iHaveNet.com

China Mulling Clinton's Climate Change Offer | Kent Garber

China Mulling Clinton's Climate Change Offer
Kent Garber

Climate Change Carbon Footprint (c) M. Ryder
Climate Change: Global Carbon Footprint
(c) M. Ryder

"What do you think of Hillary Clinton'sannouncement?" a reporter yelled to He Yafei,China's vice foreign minister, as he attempted towalk off stage.

Looking away, Yafei said nothing.

Another Chinese official,asked the same question a few minutes later, said, "The press conferenceby the minister is over. I myself have another meeting to attend."

When China's answer does come it no doubt will go a long way toward determining the finaloutcome.

Secretary of State HillaryClinton arrived for the final two days of the Climate Change Conference, the goalwas to reach some sort of agreement on reducing greenhouse gasemissions, and she skillfully came with both an offer and a threat.

The United States, she said, is willing to helpraise $100 billion a year over the next decade to assistpoorer nations with adapting to climate change. But that pledge, shesaid, is tied to other things, particularly a commitment by all majoremitters, including China, to be "transparent"about how much they're emitting. "This agreement has interlockingpieces," she said, "all of which must go together."

Officialsfrom the United States haven't defined yet whatthey mean by transparency, but it's generally taken to mean thatcountries track their emissions and let an outside party verify theirrecords. Clinton this morning went so far as to call its absence from atreaty a "deal breaker."

But how this regime would work isn'tclear-cut. It could involve international inspectors or third-partyauditors, something that China says violates itssovereignty. At least publicly, India has said thesame.

The fight, experts on the ground say, is more than just a technicalone. Rather, it involves weighty issues, among them respect, economiccompetitiveness, and even U.S. politics.

"One question is how acountry measures its emissions,"says Peter Goldmark, climate directorfor the Environmental Defense Fund. "A touchier thing iswhat's the sanction if you're not being honest."

In 2008, forexample, Greece was penalized because it didn'tproperly follow emissions reporting rules for the EuropeanUnion's carbon market. The fine was that Greek companies weresuspended from trading carbon permits for six months.

In Copenhagen, no one has questionedChina's honesty outright. Generally,China has been applauded for pledging last month tovoluntarily curb the growth of its emissions. But there's anundercurrent of doubt, both here and in the UnitedStates.

To get a climate bill through the U.S.Senate, Democrats know they're going to have to win over senatorswho are worried that a limit on carbon pollution will hurt manufacturingwhile China continues to pollute more freely."They'll say, 'If we make a commitment, how can I assure my constituentsthat China will keep theirs?' " says Goldmark.

On top of that, any international pact would create a global marketfor buying and selling carbon permits--basically, pieces of paper sayingthat someone somewhere has reduced emissions by some amount--andbusinesses are worried that the market will fail if people have doubtsabout whether the permits mean anything.

That's why Sen.John Kerry, who was in Copenhagenyesterday, and other Democrats in recent days have been ramping up theirrhetoric about the need for a "transparency" clause in aCopenhagen agreement. With that in hand, theythink, they can convince reluctant senators thatChina is indeed doing its part, whereas a simplepledge isn't enough.

China, for its part, has rejected charges thatit does not intend to fulfill its pledge. "People are saying we areafraid of responsibility. We are afraid of being monitored," Yafei saidtoday. "No. It is a matter of principle."

In something of a signthat China is willing to talk, Yafei saidChina would release new details about how it isaddressing its emissions. But that seems to be quite far away from whatthe United States would like to see.

Perhaps the bigger concern, which Copenhagencannot answer, is whether China's plan reallyamounts to anything at all. According to one nongovernmental group'scalculation, China's emissions under its new planwill continue to grow about the same rate for the next decade as theydid for the past one.