Amatzia Baram
Nuclear Balancing Would Mean Stability
The past several months have witnessed a heated debate over the best way for
It should not. Most U.S., European, and Israeli commentators and policymakers warn that a nuclear-armed
Power Begs To Be Balanced
The crisis over Iran’s nuclear program could end in three different ways. First, diplomacy coupled with serious sanctions could convince
its weapons despite countless rounds
of sanctions and
The second possible outcome is that
Such a breakout capability might satisfy the domestic political needs of Iran’s rulers by assuring hard-liners that they can enjoy all the benefits of having a bomb (such as greater security) without the downsides (such as international isolation and condemnation). The problem is that a breakout capability might not work as intended.
a nuclear weapon.
The third possible outcome of the standoff is that
Israel’s regional nuclear monopoly, which has proved remarkably durable for the past four decades, has long fueled instability in the
Of course, it is easy to understand why
Unfounded Fears
One reason the danger of a nuclear
Yet that is precisely what many U.S. and Israeli officials and analysts have done. Portraying
Although it is impossible to be certain of Iranian intentions, it is far more likely that if
Nevertheless, even some observers and policymakers who accept that the Iranian regime is rational still worry that a nuclear weapon would embolden it, providing
As for the risk of a handoff to terrorists, no country could transfer nuclear weapons without running a high risk of being found out. U.S. surveillance capabilities would pose a serious obstacle, as would the United States’ impressive and growing ability to identify the source of fissile material. Moreover, countries can never entirely control or even predict the behavior of the terrorist groups they sponsor. Once a country such as
Another oft-touted worry is that if
Rest Assured
In 1991, the historical rivals
For that reason,
Most important, policymakers and citizens in the Arab world,
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