World - Three Venezuelan Scenarios -- None of Them Good

Three Venezuelan Scenarios -- None of Them Good
Andres Oppenheimer

Now that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has publicly conceded that he has cancer -- after his regime had accused independent media of being "agents of imperialism" for speculating that his prolonged stay in Cuba was due to a serious illness -- here are three scenarios of what may happen in Venezuela. All of them point to turbulent times ahead.

Scenario 1:

Chávez beats the odds. The Venezuelan president, who has been hospitalized in Havana since June 10, returns to his country to continue his cancer treatment at home and recovers in time to run for the December 2012 elections.

Despite his sagging popularity, which according to a recent Keller and Associates poll has dropped to 41 percent, while 53 percent of Venezuelans reject him, Chávez draws public sympathy for his illness. It's hard for opposition leaders to criticize an ailing Chávez for his disastrous economic management.

Venezuela's economy -- despite benefiting from the biggest oil boom in history, it ended last year with one of the lowest growth rates and highest inflation levels in Latin America -- continues to deteriorate. Chávez's highly personalized ruling style results in even greater economic chaos with an ailing president who can only work part time.

But Chávez, making the most of his illness, campaigns as a humbler, more conciliatory candidate, and -- helped by a divided opposition -- draws enough support to win the next elections.

Scenario 2:

Chávez's big brother steps forward. Chávez has to undergo tough chemotherapy sessions that drain him physically and emotionally, preventing him from running for president. At the advice of Cuba's Castro brothers -- who would have the most to lose if Venezuela's opposition wins next year's elections and cuts Chávez's massive oil subsidies to the island -- Chávez nominates his older brother, Adán Chávez, as his government's presidential candidate.

Adán Chávez, a physicist who has been one of the president's political mentors, has been Venezuela's ambassador to Cuba, and is seen as the Chávez government's top liaison with the island's regime. Adán Chávez is currently governor of the Chávez family native Barinas state and is seen as the leader of the Chávez inner circle's radical leftist, pro-Cuban wing.

On June 27, amid growing rumors in Venezuela that the president had cancer, Adán Chávez was quoted by Venezuelan media as saying that it would be "unforgivable" for the government "to limit itself only to electoral ways, and not to pursue other methods of struggle, including armed struggle," to stay in power.

Scenario 3:

A military-supported "Bolivarian bourgeoisie" candidate. A fierce power struggle erupts within the president's inner circle, and Venezuela's military hierarchy persuades the president to appoint former Vice President Diosdado Cabello -- Chávez's all-purpose aide and bagman -- as the government's presidential candidate.

The top armed forces generals, many of whom have become multimillionaires under the Chávez regime but do not support a Cuban-styled communist model, fear Adán Chávez would replace the armed forces with Cuban-styled semi-independent territorial militias. They support Cabello, who is believed to have become fabulously rich himself in recent years, because he would lead a crony capitalist government without abandoning Chávez's radical leftist rhetoric.

My opinion: Chávez would obviously prefer the first scenario, but if his health doesn't allow him to run for reelection, he will go for the second one -- his elder brother.

It won't be a smooth ride. Between now and the 2012 elections, a partial power void at the top is likely to encourage greater corruption and mismanagement. A highly personalized government whose maximum leader can only work part time -- and spends long periods of time receiving medical treatment in Cuba -- can only result in uncertainty and greater economic chaos.

Amid the coming political turmoil, Venezuela's opposition will have its greatest opportunity ever to prove its democratic credentials, and show that it doesn't support any other outcome than peaceful elections next year.

Let's hope they don't squander this opportunity, because the coming political unrest will tempt all sides with extra-constitutional solutions.