Bernd Debusmann
History does not repeat itself, according to Mark Twain, but it does rhyme. That observation comes to mind when one compares
The second, his son Bashar, is faithfully copying his father's methods. But now, unlike then, government brutality is documented by internet-savvy witnesses whose videos provide shocking evidence for all the world to see. That has prompted a rising chorus of predictions that Bashar will be held to account. But every day that sees Syrians dying while the world watches suggests there is a sizeable dose of wishful thinking in forecasts of the dictator's exit.
Before making the case for scepticism, a look at how history rhymes. On February, 2, 1982, an army raid on a hide-out of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood sparked fighting throughout the city of Hama. The government responded by surrounding Hama with tanks and artillery and blasting the densely-populated centre in a 27-day assault that killed between 10,000 and 40,000 people. The operation, led by
In 2012, Bashar is using the tactics of his father to rout dissidents in Homs and other cities. Then, as now, the government labelled its foes terrorists.
Coverage of the 1976-1982 shadow war, which included several attempts to assassinate
I became an object lesson on
The 1982 carnage went largely unnoticed by the world.
Since then, the body count has been rising relentlessly and reports of atrocities have stoked widespread condemnation. But outrage alone doesn't topple dictators, even less a dictator who feels that he has the upper hand militarily. Prospects for a speedy political solution look bleak even though
Now, it requires rose-tinted glasses to foresee an arrangement that would provide for Bashar to step down as a first move towards democratic transformation, one of the key points of a
So what may be next? Reconciliation is not on the table, not after four decades of repression, torture and violation of human rights. Assad and his loyalists in the Alawite-officered military and in the Alawite-dominated security apparatus - set up with the help of
"It would be unrealistic to expect the president and those around him to voluntarily step down," in the words of
Among
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