Bruce Gilley
The recent celebrations of the 20th anniversary of the end of the
Cold War in Europe have served as a reminder of the
many reasons for that momentous event - from the moral and economic
decay of the Soviet bloc to the visionary leadership of U.S. President
Ronald Reagan. One factor that has been overlooked is the role of
"Finlandization" is today a pejorative term, suggesting the hapless
incorporation of a small power into a great power's orbit. But in
retrospect,
Why does this matter? Because almost unnoticed by most of the world, a similar process is underway in another great struggle of East and West - the competition between the United States and China -- and it may help to avert what is already shaping up as the world's next great Cold War.
Since 2005, the island republic of Taiwan has
been moving toward a closer relationship with
China. As with
For both sides, this "Finlandization" strategy is an attempt to
reduce tensions and create some breathing space for
China to develop. Ultimately, the two sides have
different aims:
But is it a win for the United States? Losing a
key ally in
Embracing this will entail changes in U.S. policy towards
Taiwan. First and foremost is a reduction in U.S.
arms sales to Taiwan - a promise that
No less important, the United States should
support the strategic efforts of Taiwan to bring
about a transformation of China from the inside. In
place of arms sales should be joint training-exercises with Taiwanese
forces for missions such as counter-terrorism, anti-piracy, and sea
rescue. These efforts could be joined by
President Obama said during his trip to China in
November that he "welcomes the peaceful development of relations across
the
(C) 2009 Council On Foreign Relations, Publisher Of Foreign Affairs