By David E. Miller

Lebanon's five-month-old coalition drama came to an end, as prime minister-designate Najib Mikati finally unveiled his long-awaited cabinet. But, dominated by Hizbullah and its allies, the new government will face formidable opposition both within Lebanon and from the international community.

Led by Hizbullah, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and other Western countries, the March 8 coalition holds 18 of the 30 portfolios in the Mikati government, including the key security and justice ministries. It marks the first time in Lebanon's history that Hizbullah holds a cabinet majority.

Mikati, a billionaire businessman who has avoided the tumble of partisan politics in his brief political career, promised an inclusive government that represents all of Lebanon's many religious sects. But the many observers of the Lebanese scene believe Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah will be the one who decides the color of the government.

A lot will depend on whether the Shiite organization is prepared to put its past as a religiously inspired militant movement behind it and become a political party. Analysts are divided.

"Hizbullah is a doomsday millennial movement," Hilal Khashan, a political scientist at the American University of Beirut (AUB), told The Media Line. "It is inherently incapable of becoming moderate."

Hizbullah's stance has implications outside the borders of Lebanon, which has become a battleground in the fight between the U.S. and its Arab allies and an axis of Iran and Syria over who will be the dominant force in the Middle East. Hizbullah has racked up a victory by forcing out Lebanon's previous, pro-West government, but faces obstacles to amassing more power.

The movement expects many of its leaders will be facing indictments by the United Nations Special Tribunal on Lebanon investigating the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri. Meanwhile, the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and a key Hizbullah ally, is struggling to put down a domestic rebellion.

Khashan said that due to Lebanon's fragmented political nature, the new cabinet would likely be short-lived. "I don't believe this government will have a long life expectancy," Khashan told The Media Line. "It will largely function as a caretaker government."

Eugène Sensenig-Dabbous, a political scientist at Lebanon's Notre Dame University, said he was optimistic that Hizbullah could learn to go political if it were only forced to take control of more social portfolios in the new cabinet.

"Hizbullah suffers from the Peter Pan syndrome. It needs to grow up," Sensenig-Dabbous told The Media Line. "In past governments, Hizbullah ministers did a wonderful job with such issues as agriculture and energy. They should be encouraged by their coalition partners to take more such portfolios."

Nevertheless, he said, Hizbullah itself isn't interested in morphing into a purely political entity, preferring to focus on the war with Israel.

Syria and Iran were quick to congratulate Mikati. Al-Assad, internationally condemned for his violent suppression of a popular uprising, was the first leader to call President Michel Suleiman, followed by Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

Mikati, for his part, attempted to calm Western angst about the pro-Iranian orientation of the new government.

"The fact that Hezbollah and its allies have 18 seats in the 30-member cabinet doesn't mean that the country will join the radical camp in terms of its relations with the international community," he told the French news agency Agence France-Presse.

But he undermined his own effort when he sounded like his Hizbullah sponsors, urging his countrymen to "go to work immediately according to the principles and basis that we have affirmed our commitment to several times, namely ... defending Lebanon's sovereignty and its independence and liberating land that remains under the occupation of the Israeli enemy."

"The cabinet formation won't have much impact on Lebanon's relations with the international community," Khashan of AUB said. "Lebanon lacks sovereignty. The West realizes that this is the best government that could be created under the circumstances."

Still, the pronounced role of Hizbullah in the new government sows the seeds for eventual confrontation between the American administration and Congress over the legality of providing financial aid to Lebanon's army. Although the White House was circumspect in its first public statement, key members of Congress are asking how the U.S. can be sanctioning Hamas, the Palestinian movement also on the U.S. terror list, but not Hizbullah.

"We'll judge it by its actions," State Department spokesman Mark Toner said Monday. "What's important in our mind is that the new Lebanese government abides by the Lebanese constitution, that it renounces violence, including efforts to exact retribution against former government officials, and lives up to all its international obligations."

The issue is not simply one to be wrestled with by Western governments. Saad Hariri, who heads the pro-Western March 14 Alliance and was forced to step down as prime minister last January, is boycotting the new cabinet, terming it a "Hizbullah government."

Immediately after the cabinet announcement, Druze lawmaker Talal Arsalan, a partner of Hizbullah, resigned from the government, calling Mikati "a liar" for not giving the Druze representative a more senior ministerial position.

But the issue of Hizbullah's armament is perhaps the most disconcerting to its domestic opponents on two accounts. On Sunday, a lawmaker in Al-Hariri's Future Movement, Moein Al-Mureibi, told the London-based daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat that heavy artillery belonging to Hizbullah was discovered in northern Lebanon. The Lebanese army rushed to deny Al-Mureibi's accusations.

Hizbullah's arsenal places the nation in violation of UN Security Council resolution 1701, which forbids the existence of any group other than the Lebanese army bearing arms. Many also fear Hizbullah's arsenal will eventually be used to solidify its power internally.

"It's our right to wonder who the party is targeting with these canons and is it part of its plan to take over the country?" Al-Mureibi told the daily.

 

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