downturn. As The Economist noted, "America's political system was designed to make legislation at the federal level difficult, not easy. . . . So the basic system works; but that is no excuse for ignoring areas where it could be reformed." Some important reforms -- such as changing the gerrymandered safe seats in the
Any net assessment of American power in the coming decades will remain uncertain, but analysis is not helped by misleading metaphors of decline. Declinists should be chastened by remembering how wildly exaggerated U.S. estimates of Soviet power in the 1970s and of Japanese power in the 1980s were. Equally misguided were those prophets of unipolarity who argued a decade ago that
As for
Among the range of possible futures, the more likely are those in which
On the question of absolute, rather than relative, American decline,
It is time for a new narrative about the future of U.S. power. Describing power transition in the twenty-first century as a traditional case of hegemonic decline is inaccurate, and it can lead to dangerous policy implications if it encourages
At the same time, the country will certainly face a rise in the power resources of many others -- both states and nonstate actors. Because globalization will spread technological capabilities and information technology will allow more people to communicate, U.S. culture and the U.S. economy will become less globally dominant than they were at the start of this century. Yet it is unlikely that
The problem of American power in the twenty-first century, then, is not one of decline but what to do in light of the realization that even the largest country cannot achieve the outcomes it wants without the help of others. An increasing number of challenges will require
Power is not good or bad per se. It is like calories in a diet: more is not always better. If a country has too few power resources, it is less likely to obtain its preferred outcomes. But too much power (in terms of resources) has often proved to be a curse when it leads to overconfidence and inappropriate strategies. David slew Goliath because Goliath's superior power resources led him to pursue an inferior strategy, which in turn led to his defeat and death. A smart-power narrative for the twenty-first century is not about maximizing power or preserving hegemony. It is about finding ways to combine resources in successful strategies in the new context of power diffusion and "the rise of the rest."
As the largest power,
JOSEPH S. NYE, JR. is University Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University. Parts of this essay are drawn from his forthcoming book, The Future of Power
Available at Amazon.com:
The End of History and the Last Man
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?
Running Out of Water: The Looming Crisis and Solutions to Conserve Our Most Precious Resource
Bottled and Sold: The Story Behind Our Obsession with Bottled Water
Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization
At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes
Friendly Fire: Losing Friends and Making Enemies in the Anti-American Century
Dining With al-Qaeda: Three Decades Exploring the Many Worlds of the Middle East
- G20 Summit: Hitting Singles in Seoul
- The Consequences of Fiscal Irresponsibility
- GDP Now Matters More Than Force: Policy for the Age of Economic Power
- What Population Growth and Decline Means for the Global Economy
- Leading Through Civilian Power: Redefining Diplomacy and Development
- The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in Perspective
- Who Do You Call If You Want to Divide Europe?
- The Game Changer: Coping With China's Foreign Policy Revolution
- Why the Retirement Age Is Increasing
- Religion's Growing Influence in International Politics
- The Difficulty of Integrating Rising Powers
- Ban-ki Moon Has United Nations 'Drifting Into Irrelevance'
- Bachelet Faces Uphill Battle at U.N. Women
- Murderous Tactics Fueling Terrorist Propaganda
- Benjamin Netanyahu: A Hawk in the Ointment
- Diminished Capacity
- Moscow's Modernization Dilemma: Is Russia Charting a New Foreign Policy?
- NATO Summit Unlikely to Answer the Most Important Questions
- Franco-German Call for Change in the EU Meets with Much Opposition
- A Tenuous Deal in Iraq
- Conflict or Cooperation? Three Visions Revisited
- A New Global Player: Brazil's Far-Flung Agenda
- Pax Ottomana? The Mixed Success of Turkey's New Foreign Policy
- Rise of the Mezzanine Rulers
- Globalizing the Energy Revolution
- Democracy in Cyberspace
- The Digital Disruption
- Africa: Agriculture's Final Frontier
- A Reading List for the Twenty-first Century
- Latin American Leaders Could Have Learned From South Korea
- Region Ignoring Venezuela Coup Threats
- To Fight Corruption, Start Cutting Red Tape
- New Congress Won't Lead to 'Fortress America'
- The Shifting Balance of Power
- Checking China's Territorial Moves
- Why China Has a Point About Quantitative Easing
- China's Rate Hike: Winners and Losers
- Taiwan's Shadow
- Fools Rush in Where Europe Rushes Out
- Germany to Muhammad: Go Home
- Can NATO Nudge Russia Westward?
- French Demonstrations Tell a Familiar Tale
- Chavez a Pain for Spain
- Nestor Kirchner's Death May Mark End of an Era
- Petraeus Follows Iraq Formula in Afghanistan
- Heavy Handed Intervention Has Stalled Arab-Israeli Peace Process
- George Clooney Urges Obama and Media To Focus On Sudan
- Fighting Hunger in Des Moines
- Rise in Tourism to Miami May Signal Danger Ahead
- Peru May Be Next Latin American Success Story
- Nobel Winner Right About Risks of e-Books
- Nestor Kirchner's Death May Mark End of an Era
- Chavez a Pain for Spain
- Economic Woes Put Brittle Nations on Edge
- A Divided and Insular European Union
- Do not Expect China to Budge on the Yuan
- Why on Earth Does America Want a Stronger Chinese Currency?
- Nuclear Club Has Yet Another Applicant
- Nuclear Armament Still Our Central Issue
- Embattled Islam
- 'Europe Looks East' Hints at the Future
- Choosing Between the Evil of Two Lessers In Afghanistan
- Chavez Lost Ground but Will Fight Back
- Education Too Important to Be Left in Government Hands
- Latin America In Denial About the Quality of Its Schools
- Millennium Development Goals for Women Largely Unmet
- North Korean Succession Plans Are Shrouded in Mystery
- Rogue BFFs North Korea and Iran Make Quite a Pair
- American Role in Israeli-Palestinian Talks Is a Problem
- Iraq Reluctant to Pay Its Fair Share of Security Costs
- Iran's 'Shaky' Ahmadinejad
- United States Could Be Alone as Europe Turns Inward
- Hugo Chávez May Lose Even if He Wins
- Brazil Needs Dose of Constructive Paranoia
- Latin American Commodity Exporters Need to Diversify
- Stoned on Righteousness
- Our Man in Moscow
- Widening Divide in American-Chinese Commercial Interests
- The New Old World Order
- Global Human-Rights Cause Gets a Shot in the Arm
- Obama's Foreign Policy Performance
- New Russia Takes Root in Saint Petersburg and Moscow
- Dismantling Worst-Case Proliferation Scenarios
- A Numbers Game in the Middle East
- Middle East Peace Talks: Here We Go Again
- Obama and Clinton Revive Middle East Peace Talks
- Guess Who's Coming to the Table
- Iraq: Unanswered Policy Questions on U.S. Troops
- Iraq: Implications of a Pointless War
- Iraq: Book Review
- Iraq: No Drums and No Bugles: None Dare Call It Victory
- Pakistan's Leadership Sustains Flood Damage
- A French Leftist Ritual Takes on Sarkozy
- United States Losing Latin America Market Share
- The Power of Being Multilingual
- Chavez's Obsession With Past Turns Creepy and He's Not Alone
- Obama Could Help Stop Mexico's Bloodshed
- Interdependency Theory: China, India and the West
- The Dangerous Dog Days of Summer
- The Next 500 Years
- A New Plan For Nuclear Postures
- Strengthening the Political - Military Relationship
- Hydraulic Pressures: Into the Age of Water Scarcity?
- South Korea: Prosperity and Anxiety
- China Wealthy? That's Rich!
- Islamism Unveiled: From Berlin to Cairo and Back Again
- Beyond Moderates and Militants: Charting a New Course in the Middle East
- Middle East Peace Talks: Pointless Talks
- Why Israel Can't Rely on Deterrence Against Iran's Nuclear Program
- How to Handle Hamas
- Bringing Israel's Bomb Out of the Basement
- Iraq: Anxious Iraqis Look at Uncertain Future
- Iraq: U.S. Combat Troops' Departure Leaves Uncertainty in its Wake
- Iraq: A Promise Kept?
- An Unlikely Trio: Can Iran Turkey and the United States Become Allies?
- Staying Power: The U.S. Mission in Afghanistan Beyond 2011
- Long Road Ahead for Afghan Security Forces
- Afghanistan's Dirty Little Secret
- Russia's New Nobility
- Mexico Needs U.S. Help But Not Troops
- Mexico's Narco Problems Are Our Problems, and Vice Versa
- No 'I' in 'Team,' but Plenty of 'I' in India
- Afghanistan - There Can Be No Graceful Exit
- Afghanistan Timetable Remains a Factor of Uncertainty
- We Are Playing Fidel Castro's Game
- Has the Time Come to Legalize Drugs?
- Handling Tensions on the Korean Peninsula
- Richard C. Holbrooke: Pakistan Aid Inadequate
- Afghanistan Leaks Answer Few Questions
- Afghanistan & The Karzai Problem
- Afghanistan - Winds of Changing Policy
- Obama's Juggling Act in the Middle East
- Defusing Lebanon's Powder Keg
- Germany's Good Fortune Tips the Scales Against its Neighbors
- End Poverty: Export Capitalism
- Haitian Quake Hasn't Dislodged Status Quo
- Why We Go Back to Haiti
- Iraq - Mission Accomplished II
- The Fight Escalates Against Fake Drugs
- China's Coal Addiction
- Afghanistan: The Pentagon's Lost War
- Afghanistan: The Cost of Nation Building
- Afghanistan: Pentagon Papers Redux?
- Behind Iraq's Long Political Indecision
- Venezuela - Colombia Spat to Pass, Return
- Will China Rule the World?
- NATO's Future Involves More Global Partnerships
- Gloom Awaits U.S. Climate Diplomacy
- U.S. - U.K.: Difficult Duet in Afghanistan
- 'Pariah of the Pacific' Has Ham-handed Grip on Fiji
- Turkey Takes the Veil
- For Israel a Two-State Proposal Starts With Security
- Is It Too Late to Stop Iran
- The Middle East's Private Little War
- Reality and Reform for How the EU Keeps Its Peace
- Chancellor Angela Merkel's Sinking Support
- The Real Reason Why Afghanistan Is a Lost Cause
- The War Drones On
- When the 'Right War' Goes Wrong
- The Afghanistan Paradox
- Pakistan's Gambit in Afghanistan
- Obama Wasting Opportunities in Latin America
- Stopping Nuclear Proliferation Before It Starts
- Veiled Truths: The Rise of Political Islam in the West
- Steps to Stop Iran From Getting a Nuclear Bomb
- Iran: The Nuclear Containment Conundrum
- Iran: The Right Kind Of Containment
- China Is the Key to Handling Nuclear North Korea
- Coping With China's Financial Power
- What China's Currency Reform Means For Investors
- Russian-American Obstacles Overshadow Obama-Medvedev Meeting
- Russia's Courtship of Silicon Valley
- Ukrainian Blues: Viktor Yanukovych's Rise and Democracy's Fall
- Russia: Prisoners of the Caucasus
- The Afghan Challenge Is Far Tougher
- New Guard, Old Policy on Afghanistan
- Fear and Uncertainty in Afghanistan
- Afghanistan: Bribing the Enemy
- Afghanistan Poses Difficult Challenges
- Defining Success in Afghanistan
- Sad Stan, Famous Petraeus
- The Challenge of Reconciliation in Kenya
- The Tyranny of Unity in Zimbabwe
- Mexico: The New Cocaine Cowboys
- Under Santos Colombia Could Rise to the Next Level
- Autocrats' Latest Weapon: Indirect Censorship
- Latin America's Rich Should Be More Generous
- Castrocare in Crisis
(C) 2010 Foreign Affairs