Gordon Adams and Matthew Leatherman
Of all of this year's seismic shifts in the deficit and debt debate, putting defense budgets on the table is perhaps the most significant. The President's deficit commission, reinforced by the Bipartisan Policy Center's Rivlin-Domenici panel, added it to the conversation. And newly-ascendant Republicans, supported by many outside conservatives, have affirmed that fiscal discipline must include the defense budget.
Better disciplined budgeting will require the U.S. to acknowledge that we are more secure today than at any point since 1945. Al Qaeda poses a challenge that is far more sensational than it is existential, while both a strategic nuclear exchange and major land combat are unlikely. Moreover, U.S. dominance in virtually every domain of warfare is extraordinary. Indeed, the Pentagon spends more on just research today than any other country does on their entire armed force.
Even with level or declining future budgets -- now roughly
Recognizing the unique security we enjoy, fiscal responsibility is needed now more than ever. Secretary Gates is leading an effort to shift
Dismantling the al Qaeda network and proactively dealing with cybersecurity should be our top military priorities. Large-scale conventional combat, conventional deterrence, and sea lane patrol also are important, but our challenges in these areas are less severe and our capabilities already are more than adequate to address them. Most importantly, counterinsurgency and nation-building should decline significantly in priority after our forces depart
Setting such mission priorities would do what the February Quadrennial Defense Review failed to do: constrain the defense budget to strategy and priority missions and deliberately manage risk. It would also demand tough choices on personnel and investment, the areas that Secretary Gates has said he most wants to protect.
The military has grown by 92,000 ground forces over the past decade in order to conduct long counterinsurgency and nation-building campaigns, part of what
Administratively, another 100,000 positions can be eliminated from the half-million service-members that the Pentagon classifies as serving in overhead positions. The decision to limit the military's missions means that they will not need to be replaced by civilians or contractors. Each of these personnel cuts should generate a corresponding reduction in training and equipment costs, providing additional savings.
Mission prioritization and management discipline should also govern investment choices. The U.S. still is buying programs designed for Cold War-style major conventional conflict. We can lower that investment by continuing our current fighter jet programs rather than building a new F-35 line; by slowing the rate at which we buy new Virginia-class attack submarines; by divesting from missile defenses that are either unwanted or unworkable; and by canceling the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle designed for amphibious assaults last executed in the Korean War. Only conflict with
Choosing mission priorities, managing efficiently, and budgeting accordingly can contribute roughly
Foreign Affairs, January/February 2011
Dr. Gordon Adams is a Professor of International Relations at the School of International Service and Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center. Matthew Leatherman is Research Associate at the Stimson Center and a regular contributor to its blog, The Will and the Wallet.
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