The recent celebrations of the 20th anniversary of the end of the Cold War in Europe have served as a reminder of the many reasons for that momentous event - from the moral and economic decay of the Soviet bloc to the visionary leadership of U.S. President Ronald Reagan. One factor that has been overlooked is the role of Finland, which served as a critical mediator on human rights, resource disputes, and nuclear disarmament between the two sides.

"Finlandization" is today a pejorative term, suggesting the hapless incorporation of a small power into a great power's orbit. But in retrospect, Finland's strategic decision in 1948 to sign a treaty with Moscow, positioning it as a neutral power in the Cold War, preserved the country's autonomy and democracy. But more grandly, it helped to end the Cold War itself. Finlandization created exchanges between the Eastern and Western blocs that undermined the fears on which Soviet rule depended.

Why does this matter? Because almost unnoticed by most of the world, a similar process is underway in another great struggle of East and West - the competition between the United States and China -- and it may help to avert what is already shaping up as the world's next great Cold War.

Since 2005, the island republic of Taiwan has been moving toward a closer relationship with China. As with Finland, the shifts have been motivated by Taiwan's desire to preserve its autonomy and democracy by ameliorating Beijing's fears of U.S. influence in the region. And, as with Finland, the shift will come at some cost: under President Ma Ying-jeou, elected in 2008, Taiwan has reduced its anti-communist rhetoric and become more sensitive to Beijing's concerns about mainland political dissidents. In turn, Beijing has promised to allow the island a greater voice in international institutions and to consider signing a peace treaty formally ending the Chinese civil war that led to the 1949 division of Taiwan from China.

For both sides, this "Finlandization" strategy is an attempt to reduce tensions and create some breathing space for China to develop. Ultimately, the two sides have different aims: Taipei wants to see China democratize, while the ruling Chinese Communist Party wants to stay in power. But that divergence of long-term interests is overshadowed by a convergence of short-term goals. For now, the Finlandization of Taiwan is a win-win situation for both sides.

But is it a win for the United States? Losing a key ally in Asia to Beijing's strategic orbit would seem a disaster. Even from a strictly military standpoint the United States will remain capable of projecting force in Asia through bases and alliances with allies such as Japan and South Korea - just as NATO was able to effectively contain and deter Soviet aggression without the use of Finnish territory. But a narrow military perspective is the wrong one for thinking about the changes. The best hope for a rising China to become a positive force in a peaceful and just world order lies in efforts by reformers in China to democratize their political system. To encourage that, the United States needs to stop playing into the hands of ultra-nationalists in China by using Taiwan as a proxy military base. Washington should welcome Taiwan's attempts to moderate the security dilemma haunting the U.S.-Chinese relationship by making itself neutral. The Finlandization of Taiwan is good for U.S. security.

Embracing this will entail changes in U.S. policy towards Taiwan. First and foremost is a reduction in U.S. arms sales to Taiwan - a promise that Washington made to Beijing in 1982 and has conspicuously broken ever since. A November report by the hawkish congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission urges the administration to "continue to work with Taiwan to modernize its armed forces." That would undermine the current détente between the two sides. The President should demur.

No less important, the United States should support the strategic efforts of Taiwan to bring about a transformation of China from the inside. In place of arms sales should be joint training-exercises with Taiwanese forces for missions such as counter-terrorism, anti-piracy, and sea rescue. These efforts could be joined by China's People's Liberation Army, restarting the direct military cooperation that the United States and China pursued during the 1980s. As Chinese visitors to Taiwan increase, the de facto U.S. embassy in Taiwan should be repositioned to promote democracy in China. the United States should also support Taiwan's role as a gateway to China by signing a free trade agreement with the island to complement its proposed free trade agreement with China.

President Obama said during his trip to China in November that he "welcomes the peaceful development of relations across the Taiwan Strait and looks forward to efforts by both sides to increase dialogues and interactions in economic, political, and other fields, and develop more positive and stable cross-Strait relations." That was a good first step. He needs to back that up with actions on arms sales, democracy promotion, and free trade.

 

 

(C) 2009 Council On Foreign Relations, Publisher Of Foreign Affairs