By Benjamin Lee Eckstein
Super Bowl XLIV - Saints vs Colts
New Orleans Saints (+5) over Indianapolis Colts
Lets go shopping.
Here in Vegas, Indianapolis opened at most spots as a four or 4.5 point favorite. The line quickly moved to 5 then 5.5. There were a couple of stray 6's out there briefly, but once news of the Dwight Freeney injury hit, the line dropped back to 5, and now there are a bunch of 4.5's showing.
Also found two 5.5's at sportsbooks in town, so the coveted "Middle" is a distinct possibility. If the final score fell on 5, it would be one of the BIGGEST DISASTERS in Las Vegas sportsbook history. Millions of dollars down the drain on payoffs to the folks that had -4.5. on the Colts, the folks that had +5.5 on the Saints, and HUNDREDS of millions refunded for the push. The bookies out here are printing t-shirts that say,"If it's FIVE we get HIVES."
Now to the VERY attractive underdog.
New Orleans Saints: A scoring machine
Through the first thirteen games, the Saints averaged 35.8 points, then dropped off in the last three losses, but still led the NFL with 31.9 ppg. Obviously, they have ramped it up in the playoffs, laying 45 on Arizona and 31 on Minnesota. So, bottom line is, the Saints are GONNA score.
Drew Brees is not Peyton Manning, but he DID lead the NFL with a 109.8 passer rating, and 34 TD's. And while Brees might not be a Manning, he AIN'T a Mark Sanchez or a Joe Flacco.
The Horseshoes breezed through the first two rounds against teams with QB's that were in place to MANAGE the game, not really win the game. Then we come to Mr. Freeney. No one can really be sure of his status for Sunday, so we'll just say that he will not be at 100%. If Freeney can't go, we've seen his backup, Raheem Brock, and Brock is capable, but he's no Freeney. And no Freeney would make life considerably easier for Brees.
In Case You Were Wondering
The Colts and Saints both played on this field during the regular season. Indy beat the Dolphins, 27-23 in week two, while New Orleans ripped the Fish, 46-34 in week seven. So, obviously, both teams like the surface.
Both teams were 7-1 on the road, another wash. As for the spread records, slight edge to the Colts who come in at 10-6, while the Saints posted an 8-8 mark.
So, with two prolific QB's, and defenses that will give up points, we're expecting this game to look eerily familiar, like Super Bowl XIII when the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Dallas Cowboys 35-31, commonly known around Vegas as Black Sunday (Why Black Sunday? Well, the Steelers opened -3.5 and were bet up as high as -4.5. The game fell four, and the books were DESTROYED!).
This might not be a "Black Sunday" but the Saints WILL cover the spread in a 37-34 loss to Manning's Colts.
Prop me up
Now for some fun stuff. The prop wagers.
1) First out of the chute for me is the MVP: I'm gonna roll with Reggie Bush at 15-1.
2) Player to score the first TD: I got Pierre Garcon at 12-1.
3) Game goes to OT: I have yes at +$1200 (put up $100, get back $1200).
4) Reggie Bush total rushing & receiving yards: The over/under is 58.5 yards, and I'm goin' over.
5) Carrie Underwood sings the National Anthem: The over/under is 1:41, and I got the over.
6) First song the Who sings at halftime: "Won't Get Fooled Again" at +$200.
Have a SUPER Sunday.
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Super Bowl XLIV - Spreads, Bets, Picks & Selections - Colts vs Saints