C. Fred Bergsten
The dollar is under attack on two fronts. Private investors are driving it lower in the foreign exchange markets. Monetary authorities are questioning its role as the world's key currency. There is an obvious linkage between the two attacks: expectations of further falls in the dollar's value will accelerate the prospect that foreign central banks will switch to euros, Special Drawing Rights at the
The common cause of these attacks on the dollar is the prospect of U.S. budget deficits near or above
Perhaps most important, such massive budget deficits would almost certainly produce massive trade and current account deficits. When
Hence there is an international as well as domestic imperative for bringing the budget deficit under control. There are two plausible, equally undesirable, scenarios if
If the foreigners did finance U.S. profligacy for a while, as in the pre-crisis years, the conditions that brought on the current meltdown could easily be replicated. Huge capital inflows would keep the economy excessively liquid and hold down interest rates. Unless financial reform is extremely ambitious, this could once again encourage excessive lending and borrowing. Large external deficits, and thus large budget deficits, will be extremely costly to
Beginning of a New World Epoch
Paul A. Samuelson
President Barack Obama's 2008 electoral landslide victory averted a global financial meltdown. Had Republican Sen. John McCain won that election, present U.S. GDP would have been even lower than it is now, by more than 15 percent! And similar losses in global productivity would also have taken place.
October Jobs Report: A True Witches' Brew
In what will no doubt boost skepticism over the Obama administration's message of stimulus success, the unemployment rate in October rocketed to 10.2 percent, a figure much higher than economists had expected and just 0.6 percentage points away from the post-World War II high seen in 1982. While unemployment snapped back down swiftly in the early-1980s recession, it is widely expected that job creation will be slow in this recovery.
Economy: Cities Where Jobs Recovery Will Be Slowest
While the nation's job market is awful overall -- thousands of Americans are exhausting their unemployment benefits daily -- it's clear that the true jobs picture is as varied as the nation's topography. With the promise of a recovery on the horizon, new data show that the employment upturn will be regional as well
Forget Inflation, Deflation Is a Bigger Danger
Mortimer B. Zuckerman
Inflation typically results from 'too much money chasing too few goods.' Today, too much supply is chasing too little demand. That, coupled with consumers' need to save money to rebuild their finances, raises the risk of deflation, not inflation. And as workers compete for scarce jobs and companies underbid one another for sales, both wages and prices will remain under pressure.
Economy: Finding Opportunity in the Recession
Of all the industries devastated by the recession, the media has been one of the most notoriously affected. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 65,000 media jobs were cut in 2008 -- nearly 4 percent of the industry's total. Newspapers are perhaps the biggest loser, with more than 9 percent of jobs eliminated in 2008. However, ...
When it comes to foreclosure, the problem isn't just the 7.2 million jobs that have been lost during this great recession. There are millions of Americans who took a huge pay cut to keep their companies going. Unpaid furloughs and 10 to 25 percent pay cuts mean tens of millions of Americans are having a much harder time paying their bills -- and their mortgages are at risk as well.
Latin American Economy Will Do Well, but Not Great
Latin American Current Events, News & Affairs - Andres Oppenheimer
The news that Brazil and Mexico have come out of the recession and are poised for solid growth in 2010 should be celebrated, and both countries' leaders should be given credit for their sound economic management. But in the global economic context, the two Latin American giants' recovery will be modest.
(c) 2009 PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS.