James Hoge
For Obama to prevail in the presidential election in November, he needs the eurozone crisis to be contained. If it isn't, a deep European recession could dash the slight upturn in the US economy, thus undermining his chances in what is shaping up to be a very close race.
The frustration for Obama is that there is little he can do to affect the outcome of
If Obama loses the election, his Republican successor will come into office after a divisive campaign, characterised by constant maligning of European approaches to societal challenges. "European socialism" is the pejorative label attached to Obama's management by
At this stage, hostilities with
Furthermore, in a much publicised "pivot", the Obama administration is shifting attention and resources to
On the way out is hegemonic initiative. In its place, is a new prominence given to multilateral responses. Favoured will be actions in concert with other major countries and coalitions of the willing. Where possible, responsibility for dealing with problems will be delegated to regional organisations. Some regional alliances are voluntary. Others are in effect imposed by dominant powers. Few regional arrangements are strong and therefore effective in conflict resolution. Where they do work, the focus is local. They are not prepared to take on global challenges of transnational crime, cyber vulnerability and climate change.
If US contributions to European efforts are modest in the short term, the same should not be true in the longer term. Renewal of the US economy is key to sustaining the West's influence and competitiveness. And spurring GDP growth must succeed fiscal reform as the priority goal in the future. A joint drive, highlighted by an EU-US free trade agreement, could do much to stimulate jobs and new sources of growth. Enhanced productivity should be targeted in four areas - energy, infrastructure, healthcare, and education. Needed are better practices and incentives and more research and development. Working together, the EU and the US can best meet the challenges and prospects of
But first, the traumas of the eurozone crisis must be dealt with, and 2012 is shaping up to be a tough year. It will be marked by major country elections, ratings downgrades and
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- Russia: Cracks in the Kremlin
- Russia's New Chechnya Problem
- Balkan Countries Dream of Oil Riches
- Europe: Drag on Global Growth
- How Europe's Crisis Could Hurt the Global Economy
- Spain: The Threat
- Russia: Putin Stymies Protesters With Subversion Strategies
- France: Socialism Bombs Out Again
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- What's New in France and Spain for 2012
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- Will the Euro Survive 2012?
- The Failure of the Euro
- Italian Prime Minister Calls For Unity to Save the Eurozone
- The New Old Europe
- Brussels Agreements Increase German Role in EU
- Council of Europe: The Soft Power Twin
- Greece: Default and Exit
- Greece's Unlawful Immigrants in Dangerous Hands
- Cyprus Gas Discovery Raises Political Stakes
- Politics Return to Russia
- Russians United against United Russia
- 2011 in Review: The World and the Balkans
- The Double Dilemma Facing Weaker National Economies
- German Chancellor Warns Financial Crisis Solution Will Take Years
- Bank of England Warns U.K. Banks that Eurozone Crisis Poses Biggest Threat
- Major Economies Headed for Slowdown
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- Troubled Spain Elects New Leadership
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- Europe's Crisis and the Radical Right
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- Europe's Crisis: Beyond Finance
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- Balkans: EU Will Help But Countries Must Reform
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