Stratfor Alert
A March 12 explosion at the earthquake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Okuma, Japan, appears to have caused a reactor meltdown.
The key piece of technology in a nuclear reactor is the control rods. Nuclear fuel generates neutrons; controlling the flow and production rate of these neutrons is what generates heat, and from the heat, electricity. Control rods absorb neutrons — the rods slide in and out of the fuel mass to regulate neutron emission, and with it, heat and electricity generation.
A meltdown occurs when the control rods fail to contain the neutron emission and the heat levels inside the reactor thus rise to a point that the fuel itself melts, generally temperatures in excess of 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit, causing uncontrolled radiation-generating reactions and making approaching the reactor incredibly hazardous. A meltdown does not necessarily mean a nuclear disaster. As long as the reactor core, which is specifically designed to contain high levels of heat, pressure and radiation, remains intact, the melted fuel can be dealt with. If the core breaches but the containment facility built around the core remains intact, the melted fuel can still be dealt with — typically entombed within specialized concrete — but the cost and difficulty of such containment increases exponentially.
Japan's Geography and Fukushima Nuclear Plant
Credit: Stratfor
However, the earthquake in Japan, in addition to damaging the ability of the control rods to regulate the fuel — and the reactor’s coolant system — appears to have damaged the containment facility, and the explosion almost certainly did. There have been reports of “white smoke,” perhaps burning concrete, coming from the scene of the explosion, indicating a containment breach and the almost certain escape of significant amounts of radiation.
At this point, events in Japan bear many similarities to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Reports indicate that up to 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) of the reactor fuel was exposed. The reactor fuel appears to have at least partially melted, and the subsequent explosion has shattered the walls and roof of the containment vessel — and likely the remaining useful parts of the control and coolant systems.
Japan's Population Density
Credit: Stratfor
And so now the question is simple: Did the floor of the containment vessel crack? If not, the situation can still be salvaged by somehow re-containing the nuclear core. But if the floor has cracked, it is highly likely that the melting fuel will burn through the floor of the containment system and enter the ground. This has never happened before but has always been the nightmare scenario for a nuclear power event — in this scenario, containment goes from being merely dangerous, time consuming and expensive to nearly impossible.
Radiation exposure for the average individual is 620 millirems per year, split about evenly between manmade and natural sources. The firefighters who served at the Chernobyl plant were exposed to between 80,000 and 1.6 million millirems. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission estimates that exposure to 375,000 to 500,000 millirems would be sufficient to cause death within three months for half of those exposed. A 30-kilometer-radius (19 miles) no-go zone remains at Chernobyl to this day. Japan’s troubled reactor site is about 300 kilometers from Tokyo.
The latest report from the damaged power plant indicated that exposure rates outside the plant were at about 620 millirems per hour, though it is not clear whether that report came before or after the reactor’s containment structure exploded.
Radiation Rising and Heading South in Japan
Red Alert: Japan
The nuclear reactor situation in Japan has deteriorated significantly. Two more explosions occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on March 15
Japanese Government Confirms Meltdown
Stratfor Alert
Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) said that the explosion at the Fukushima Daiichi No. 1 nuclear plant could only have been caused by a meltdown of the reactor core, Japanese daily Nikkei reported. This statement seemed somewhat at odds with Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano's comments
Officials Claim Positive Signs on Japanese Reactor
Stratfor Alert
New developments at Japan's earthquake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor No. 1 may suggest positive signs for authorities' efforts to contain the problem. But many dangers and risks remain.
- Rescue Efforts in Earthquake and Tsunami Ravaged Japan
- Japanese Government Confirms Meltdown
- Officials Claim Positive Signs on Japanese Reactor
- Nuclear Meltdown at Quake-Damaged Japanese Plant
- U.S. Geologists Explain Science Behind Japanese Earthquake
- The Slow Decline of North America
- Will Libya Again Become the Arsenal of Terrorism?
- How a Libyan No-fly Zone Could Backfire
- Superpower Obligations
- Caught in the Middle East Minefield
- You Cannot Kill an Idea
- Democracy Must Be the Future of the Middle East
- Arab Revolutions Need Not Be Americanized
- Bahrain and the Battle Between Iran and Saudi Arabia
- 'New Chapter' in the Middle East
- Embarrassing Times for Al Qaeda
- Western Intervention in Libya Should Not Fly
- Yemen: Divided Dissent
- Egypt: The Road Ahead
- Egypt: First Steps
- That Other Middle East Protest
- Arab World's Obsession With Israel Is Fading
- Time to Rethink Arab Arms Sales
- Cote d'Ivoire: Power Gridlock
- UK - Latin American Relations: Rearranging The Deckchairs
- Mexico: Cracking Down
- Ireland: A Work In Progress
- WikiLeaks: Unsteady Drip
- A G-Zero World: New Economic Club Will Produce Conflict Not Cooperation
- The Post-Washington Consensus
- Currency Wars: Then and Now
- Currencies Are Not the Problem
- The Advantages of an Assertive China
- China's Search for a Grand Strategy
- Will China's Rise Lead to War?
- Getting China to Sanction Iran
- How al Qaeda Works
- Fighting the Laws of War
- Cambodia: A Temple and a Tempest
- A Welcome Foreign Policy Caution
- A Politically 'Comatose' Middle East Awakens
- New Regimes in Arab World Could Highlight American Hypocrisy
- Egypt in Danger of Becoming America's Greatest Middle East Enemy
- Middle East Unrest Spreads to Libya
- The Tunisia Effect
- The Arab Revolt
- Far East and Middle East: A Study in Contrasts?
- Arms Sales for India
- The Indian - Pakistani Divide
- Iraq: From Surge to Sovereignty
- Doing Multiculturalism Right
- Germany's Immigration Dilemma
- World's Top Ten Circular Buildings and Structures
- Freedom Fever
- Revolution and the Muslim World
- Discovering Fire
- A Truth More Powerful Than an Army
- Egypt's Dim Future
- Demographics of Arab Protests
- In New Arab World United States Cannot Straddle Fence Much Longer
- The Wealth Gap Around the World
- Revisionist History of Bush Democracy Agenda Doesn't Hold Up
- What the Egyptian Uprising Means for Investors
- The Real 'Realism' on Israel
- Shaky Restart to Inter-Korean Talks
- The Threat of Civil Unrest in Pakistan and the Davis Case
- Davos Man and the Real World
- From Davos to D.C., A Crossroads Moment for the World
- The 10 Countries With the Most Debt
- Egypt: The Distance Between Enthusiasm and Reality
- Egypt Revolt Part of a Long History of Uprisings
- Hope Amid the Chaos in Cairo
- Egypt's Uphill Economic Struggles
- The United States - Egypt Breakup: Washington's Limited Options in Cairo
- Egypt a 'Textbook' Foreign Policy Dilemma
- Egypt's Widening Discontent
- Egypt Aflame
- Obama Meets Foreign Policy Test in Egypt
- Tunisia: Moment in the Sun
- Hunger Fuels Discontent in Middle East
- No Justice, No Peace
- American-Israeli Policy To Be Tested By Arab Uprisings
- Israel, Turkey and Iran: Neighbourly Strain
- Israel: Testing Times
- Syria: Washington's New Direction
- Russia: A 21st Century Alliance?
- Russia: Podium Pressure and the 2014 Winter Olympics
- Montenegro: The Survivor Exits
- Kosovo: A Way To Go
- Belarus: Back in the Freezer
- Korea: A Glimmer of Hope
- Humanitarian Workers: Aid for the Aid Givers
- U.S. Officials Talk Tough With China
- Obama Presses Hu Jintao to Let U.S. Banks Into China
- Obama Served Peace Prize too Early
- America's China Syndrome
- Tunisia's Lessons for Repressive Regimes
- Tunisia: A Popular Uprising But Then What?
- Unrest in Tunisia and Ivory Coast Send Tremors Through Africa
- Afganistan: Nurturing a Narco-State
- Top Global Risks of 2011
- China and United States Need Overarching Concept for Interaction
- China's Growing Military Might Poses Many Policy Questions
- Britain and China: Then and Now
- How Repressive Regimes Use the Internet to Keep Power
- Islam's Hijackers and Hijackees
- WikiLeaks: Diplomacy as Usual
- Africom: Soft Power Warriors
- Nigerian Elections: Levelling the Playing Fields
- Nigerian Elections: Changing of the Old Guard?
- Sudan: Beyond Southern Sudan
- Afghanistan: Deadly Addiction
- The Euro: Until Death Do Us Part
- Russia: Rewriting History
- Gulf States Should Take a DIY Approach With Iran
- Back to 'Normal' in the Middle East
- America: Uneasy Engagement
- America: Flying Into Turbulence
- Obama and Human Rights: Continuity and Change
- Western Economy on Suicide Watch?
- South America Enters Middle East Quagmire
- The Political Power of Social Media
- West Is Best? Why Civilizations Rise and Fall
- Exploring the Influence of Culture on Military Doctrine
- The Good News About Gas
- Less Than Zero: Bursting the New Disarmament Bubble
- Why Moscow Says No
- A Third Way to Palestine - Fayyadism and Its Discontents
- The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran
- Plan B in Afghanistan
- The Fallout of the Global Gun Trade
- Finish the Job: How the War in Afghanistan Can Be Won
- Why the Rich Are Getting Richer
- A Leaner and Meaner Defense
- Defense Is On The Table
- The American 21st Century
- Culture Matters: Real Obstacles to Latin American Development
- A Wave of Christianophobia
- Lessons From the Iraq War for Afghanistan
- Foreign Policy Review Suggests a Losing Effort
- Iran: Glow, Little Glow Worm, Glow
- Believe in Violence and Be Saved
- Colonialism Still at Heart of Africa's Growing Pains
- The Empty Chair
- North Korea: The World's Problem Child
- Save the North Koreans!
- For Middle East Peace, Israel Must Prepare for Nuclear War
- Iran Nuclear Talks: A Widening Chasm
- A Sordid Dance in Afghanistan
- Holding the Course in Afghanistan
- As New START Debate Rages, Quiet Nuclear Progress With Russia
- Argentina Needs to Face Education Debacle
- A World Full of Fault Lines
- Facebook, Twitter and the Search for Peace in the Middle East
- China's Leadership: Fractures Finally Showing
- China: Uncertain Leap Forward
- Britain and China: Being Friendly
- Belarus: Land Between
- Sudan's Referendum: Prickly Interdependence
- Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Limits of Being Helpful
- Iraq Refugees: Seeking Safety
- Troublesome Partner in Afghanistan
- NATO Presses on With Futile Effort in Afghanistan
- Counterfeit Medicines: Health and Harm
- Food Supply: Lunchtime Blues
- Cybersecurity and Society: bigsociety.com
- America's Credibility Deficit
- Global Warming Conference Faces Meltdown
- WikiLeaks Disclosures Not Earth Shattering
- WikiLeaks May End Up Helping America
- WikiLeaks and The Invisible Government
- Wikileaks: More Than Just an Embarrassment
- Wikileaks: Undiplomatic Diplomacy
- A WikiLeaks Wake-up Call
- Will WikiLeaks Hobble U.S. Diplomacy?
- How WikiLeaks Can Make Us Less Free
- Wikileaks: Small Revelations That May Cause a Big Idea to Take Hold
- G20 Summit: Hitting Singles in Seoul
- The Consequences of Fiscal Irresponsibility
- GDP Now Matters More Than Force: Policy for the Age of Economic Power
- What Population Growth and Decline Means for the Global Economy
- Leading Through Civilian Power: Redefining Diplomacy and Development
- The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in Perspective
- Who Do You Call If You Want to Divide Europe?
- The Game Changer: Coping With China's Foreign Policy Revolution
- Why the Retirement Age Is Increasing
- Religion's Growing Influence in International Politics
- The Difficulty of Integrating Rising Powers
- Ban-ki Moon Has United Nations 'Drifting Into Irrelevance'
- Bachelet Faces Uphill Battle at U.N. Women
- Murderous Tactics Fueling Terrorist Propaganda
- Benjamin Netanyahu: A Hawk in the Ointment
- Diminished Capacity
- Moscow's Modernization Dilemma: Is Russia Charting a New Foreign Policy?
- NATO Summit Unlikely to Answer the Most Important Questions
- Franco-German Call for Change in the EU Meets with Much Opposition
- A Tenuous Deal in Iraq
- Conflict or Cooperation? Three Visions Revisited
- A New Global Player: Brazil's Far-Flung Agenda
- Pax Ottomana? The Mixed Success of Turkey's New Foreign Policy
- Rise of the Mezzanine Rulers
- Globalizing the Energy Revolution
- Democracy in Cyberspace
- The Digital Disruption
- Africa: Agriculture's Final Frontier
- A Reading List for the Twenty-first Century
- Latin American Leaders Could Have Learned From South Korea
- Region Ignoring Venezuela Coup Threats
- To Fight Corruption, Start Cutting Red Tape
- New Congress Won't Lead to 'Fortress America'
- The Shifting Balance of Power
- Checking China's Territorial Moves
- Why China Has a Point About Quantitative Easing
- China's Rate Hike: Winners and Losers
- Taiwan's Shadow
- Fools Rush in Where Europe Rushes Out
- Germany to Muhammad: Go Home
- Can NATO Nudge Russia Westward?
- French Demonstrations Tell a Familiar Tale
- Chavez a Pain for Spain
- Nestor Kirchner's Death May Mark End of an Era
- Petraeus Follows Iraq Formula in Afghanistan
- Heavy Handed Intervention Has Stalled Arab-Israeli Peace Process
- George Clooney Urges Obama and Media To Focus On Sudan
- Fighting Hunger in Des Moines
- Rise in Tourism to Miami May Signal Danger Ahead
- Peru May Be Next Latin American Success Story
- Nobel Winner Right About Risks of e-Books
- Nestor Kirchner's Death May Mark End of an Era
- Chavez a Pain for Spain
- Economic Woes Put Brittle Nations on Edge
Available at Amazon.com:
Aftermath: Following the Bloodshed of America's Wars in the Muslim World
Displacement and Dispossession in the Modern Middle East (The Contemporary Middle East)
The End of History and the Last Man
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?
Running Out of Water: The Looming Crisis and Solutions to Conserve Our Most Precious Resource
Bottled and Sold: The Story Behind Our Obsession with Bottled Water
Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization
At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes
Friendly Fire: Losing Friends and Making Enemies in the Anti-American Century
Dining With al-Qaeda: Three Decades Exploring the Many Worlds of the Middle East
Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy
Republished with permission of STRATFOR www.stratfor.com