Salvatore Babones
Foreign Affairs, September/
By any measure,
For example, the Nobel Prize-winning economist
Like many other forecasts of
When it comes to gauging
WHEN THE GROWING GETS TOUGH
It may seem foolish in 2011 to even talk about calling a top to the Chinese market. Judging by the Fogel and Dadush-Stancil models, there seem to be no medium-term barriers to
But are things as simple as that? For one thing, economic models tend to downplay the fact that as countries grow, growth gets harder. When economies move up global value chains, graduating from the production of simple manufactured goods to a reliance on the creativity of their citizens to develop new industries, they rise less and less rapidly. It took
What is more, these two states have been vastly more successful than most others. No other medium-sized or large country with a diversified economy has even come close to
In other words,
ONE-TIME BENEFITS
Another reason that economic models forecasting
Moreover, there are today comparatively large numbers of workers born in the high-fertility 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s making their way through their careers. Because their parents' generation is dying relatively young and because they have few children, these workers are largely unencumbered by either caregiving or child-rearing duties. Of all the generations of Chinese throughout history, this one is uniquely positioned to pursue work and create wealth. Future generations of Chinese workers will be smaller and will be saddled with the care of ever more elderly relatives. Moreover, fertility rates can only rise going forward, meaning that these workers may have more children to care for as well.
Increasing urbanization is the other one-time bonus that boosted
STRUCTURAL STRICTURES
In addition,
The environmental barriers to
Still, the greatest barriers to
This difficulty will be exacerbated by major structural changes in the economy. Since 1960, life expectancy in
CAN-DO OR HAS-DONE?
Many commentators, most notably the political scientists
At its current growth rates,
All of which raises this question: If in 2020,
The relative position of
But it is more reasonable to see
But given
Pundits may relish the opportunity to speculate about a post-American future in which the world has to learn Mandarin, but the facts say not in this century. It is time to start treating
(AUTHOR BIO: Salvatore Babones is Senior Lecturer in Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney, in Australia.)
Twitter: @ihavenet
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