Khaled Elgindy
Understanding the New Statehood Strategy
Foreign Affairs, September/
Following the collapse of direct negotiations last fall, Abbas and his
The Palestinians' UN strategy has been buttressed by two ongoing developments, both of which have now become essential to its success. The first is Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's so-called state-building plan, which he launched in
Meanwhile, Abbas' UN strategy threatens to put the Palestinian leadership on a political and diplomatic collision course with
Yet the move does not merit a direct confrontation. In going to the UN, the Palestinians are seeking not to obtain statehood but to gain full UN membership as an existing state. Since last year, some 120 countries have recognized a "state of Palestine" drawn along the 1967 borders. Meanwhile, Abbas, other Palestinian leaders, and various international legal experts have argued that Palestine already is a state because it meets the four criteria for statehood prescribed by international law: it has a permanent population (Palestinians), a specific territory (the
This is not to say that it is an empty gesture, however, as the Palestinians are also eyeing some concrete benefits. They hope to pressure
PEACE PROCESSING
This strategy did not come about in a vacuum or overnight. Its roots lie in the belief, long held by ordinary Palestinians and more recently adopted by the Abbas leadership, that two decades of "peace processing" have failed to realize Palestinian national aspirations and have helped prolong and deepen
The decision by Abbas and
The idea of seeking a
But soon after that, two decisive events convinced Abbas and
The second clarifying moment for the Palestinian leadership occurred at the onset of the Arab Spring, following the fall of Egyptian President
Chief among the Palestinian people's demands was national reconciliation, which seemed to them a prerequisite to ending the Israeli occupation. Young Palestinians across the
GAMBIT OR GAMBLE?
Some characterize the Palestinians' UN bid as an attempt to achieve statehood unilaterally or to delegitimize
Having borne the brunt of repeated failures in the peace process, the PA's primary aim now is to regain some badly needed political leverage, mainly by forcing a shift in the cost-benefit calculations of
Abbas' UN strategy also dovetails neatly with Fayyad's state-building plan. Fayyad's proposal has given Abbas two strategic advantages. The first is to have established a crucial two-year deadline for statehood, a deadline that has since been officially endorsed by the Quartet (the
Since the Arab Spring, Abbas has also come to see national unity as the surest, and perhaps the only, way to shore up the PA's sagging legitimacy. Reconciliation would give him a means of both containing
Thus, far from negating the possibility of peace negotiations, the Palestinians' UN gambit is a strategy aimed at strengthening their negotiating posture vis-à-vis
'GIVE ME STATEHOOD, OR GIVE ME DEATH!'
The real internal struggle ahead for the Palestinian leadership will come not from
The Palestinian leadership's UN bid is partly a response to this threat, too. The chief Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, offered this blunt rationale for it: "We're doing this to preserve the two-state solution . . . so that our people won't say we failed." A UN vote will not end the occupation of
These motivations may explain why neither Abbas nor other
A GAME OF CHICKEN
The Palestinians are determined to press ahead with their membership application at the UN and to seek a
Whether the UN bid is a success, pursuing it has already borne fruit. For the first time in many years, it is the Palestinians, rather than the Americans or the Israelis, who have set the agenda. Obama probably would not have declared that the 1967 lines should define the borders of
Nevertheless, the plan entails some serious risks. It remains unclear how the Palestinians intend to proceed after the UN vote, particularly in the not unlikely event that it is defeated. Abbas and his close advisers have laid out a series of possible scenarios: an international trusteeship over the
Another substantial risk for the Palestinians is alienating
The bid also risks unduly raising the expectations of the Palestinian people. Should it fail or be defeated, the credibility of the PA and the PLO at home would be undercut. With negotiations with
This game of chicken presents some serious risks for
Although
Thus, rather than viewing the Palestinians' UN bid and the Fatah-Hamas unity deal as threats to a moribund peace process,
(AUTHOR BIO:
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