The news that Brazil and Mexico have come out of the recession and are poised for solid growth in 2010 should be celebrated, and both countries' leaders should be given credit for their sound economic management.

But in the global context, the two Latin American giants' recovery will be modest.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva predicted during a visit to Great Britain last week that his country's economy will grow by ``at least'' 5 percent in 2010, and that sometime between 2016 and 2020, Brazil will become the world's fifth largest economy.

``We are tired of being the country of the future,'' Lula said. ``The 21st century is the Brazilian century.''

Almost simultaneously, Mexican President Felipe Calderón proclaimed Friday that Mexico's economy is resurrecting from its worst slump in recent times. After falling by nearly 7 percent this year, Mexico's economy will grow by about 3 percent in 2010 and reach annual growth rates of about 5 percent by 2012, he said.

Calderón noted that Mexico's economy grew by 2.7 percent in the third quarter this year. ``This is good news because it means the end of the recession,'' he said.

PROJECTED GROWTH

Most international financial institutions and independent economists agree that Brazil will grow by about 4.2 percent next year and Mexico by about 3 percent. Because the two countries represent the bulk of Latin America's economic output, they will drive up the region's overall economy by about 3 percent in 2010, they say.

But what do the new forecasts tell us about Brazil, Mexico and Latin America's long-term growth? I'm afraid that, while this is good news, it pales in comparison with the growth rates that we are likely to see in China, India and other Asian countries.

Consider some other data that was released in recent days:

-- A new study by the Goldman Sachs investment bank projects that China's economy will grow by 11.9 percent and India's by 7.8 percent in 2010, way beyond the growth rates of Brazil and Mexico.

More interestingly, the study by Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs' head of global economic research, projects that while Brazil's economy will grow by an average 4.5 percent a year between 2011 and 2020, China's economy will grow by 7.7 percent and India's economy will expand by 6.4 percent over the same period.

-- Latin America's share of world trade has remained almost stagnant for the past 30 years, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

While Latin America's participation in world trade has gone up from 4 percent of world trade in 1980 to 5 percent in 2008, Asia's share has soared from 6 percent in 1980 to 23 percent in 2008, according to the EIU figures.

-- When one looks at the number of patents registered by country of origin at the U.S. patents registry -- a key indicator for inventions that will flood world markets in coming years -- Brazil, Mexico and the rest of Latin America do terribly.

AN IDEA DEFICIT

A study by World Bank Latin America poverty reduction chief Marcelo Giugale shows that over the past five years, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office granted 563,000 patents to U.S. residents, 43,000 to Taiwan residents, 36,000 to South Korean residents, 9,800 to China and Hong Kong residents, 2,700 to Singapore residents and 2,200 to residents of Spain.

By comparison, it granted only 840 patents to residents of Brazil, 545 to people in Mexico and 291 to residents of Argentina.

To put it in perspective, Singapore, a country of 4.6 million people, is registering more inventions than the 500 million people in Latin America.

THE KEY TO GROWTH

My conclusion:

Brazil and Mexico should be applauded for carrying out sound economic policies that will allow them to emerge from the current global crisis faster than most other countries.

But unless they focus their energies on improving their education systems to become more competitive and increase their share of world trade, they will not break away from the mediocrity of their recent past. It's time for them to focus on the issues that will make them grow big time in the future.

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