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U.S. CITIES:
Why Failing to Complete Green Revolution Could Bring Next Famine
Carlisle Ford Runge
In the late eighteenth century, the English political economist Thomas Malthus took a look at two sets of numbers and had an unnerving vision: with food supplies increasing arithmetically while the number of people grew geometrically, the world population would eventually run out of food. "By that law of our nature which makes food necessary to the life of man," he wrote in 1798, "the effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal. This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from the difficulty of subsistence. This difficulty must fall some where and must necessarily be severely felt by a large portion of mankind."
He was right, at least at the time: in Malthus' day, food production
was essentially limited by the availability of land, whereas procreation
faced few restraints. Malthus did not foresee, however, that new
technologies in the late nineteenth century and throughout the twentieth
century would dramatically raise agricultural productivity. Farmers
worldwide learned to use new fertilizers, petrochemical-based herbicides
and insecticides, genetically improved plants (especially wheat, corn,
and rice), and massive diversions of water for irrigation, notably in
Throughout the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, crop yields continued to
rise, not only in rich countries but also in many parts of the
developing world. In
In
By some measures, the overall situation has continued to improve.
According to the
More recently, rising food prices have intensified the risks of
large-scale hunger. The reasons for these increases are complex, but one
of them is that demand for food is increasing as populations and incomes
grow, especially in
MALTHUS RETURNS
In
The crisis has been intensifying thanks to three ominous trends that
are only now coming into focus. First, the rate of increases in crop
yields appears to be slowing. Second, and this is related, agricultural
research expenditures have diminished since the 1980s, especially in
The next month, the
RESEARCH OR DESTROY
Since World War II, gains in agricultural productivity around the
world have been defined by greater output per acre of land. These gains
have primarily resulted from substantial increases in the use of
agrochemicals, fertilizers, large farm equipment, water, and (mainly in
The economists
In real
Exactly who was engaged in research also changed; public and private
researchers increasingly switched seats. Until the late 1970s, the
public sector -- especially the
With public investment lagging, multinational corporations --
The research now primarily pays off for large commercial farmers. Public research tends to cast its benefits more widely, including to many traditional farmers, whom it allows to make small but significant improvements, such as adding nutrients to the soil or replacing draft animals with mechanical tillage. Together, diminished investments in agricultural research and the shift of the research from the public sector to the private sector have redirected the benefits to large, already successful commercial farmers.
Although the Obama administration has called for renewed support for
scientific research, it has shortchanged agriculture in its proposed
budget for the fiscal year starting
Politicians and the public are scarcely aware of research efforts in
the life sciences; they take notice only when the media report a
breakthrough, usually in connection with human health. The results of
the research percolate slowly and extend over a very long time,
especially in the plant sciences. But what politician will pay attention
if investments in agricultural research take a generation to pay off?
The problem, as the early-twentieth-century economist
Alston, Pardey, and the economist
THE CORN OF PLENTY
The biofuel connection, in particular, remains as controversial today
as
Yet in
In an analysis of the pressure that this new demand will put on food
supplies and prices, one of us,
The late Norman Borlaug and his disciples were plant scientists, not economists.
By the late 1990s, Borlaug had brought
productivity-improving innovations to
Getting both the science and the economics right continues to matter
today. Substantial investments in research to increase crop yields are
needed, especially in
Norman Borlaug: The Man Who Changed Everything
Norman Borlaug (March 25, 1914 - September 12, 2009)
Norman Borlaug, a plainspoken Iowa farm boy who worked his way through the University of Minnesota during the Depression. His death at 95 came at the end of a life as rich as the bountiful fields he left across the world. To quote the citation that came with his Nobel Prize in 1970, "More than any other single person of this age, he has helped provide bread for a hungry world."
Norman Borlaug: Population Growth Requires Second Green Revolution
Norman Borlaug Nobel Laureate Interview
Norman Borlaug is known as the father of the Green Revolution. His work with high-yield, disease-resistant wheat varieties is credited with saving as many as a billion people from starvation worldwide. Borlaug was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970 in recognition of his contributions to world peace through increasing food supply. At age 95, a recent interview ...
Oh, Yes, The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference
Paul Greenberg
The other day a friend asked if I'd written about the Copenhagen conference on climate change, carbon control, environmental technology, the ecological future of Spaceship Earth, cabbages and kings, and the 101 other Very Important Things covered by that huge, long-awaited and now suddenly fizzled international gabfest. No, I hadn't written about it, until now. Maybe because it ended not with a bang but with a whimper heard 'round the world
Copenhagen Accord Offers Some Progress on Climate Change
Kent Garber
The Copenhagen Climate Change Accord is not what many wanted. It's not binding. Its language is vague. And it basically offers a bunch of 'shoulds' rather than 'musts.' It has few deadlines and few consequences, and falls short of being an actual treaty. However, many suggest it is the first in a long line of dominoes that must be knocked over.
World - Why Failing to Complete Green Revolution Could Bring Next Famine | Carlisle Ford Runge
(c) 2009 Carlisle Ford Runge - Foreign Affairs