iHaveNet.com
World - Environment: Rebuilding Sandcastles | Environment - The World Today
  • HOME
  • WORLD
    • Africa
    • Asia Pacific
    • Balkans
    • Caucasas
    • Central Asia
    • Eastern Europe
    • Europe
    • Indian Subcontinent
    • Latin America
    • Middle East
    • North Africa
    • Scandinavia
    • Southeast Asia
    • United Kingdom
    • United States
    • Argentina
    • Australia
    • Austria
    • Benelux
    • Brazil
    • Canada
    • China
    • France
    • Germany
    • Greece
    • Hungary
    • India
    • Indonesia
    • Ireland
    • Israel
    • Italy
    • Japan
    • Korea
    • Mexico
    • New Zealand
    • Pakistan
    • Philippines
    • Poland
    • Russia
    • South Africa
    • Spain
    • Taiwan
    • Turkey
    • United States
  • USA
    • ECONOMICS
    • EDUCATION
    • ENVIRONMENT
    • FOREIGN POLICY
    • POLITICS
    • OPINION
    • TRADE
    • Atlanta
    • Baltimore
    • Bay Area
    • Boston
    • Chicago
    • Cleveland
    • DC Area
    • Dallas
    • Denver
    • Detroit
    • Houston
    • Los Angeles
    • Miami
    • New York
    • Philadelphia
    • Phoenix
    • Pittsburgh
    • Portland
    • San Diego
    • Seattle
    • Silicon Valley
    • Saint Louis
    • Tampa
    • Twin Cities
  • BUSINESS
    • FEATURES
    • eBUSINESS
    • HUMAN RESOURCES
    • MANAGEMENT
    • MARKETING
    • ENTREPRENEUR
    • SMALL BUSINESS
    • STOCK MARKETS
    • Agriculture
    • Airline
    • Auto
    • Beverage
    • Biotech
    • Book
    • Broadcast
    • Cable
    • Chemical
    • Clothing
    • Construction
    • Defense
    • Durable
    • Engineering
    • Electronics
    • Firearms
    • Food
    • Gaming
    • Healthcare
    • Hospitality
    • Leisure
    • Logistics
    • Metals
    • Mining
    • Movie
    • Music
    • Newspaper
    • Nondurable
    • Oil & Gas
    • Packaging
    • Pharmaceutic
    • Plastics
    • Real Estate
    • Retail
    • Shipping
    • Sports
    • Steelmaking
    • Textiles
    • Tobacco
    • Transportation
    • Travel
    • Utilities
  • WEALTH
    • CAREERS
    • INVESTING
    • PERSONAL FINANCE
    • REAL ESTATE
    • MARKETS
    • BUSINESS
  • STOCKS
    • ECONOMY
    • EMERGING MARKETS
    • STOCKS
    • FED WATCH
    • TECH STOCKS
    • BIOTECHS
    • COMMODITIES
    • MUTUAL FUNDS / ETFs
    • MERGERS / ACQUISITIONS
    • IPOs
    • 3M (MMM)
    • AT&T (T)
    • AIG (AIG)
    • Alcoa (AA)
    • Altria (MO)
    • American Express (AXP)
    • Apple (AAPL)
    • Bank of America (BAC)
    • Boeing (BA)
    • Caterpillar (CAT)
    • Chevron (CVX)
    • Cisco (CSCO)
    • Citigroup (C)
    • Coca Cola (KO)
    • Dell (DELL)
    • DuPont (DD)
    • Eastman Kodak (EK)
    • ExxonMobil (XOM)
    • FedEx (FDX)
    • General Electric (GE)
    • General Motors (GM)
    • Google (GOOG)
    • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
    • Home Depot (HD)
    • Honeywell (HON)
    • IBM (IBM)
    • Intel (INTC)
    • Int'l Paper (IP)
    • JP Morgan Chase (JPM)
    • J & J (JNJ)
    • McDonalds (MCD)
    • Merck (MRK)
    • Microsoft (MSFT)
    • P & G (PG)
    • United Tech (UTX)
    • Wal-Mart (WMT)
    • Walt Disney (DIS)
  • TECH
    • ADVANCED
    • FEATURES
    • INTERNET
    • INTERNET FEATURES
    • CYBERCULTURE
    • eCOMMERCE
    • mp3
    • SECURITY
    • GAMES
    • HANDHELD
    • SOFTWARE
    • PERSONAL
    • WIRELESS
  • HEALTH
    • AGING
    • ALTERNATIVE
    • AILMENTS
    • DRUGS
    • FITNESS
    • GENETICS
    • CHILDREN'S
    • MEN'S
    • WOMEN'S
  • LIFESTYLE
    • AUTOS
    • HOBBIES
    • EDUCATION
    • FAMILY
    • FASHION
    • FOOD
    • HOME DECOR
    • RELATIONSHIPS
    • PARENTING
    • PETS
    • TRAVEL
    • WOMEN
  • ENTERTAINMENT
    • BOOKS
    • TELEVISION
    • MUSIC
    • THE ARTS
    • MOVIES
    • CULTURE
  • SPORTS
    • BASEBALL
    • BASKETBALL
    • COLLEGES
    • FOOTBALL
    • GOLF
    • HOCKEY
    • OLYMPICS
    • SOCCER
    • TENNIS
  • Subscribe to RSS Feeds EMAIL ALERT Subscriptions from iHaveNet.com RSS
    • RSS | Politics
    • RSS | Recipes
    • RSS | NFL Football
    • RSS | Movie Reviews
Environment: Rebuilding Sandcastles
Cleo Paskal

HOME > WORLD

 

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Risk assessments are supposed to lead to decisions that provide more security. However, after a series of tragic failures such as the meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant, the deadly blowout on BP's Deepwater Horizon rig, and the destruction caused to New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina, it is becoming increasingly clear that there are serious problems with our ability, or willingness, to accurately evaluate and mitigate risk. The question is, why? And what can be done about it?

An area that encapsulates many of the myriad facets of the challenge is the issue of what to do about United States (US) military installations put at risk by environmental change. The US Department of Defense's (DoD) 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report explained that: "In 2008, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) judged that more than thirty US military installations were already facing elevated levels of risk from rising sea levels. DoD's operational readiness hinges on continued access to land, air, and sea training and test space. Consequently, the Department must complete a comprehensive assessment of all installations to assess the potential impacts of climate change on its missions and adapt as required."

Sounds logical, and forward thinking, and the US military certainly has the expertise and funding to do a proper job of it. However, there are multiple systemic barriers standing in the way of accomplishing the essential goal of 'climate proofing' those critical installations.

The first issue is technical. Predicting the behaviour of the physical world is an increasingly complex challenge. The science is good, and getting better, but already it is often marginalised in calculations. Add in the new variables caused by environmental change and it gets even more complicated. Does one plan coastal infrastructure for a 15cm or 50m total sea level rise by 2050? It depends not only on how local hydrology affects sea level rise, but also if there is regional subsidence, seismic uplift, siltation, and other factors. Then there is the question of how that rise could affect storm surges and other forms of flooding. With environmental change, past indices are no longer reliable guideposts for future events.

The year 2050 may seem far in the future, but it is well within the lifetime of new infrastructure builds. And what happens after then? Additionally, there is a tendency to look at environmental factors in isolation; in this case, the NIC looked mostly just at sea level rise. This highly focused approach is endemic, and often the result of the limited scope of the orders given. For example, after 9/11, expert teams were sent around US nuclear installations to assess their vulnerability to terrorist threats. That would have been an ideal opportunity to also assess their vulnerability to environmental threats. An opportunity missed, not because the experts weren't qualified to do the assessment, but because it was remit of the operation.

The NIC's 2008 focus was sea level rise. However, considering water-related threats alone, coastal sites may be affected by sea level rise, but also subsidence, river flooding, unusually heavy rainfall, and dam bursts. Also, as seen with the recent Mississippi floods, affected areas may be hundreds of miles from the initial impact site, making the catchment area of a true risk assessment much larger than normally used. Of course, this approach also leaves out problems caused by other environmental variables, such as the sort of heat waves recently experienced in the US. Heat waves can affect infrastructure, but also energy usage and manpower, which in turn can have an impact on readiness.

However, even if we were to assume that all the environmental variables had been taken into account, and a true assessment of risk to readiness had been made - something completely within the technical scope of the US military - adaptation could prove even more difficult.

Say, for example, a base is deemed to be in a highly vulnerable location. There are concerns that in a hurricane, for example, its critical installations could be damaged. Additionally, due to the need to evacuate personnel and safeguard strategic assets, it is likely that rather than being of assistance to the local region, the crisis at the base would draw away key personnel and gear and put pressure on unaffected regional bases as evacuees are relocated there. And so a risk assessment finds that, from the point of view of US national security, it would be logical to move the base to a more secure location.

This is not completely hypothetical. In 1992, Florida's Homestead Air Force Base was virtually destroyed by Hurricane Andrew. In 2005, Mississippi's Keesler Air Force Base was hit by Katrina, flooding around 50 percent of the base, and triggering an evacuation operation of the same men and women one would have hoped would have been available to help a region in peril. The base's Hurricane Hunter airplanes had already been flown to safety.

What has since happened to those bases is instructive. Over 100 million dollars was poured into the reconstruction of Homestead, in the politically important state of Florida. In spite of the regional, political and economic importance of the base, in 1995 the Base Realignment and Closure Committee recommended closing the base. State and federal level politicians successfully fought for it to stay open. Keesler, for its part, suffered 950 million dollars in damages, and was quickly rebuilt in the same location.

Homestead and Keesler demonstrate why it will be extremely difficult for the US military to engage in real adaptation. Bases are key regional economic anchors, bringing in jobs, infrastructure and investment. No elected official or influential local lobby will let one move out of their district without an enormous fight. As seen above, even nearly destroyed bases in vulnerable locations are being rebuilt. It would be difficult to muster the political will necessary to move one preemptively, especially as one of the two main political parties is already officially skeptical of the impacts of a changing environment.

Another issue is potential government liability. If somehow the military managed to move a base due to concerns over flooding causing by environmental change factors, would that give neighbouring communities the right to ask for similar relocation funds?

Similarly, say a base moves, yet the federal government still provides flood insurance to the region through the National Flood Insurance Program. Then a flood hits and there is loss of life. Would the government be liable for the deaths because one branch, the military, has said this location is too dangerous to stay in, while another branch is subsidising people through federally backed insurance to stay there? Dismantling, or even limiting, the National Flood Insurance Program would be even more politically difficult than moving a base because it is a key generator of political funding through property taxes and developers.

Ultimately, when it comes to moving US bases out of harm's way, the very real risk to national security caused by the potential loss of critical installations is likely to be repeatedly outweighed by the seemingly more immediate political and economic risk of losing a key regional economic driver. Given the political and economic realities, for national security to win out, it might be necessary to pit the interests that would gain from the new location against those who would be losing from the decampment.

As this relatively limited case study shows, there are challenges in assessing the real physical risk to an installation in a time of environmental change. However, those challenges can be overcome. The real problems come when political and economic risk assessments take precedence over the physical realities.

Building a nuclear power plant in an earthquake and tsunami zone makes no sense from a physical reality perspective. In fact, the recent quake in Japan was even predicted in advance by a team of mathematical geophysicists working with Dr. Vladimir Keilis-Borok. However, that risk assessment was trumped by Japan's perceived domestic, economic and political imperatives. Similarly, draining swampland in a hurricane zone like New Orleans to put up housing might make sense to developers and to the city officials that approve the plans for reasons of their own, but from a physical reality perspective, it is nonsensical. As was allowing BP to self-insure the Deepwater Horizon when insurance companies - some of the best in the world at assessing real physical risk - would not insure it, as well as approving the building of houses on flood plains in Britain.

All throughout our systems, real risk is being distorted, discounted and disguised. Potential market-based safety mechanisms, like insurance, are being subverted by politically motivated initiatives like the bankrupt National Flood Insurance Program, and caps on liability, which essentially offset the risk from the individual region or sector onto the population as a whole.

The problem is, those costs are adding up, and the public purse is increasingly light. As the environment changes, it will seem like we are building, and rebuilding, and rerebuilding, sandcastles below the high tide mark. Already, some houses in Alabama have been hit six times by hurricanes and rebuilt each time in part with federal money. Given the system in place now, there is no incentive for them to move, as they know they will be at least partially bailed out.

Truly addressing the real challenges to our national security and economic stability will take political will, long term economic planning and sound science. It won't be easy, but it is a risk we have to take.

(Cleo Paskal is an Associate Fellow for the Energy, Environment and Resource Governance Programme at Chatham House, and the author of Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic, and Political Crises Will Redraw The World Map (Palgrave Macmillan 2010).)

 

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

 

  • Handling Big Contradictions
  • Tax Havens: Shady Deals
  • Environment: Worlds of Water
  • Environment: Rebuilding Sandcastles
  • Economic Cost in Yemen
  • Egypt and Palestine: Internecine Alliance
  • In New Egypt Old Conspiracies Live On
  • Show Stolen From Egyptian Superstar in Anti-Mubarak Drive
  • Russia Has Syrian Blood on Its Hands
  • Syrian Revolution Gets Islamic Seal of Approval
  • Muslim Brotherhood Challenges Jordan's King
  • A Dumb and Dumber War in Libya
  • Libya and the Problem with The Hague
  • Are Palestinians Getting Cold Feet on Independence?
  • Tent Camp Rises in Tel Aviv To Protest Home Costs
  • Open Air Market at Heart of Jerusalem's Downtown Revival
  • Rwanda: A New Rwanda?
  • Somalia's Pirates: Ransom Cash 'Easy Come Easy Go'
  • Al-Shabaab Offer Somalis Kinder and Gentler Face
  • Mogadishu Hospitals Running Out of Medicine
  • Kenya Feels the Strain as Somali Refugee Numbers Soar
  • Ethiopia: Floods Pose New Threat to Food Security
  • Understanding Nigeria's Boko Haram Radicals
  • Turkey: Constitutional Overhaul?
  • European Action Service: Europe Eats Its Young
  • Spain: Playing at Revolution
  • Spain May Change Tone on Latin America
  • Britain's Tabloid Scandal Sounds Familiar
  • Britain's Metropolitan Police Commissioner Quits Over News Corp Phone Hacking Scandal
  • News of the World Editor Brooks Arrested
  • Headed to Europe This Summer? It's Going to Be a Riot
  • Europe This Summer: Go, But Carefully
  • South Korea's School Tablets -- a Test for All
  • Bombs Before Bread in North Korea
  • 'Unprecedented' Drug Trafficking Heightens Risk To Youth
  • Never-Say-Die Attitude Propels Japan to Victory Over USA In Women's FIFA World Cup Finals
  • Three Venezuelan Scenarios -- None of Them Good
  • Mexican President Congratulates Troops for Huge Marijuana Discovery
  • On Humanitarianism: Is Helping Others Charity or Duty or Both?
  • Financial Rebalancing Act: Stop Worrying About Global Flow of Capital
  • Globalization and Unemployment
  • The Divided States of Europe
  • The Secrets of Germany's Economic Success
  • Russia's Evolving Leadership
  • Does Obama Have a Grand Strategy?
  • The Crisis in Clean Energy
  • Why Middle East Studies Missed the Arab Spring
  • Egypt's Military and Upcoming Elections
  • Taliban Hotel Attack: Low Death Toll, High Psychological Value
  • Bin Laden's Re-branding of al-Qaida
  • Perfidious Pakistan
  • Effects of the American Drone Program in Pakistan
  • NATO After Libya: The Atlantic Alliance in Austere Times
  • South Africa's Land Reform Crisis
  • Defending Democracy in Cote d'Ivoire
  • Greece and EU Attempt to Avoid Disastrous Default
  • Greece Passes Second Austerity Legislation
  • Greek Parliament Narrowly Approves Austerity Program
  • Greece Should Not Be About Austerity, It's About The Future Of Democracy
  • Greek Crisis: Brace for More Volatility in Financial Markets
  • Violence Mars Strikes in Greece
  • Papandreou Seeks Greek MPs Support For Austerity Plan
  • Ten Million at Risk as Drought Strikes African Horn
  • South Sudan Teeters Weeks Before Independence
  • Moroccan Voters Asked to Approve Reforms
  • Myanmar Open To Microcredit Expansion
  • Thousands Protest in Bangladesh Against Islamic Constitution
  • New Evidence Not Sufficient to Retry Filipino Senator's Son For Rape and Murder
  • Government Boosts Disaster Preparedness as Latest Storm Subsides
  • Health Personnel Spreading Hepatitis in Pakistan
  • Pakistan: More Polio Cases Despite Efforts to Contain It
  • Brotherhood Gets Out Muslim Message with Movies
  • Rejecting IMF Loan Egypt Risks Undermining Economy
  • Arabs Divided on Prospects for Change
  • Arab Spring: From Textbook to Tahrir Square
  • Palestinian Inmates Put Away Their Textbooks
  • Israel's Army Becoming God's Army
  • Lebanon's New Leaders Face Economic-Credibility Problem
  • Lebanon's Clerics Attack Domestic Violence Law
  • Is Syrian Unrest an Invitation for Al-Qaeda?
  • UK Public Workers Strike Over Pension Changes
  • Belarus Holds Lessons for Syria's Asssad
  • Libya and America's Commitment Problem
  • Afghanistan: How Much Easier It Is to Start a War Than to Finish One
  • Obama's Afghanistan Plan and the Realities of Withdrawal
  • Confusing Reports of a Battle in Matamoros
  • Implications of El Chango's Arrest
  • All Wheat Varieties Will Have To Be Replaced
  • In the Desert Kingdom: No Grassroots Politics
  • Fear and Trembling in Saudi Arabia
  • Minister's Resignation Highlights Jordan's Tense Relations
  • Muslim Brotherhood Walks Democratic Path With Caution
  • Mentoring Tomorrow's Middle East Youth Movement
  • Saab Unable To Pay Employee Wages
  • KLM To Power European Flights With Used Cooking Oil
  • Mindanao Aid Plan Underfunded Says United Nations
  • Philippine Airport Operator Looks for Body Scanners
  • NATO Chief Welcomes Obama Decision To Withdraw Troops
  • Afghanistan Bracing For Reduced Wheat Harvest
  • Bangladesh Ethnic Communities Protest Islamization Of Constitution
  • Former Mexican Attorney General Suspected of Helping Drug Cartels
  • Canada to Issue New $50 And $100 Plastic Bills In November
  • Conflict In Sudan's Southern Kordofan Region
  • Michael David: 'My Duty Was Cleaning Guns And Shining Boots'
  • Insecurity and Land Conflicts Threaten Peace In Sudan's Upper Nile State
  • Children Unprotected as Polio Spreads in Chad
  • Muslim Brotherhood Walks Democratic Path With Caution
  • The Afghan Money Pit
  • United States and Pakistan: Afghan Strategies
  • Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad Admits Opposition Has Legitimate Grievances
  • Syria: The Last Domino
  • Turkey in Position to Lead Region Out of Tumultuous Century
  • Lebanon's Opposition Feeling Threatened
  • New Mexican President, Same Cartel War?
  • Limited Options for United States in Yemen
  • Yemenis Look To Tribes As Force For Change
  • In Arab Spring Chill United Arab Emirates Puts Bloggers On Trial
  • Hamas Leader Urges Fatah To Abandon West
  • Somalia Power Struggle Could Intensify As Premier Quits
  • Ousted Tunisian Leader Denies Charges Before Trial Begins In Absentia
  • Tunisia Risks Controversy with Travel Ads
  • New Insight Into Male Sex Work and HIV Epidemic in Africa
  • Angola's 'Sans Papiers' Violently Deported In New Wave Of Expulsions
  • Severe Drought and High Food Prices Hit Pastoralists In Africa
  • The Hidden Cost Of Piracy In Somalia
  • Flood-hit Mindanao Battles Water Lilies
  • No Clear Route Out Of Servitude For Indentured Girls
  • IMF Urges EU Leaders to Act Now on Greece Bailout
  • European Finance Ministers Delay Second Greek Bailout To July
  • European Union Assures Greece Bailout Funds
  • Spaniards Protest Against Euro-Pact and Austerity Measures
  • Greece Is The World's Least Credit Worthy Nation
  • A World of Three Reserve Currencies -- Good or Bad?
  • Europe Is Warning Us
  • United States Has Trust Issues With China
  • The United States - Russia Missile Defense Impasse
  • Al Qaeda's New Video: A Message of Defeat
  • Why Sudan's Peace Is in Jeopardy
  • Egypt's Interim Rulers Learn the Democracy Game
  • Egyptians Back Keeping Clerics Out of Politics
  • House Pushes Obama on Libya
  • Ignoring the War Powers Act
  • Congress' Bipartisan Vice Is Cowardice
  • Outgoing Robert Gates Outlines Future US Presence in Asia
  • Robert Gates: Parting Shot on Afghan Policy
  • An Invitation to Leave Afghanistan
  • Obama Undermines Prospects for Middle East Peace
  • Forty-Four Years Later, Israeli Attack on USS Liberty Provokes Strong Response
  • Saudi Arabia Orders Men Out of Women's Clothing
  • Gulf Becomes Fault Line for Sunni - Shiite Tensions
  • Double Whammy for Bahraini Peace and Prosperity Drive
  • The Human Cost of the Yemen Conflict
  • Yemeni President Saleh Is Out But Yemen's Future Uncertain
  • Turkey's Dilemma: Economy or Constitution
  • Turkey: Elections and Strained U.S. Relations
  • A Bad Day That Never Changes
  • G8 Leaders Vow Billions in Aid to Egypt and Tunisia
  • What 'Arab Spring'?
  • Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood on the March -- Cautiously
  • International Law, Palestinian Statehood and Israel's Security
  • The Palestinian Move
  • Israel's Borders and National Security
  • Netanyahu's Message Is Self-Defeating
  • Justice for a General -- At Last
  • Protective Intelligence Lessons from an Ambush in Mexico
  • Corruption: Why Texas Is Not Mexico
  • Politics Behind Thai - Cambodian Conflict
  • Re-examining the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
  • The Bin Laden Operation: Tapping Human Intelligence
  • Inside Pakistan After bin Laden
  • The Kaspersky Kidnapping - Lessons Learned
  • A Political Vision for Israel
  • 3 Ongoing Conflicts You May Not Be Paying Attention To But Should
  • Visegrad: A New European Military Force
  • Turkey Setting Poor Example for Other Arab Nations
  • IMF's Crisis-Management Challenge
  • Dominique Strauss-Kahn Scandal an Embarrassment for France
  • Going Cold on Bin Laden

 

Available at Amazon.com:

Aftermath: Following the Bloodshed of America's Wars in the Muslim World

Displacement and Dispossession in the Modern Middle East (The Contemporary Middle East)

Enemies of Intelligence

The End of History and the Last Man

The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

 

Copyright 2011, The World Today

 

Recommend

Search Powered By Google

Google Search   

ADVERTISEMENT

Advertisement

Advertisement

ADVERTISEMENT

Job & Career Search

career & job search                    job title, keywords, company, location
  • HOME
  • WORLD
  • USA
  • BUSINESS
  • WEALTH
  • STOCKS
  • TECH
  • HEALTH
  • LIFESTYLE
  • ENTERTAINMENT
  • SPORTS

World - Environment: Rebuilding Sandcastles | Global Viewpoint

  • Services:
  • RSS Feeds
  • Shopping
  • Email Alerts
  • Site Map
  • Privacy