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European Crisis: Precise Solutions in an Imprecise Reality
George Friedman

HOME > WORLD

 

 

An important disconnect over the discussion of the future of the European Union exists, one that divides into three parts.

First, there is the question of whether the various plans put forward in Europe plausibly could result in success given the premises they are based on. Second, there is the question of whether the premises are realistic. And third, assuming they are realistic and the plans are in fact implemented, there is the question of whether they can save the European Union as it currently exists.

The plans all are financial solutions to a particular set of financial problems. But regardless of whether they are realistic in addressing the financial problem, the question of whether the financial issue really addresses the fundamental dilemma of Europe -- which is political and geopolitical -- remains.

STRATFOR has examined the plans for dealing with the financial crisis in Europe, and we find them technically plausible, even if they involve navigating something of a minefield. The eurozone's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, would be expanded in scope and reach until it can handle the bailout of a major state, the default of a minor state and a banking crisis of unprecedented proportions. Given assumptions of the magnitude of the problem and assuming general compliance with the plans, there is a chance that the solution we see the Germans moving toward could work.

The extraordinary complexity of the plans being floated in Europe is important to note. It is extremely difficult for us to understand the specifics, and we suspect the politicians proposing it are also less than clear on them. We have found that the more uncertain the solution, the more complex it is. And the complexity of the European situation is less driven by the complexity of the economics than by the complexity of the politics. The problem is relatively easy: Banks and countries under massive financial pressure almost certainly will default without extensive aid. By giving them money, default can be avoided. But the political complexity of giving them money and the opposition by many Europeans on all sides to this solution contributes to the complexity. The greater the complexity, the more interests can be satisfied and -- ultimately -- the less understanding there is about what has been promised. Some subjects require complexity, and this is one of them. The degree of complexity in this case tells another tale.

The Foundation of the Crisis

Part of that tale is about two dubious assumptions at the foundation of the crisis. The first is the assumption that interested parties are genuinely aware of the size of the financial problems, and to the extent they are aware of it, that they are being honest about it. Ever since 2008, the singular truth of the financial community globally has been that they were either unaware of the extent of the financial problems on the whole or unaware of the realities of their own institutions. An alternative explanation is, of course, willful ignorance. This translates as the leaders being fully aware of the magnitude of the problem but understating it to buy time or to position themselves personally for better outcomes. It could also simply be a case of their being engaged in helpless hopefulness -- that is, they knew there was nothing they could do but remained hopeful that someone else would find a solution. In sum, it combined incompetence, willful deception and willful delusion.

Consider the charge that the Greeks falsified financial data.

While undoubtedly true, it misses the point. The job of bankers is to analyze data from loan applicants and to uncover falsehoods. The charge against the Greeks can thus be extended to bankers. How could they not have discovered the Greek deception?

There are two answers. The first is that they didn't want to. The global system of compensation among financial institutions -- from home mortgages to the purchase of government bonds -- separates the transaction from the outcome. In other words, in many cases bankers are not held responsible for the outcome of the loan and are paid for the acquisition and resale of the loan alone. They are therefore not particularly aggressive in assessing the quality of a given loan. Frequently, they work with borrowers to make their debt look more attractive.

During the U.S. subprime crisis, in the mortgage crisis in Central Europe and in the sovereign debt and banking crisis in Europe, the system placed a premium on transactions, immunizing bankers from the repayment of loans. The validity of the numbers systematically were skewed toward the most favorable case.

More important, such numbers -- not only of the status of loans but also about the economic and social status of the debtors -- inherently are uncertain. This is crucial because part of the proposed European solution is the imposition of austerity on debtor nation states. The specifics of that austerity and its effect on the ability to repay after austerity heavily depend on the validity of available economic and social statistics.

There is an interesting belief, at least in the advanced industrial countries, that government-issued statistics reflect reality. The idea is that the people who issued these statistics are civil servants, impervious to political pressure and therefore likely providing accurate data. A host of reasons exists for looking at national statistics with a jaundiced eye beyond the risk of politicians pressuring civil servants.

For one, collecting statistics on a society is a daunting task. Even small countries have millions of people. The national statistical database is based on the assumption that all of the transactions and productions of these millions can be measured accurately, or at least measured within some knowable range of error. This is an overwhelming undertaking.

The solution is not the actual counting of transactions -- an impossible task -- but the creation of statistical models that make assumptions based on various methodologies. There are competing models that provide different outcomes based on sampling procedures or mathematical models. Even without pressure from politicians, civil servants and their academic mentors have personal commitments to certain models.

The center of gravity of our global statistical system, particularly those of advanced industrial countries, is that the selection of statistical models is frequently subject to complex disputes of experts who vehemently disagree with one another. This is also a point where political pressure can be applied. Given the disagreements, the decision on which methodology to use -- from sampling to reporting -- is subject to political decisions because the experts are divided and as contentious as all human beings are on any subject they care about.

And this is the point at which outside decisions are made, based on outcome, not on the subtleties of mathematical modeling. There is a connection between the numbers and reality, but the mathematics of a bailout rests on a statistical base of sand. It is always assumed that this is the case in the developing world. This creates a certain advantage, in that it is understood that the statistics are unreliable. By contrast, the advanced industrial countries have the hubris to believe that complex mathematics has solved the problem of knowing what hundreds of millions of people in billions of transactions actually have done.

A Culture of Opaque States

Compounding this challenge, the European Union has incorporated societies on its periphery that never have accepted the principle that states must be transparent, a problem exacerbated by EU regulations. Southern and Central Europeans always have been less impressed by the state than Germans, for example. This is not simply about paying taxes but about a broader distrust of government, something deeply embedded in history. Meanwhile, regulations from Brussels, whose tax and employment laws make entrepreneurship and small business ownership extraordinarily difficult, have forced a good deal of the economy “off the books,” aka underground.

While not an EU state, Moldova -- said to be the poorest country in Europe -- is an instructive example. When I visited it a year ago, the city (and villages outside the city) was filled with banks (from Societe Generale on down) and BMWs. There was clear poverty, but there also was a wealth and vibrancy not captured in intergovernmental statistics. The numbers spoke of grinding poverty; the streets spoke of a more complex reality.

What exactly is the state of the Greek, Spanish or Italian economy? That is hard to say. Official statistics that count the legal economy suffer from methodological uncertainty. Moreover, a good deal of the economy is not included in the numbers. One assessment says that 10 percent of all employees are off the books. Another says 40 percent of Greeks define themselves as self-employed. A third estimates that 40 percent of the total Greek economy is in the grey sector. When evaluating what tries to remain hidden, you're reduced to guesswork. No one really knows, any more than anyone really knows how many illegal immigrants are participating in the U.S. economy. The difference, however, is that this knowledge is of profound importance to the entire EU bailout.

The level of indebtedness and the ownership of the debt of European banks and countries are as murky as who held asset-backed securities in the United States. Yet there is a precise plan designed to solve a problem that can't be quantified or allocated. The complexity and precision of the plan fails to recognize the uncertainty because the governments and banks are loath to admit that they just aren't certain. The banks have grown so big and their relationships so complex that the uncertainty principle parallels the state's. The United States -- where the same governing authority handles all fiscal, monetary and social policies -- powered through such uncertainties in the 2008 financial crisis by sheer mass and speed. Europe, with dozens of (often competing) authorities, so far has found it impossible to exercise that option.

The countries that face default and austerity have no better understanding of their own internal reality than the financial institutions understand their own internal reality. Greek numbers on the consequences of austerity for government workers do not take into account that many of those workers show up to work only occasionally while working another job that is not taxed or known to the state statistical services. Thus, one has a complete split between the state and banking systems' ability to honor debt obligations, the insistence on austerity and the social reality of the country.

Germany has always been different.

Ever since the early 19th century German philosopher Georg Hegel declared the German civil service had ended history, the idea of the state as the embodiment of reason has meant something to Germans that it did not mean to others -- in both a noble and a horrible sense. We are now at the noble end of the spectrum, but the idea that the state is the embodiment of reason still doesn't capture the European reality. The Brussels bureaucracy is based on the German view that a disinterested civil servant can produce rational solutions that partisan politicians and self-interested citizens could not.

The founding concept of the European Union involves joining nations that do not share this view, and even find it bizarre, with a nation for which it is the cultural core. This has created the fundamental existential issue in the European Union.

The realization that the rational civil servants of Brussels and Berlin have failed to create systems that understand reality strikes at German self-perceptions. There is a willful urge to retain the perception that they understand what is going on. From the standpoint of Southern and Central Europe, the realization that the Germans genuinely thought that the states on the EU periphery had reached the level of precision of the German civil services (assuming Germany had in fact reached that stage), or that they even wanted to, is a shock. Their publics, which saw the European Union as a means of getting in on German prosperity without undergoing a massive social upheaval putting the state and the civil service -- disciplined and rational -- at the center of their society, experienced an even greater shock.

The political and geopolitical problem is simply this: Germany is unique in Europe in terms of both size and values. It tried to create a free trade zone based on German values allied with France that looked at the world in a much more complex way. The crisis we are seeing, which Germany is trying to solve with extraordinary complexity and precision, rests on a highly unstable base. First, the European banking system, like the American banking system, does not understand its status. Second, the entire mathematics of national statistics is inherently imprecise. Third, the peripheral countries of the European Union have economies that cannot be measured at all because their informal economies are massive. The fundamental principles and self-conception of Germany and Central Europe diverge massively. The elites of these countries might like to think of themselves as Europeans first -- by the German definition -- but the publics know they are not, and they don't want to be.

The precision of the bailout schemes reveals the underlying misunderstanding of reality by Europe's elites, and specifically by the Germans. To be more precise, this is willful misunderstanding. They all know that their precision rests on a foundation of uncertainty. They are buying time hoping that prosperity will return, mooting all of these problems. But the problem is that a precise solution to a vastly uncertain problem is unlikely to return Europe to its happy past. Reality -- or rather the fundamental unreality of Europe -- has returned.

In some sense, this is no different from the United States and China. But the United States has its Constitution and the Civil War's consequences to hold itself together in the face of this problem, and China has the Communist Party's security apparatus to give it a shot. Europe, by contrast, has nothing to hold it together but the promise of prosperity and the myth of the rational civil servant -- the cultural and political side of the underlying geopolitical problem.

 

European Crisis: Precise Solutions in an Imprecise Reality is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

 

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  • Iran Vows Retaliation in Case of Any 'Preventive Attack'
  • Iran Has Much to Lose if Syria's Assad Falls
  • Saudis: 'We're Killing Too Many Civilians in Yemen? Then Give Us Drones'
  • 100 Hamas Members Arrested Just Before UN Vote for Palestinian Statehood
  • West Bank Economy Slows as Aid Drops and Statehood Jitters Grow
  • For Hamas Silence on Palestinian Statehood Is Golden
  • Gaddafi Insists He is Still in Libya
  • The Iraq War Isn't Over
  • Insurgents Take Over Key Somali Border Town
  • Government Soldier Kills 10 at Mogadishu Refugee Camp
  • Dire Pollution in Ogoniland But Little Action So Far
  • Afghanistan: Patchy Progress on Education
  • Kashmir Police Question 3 in Delhi Bombing
  • Indian Democracy Gets a Wake-Up Call
  • India: No Counter-Revolution Please
  • Australia - Outsourcing Asia's Refugees: A Fair Trade?
  • BC Estimates $2.3 Billion Cost To Revert To Provincial Sales Tax
  • 9/11 Anniversary Subdued in Many Areas
  • Al-Qaeda Lost the Battle Long Ago
  • 10 Years of 9/11 Wars is Enough
  • Why Al Qaeda is Unlikely to Execute Another 9/11
  • One Thing Steve Jobs Couldn't Change: Our Mortality
  • What I Did (and Didn't Do) on My Summer Vacation
  • 9/11 in Retrospect: Bush's Grand Strategy, Reconsidered
  • War Costs Greater Than Acknowledged and Continuing to Climb
  • China, the United States, and Global Order
  • Palestine Goes to the UN
  • Europe's Palestine Problem
  • Turkey-Israel: What's next?
  • Turkey's Akyol, An Apostle Of The Third Way
  • Will Oil Drown the Arab Spring?
  • Al Qaeda's Challenge
  • Libya's 'Precarious' Transition Ahead
  • 7 Challenges for Post-Qadhafi Libya
  • To the Shores of Tripoli
  • Victory in Tripoli. Bleakness Elsewhere
  • Egypt: The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood
  • Commanding Democracy in Egypt
  • Bahrain Stumbles on Road to Recovery
  • Syria's Al-Assad Gets the Picture as Satire Comes to YouTube
  • Kurds Unite Amid Onslaught
  • Former Israeli Army Chief Says Talk to Hamas
  • For Russia New Middle East will be Tough Arms Market
  • Arab Spring Still Fails to Deliver on Human Rights
  • The Hype and the Reality of China's Economic Rise
  • A New Kind of Korea: Building Trust Between Seoul and Pyongyang
  • Kim Jong Il's Visit to Russia: Just More Mixed Messages?
  • North Korea Accuses South Korea of Plotting to Destroy Its Socialist System
  • South Korea Suicide Rate Doubles in 10 Years
  • Tokyo's Transformation: How Japan Is Changing
  • Credit Suisse Downgrades Forecast for Philippine Economic Growth
  • Mexico and the United States: Surgical Strikes in the Drug Wars
  • Despite Victory, Argentine Leader Faces Hard Choices
  • Chilean 'Model' Is Shaken, but Very Much Alive
  • Student Protests May Lead to a Better Chile
  • Winds of Change: Uruguay's Sustainable Energy Plans
  • Leaving Afghanistan to the Afghans
  • Balkan Countries Work To Round Up Privately Held Weapons
  • Former Iceland Prime Minister On Trial Over Banking Sector Collapse
  • Germany's Rail Set to Run on 100 Percent Renewable Energy
  • Divvying up South Sudan
  • Somalia Seeks More Troops Against Al-Shabaab
  • 20,000 Flee Blue Nile Clashes
  • Climate of Fear Ahead of Gambia Presidential Elections
  • Hungry Kenyan Families Sending Children Out to Beg
  • Somali Border Town Feels the Refugee Pressure
  • Cholera Soars in Lake Chad Basin Countries
  • Somali Pirates Grow More Daring
  • Two Million Hit By Floods in Pakistan's Sindh Province
  • Global Health: Meaty Concerns
  • Global Health: A Seminal Moment?
  • Human Trafficking: The Wound That Shames Our Present
  • How New Atrocity-Prevention Steps Can Work
  • 9/11 Anniversary: Rethink Needed
  • 9/11 Anniversary: From Empire to Decline
  • 9/11 Anniversary: Scanning Bodies, Stripping Rights?
  • Assassination as Foreign Policy
  • Eurozone Manufacturing Slowing
  • European Union Spending Cuts and Tax Hikes Hurt GDP Growth
  • Who's Worse Off: Europe or the United States?
  • Germany: German Tiger or European Growth Engine?
  • Greece Forecasts Economic Contraction to be Worse than Expected
  • Collateral Deals will Have Negative Impact on Greece
  • Spain Announces Temporary Tax Cut to Stimulate New House Sales
  • Eastern Mediterranean Olive Oil Producers Seek Markets in Far East
  • High North: The New Frontier
  • The Politics of the London Riots
  • Young Westerners -- Deprived or Decadent?
  • Explanations and Excuses for English Riots
  • Many British Households See Steeper Rise in Debt
  • Young Turks Returning Home to Chase Economic Dreams
  • The Pain in Spain
  • Multiculturalism and Dutch Political Culture
  • Macedonia Eyes Its Future in Antiquity
  • The Saudi Counterrevolution
  • Libya Threatens to Become Terrorist Arms Depot
  • Libya: Protection Challenge For The Opposition
  • Libya After Gadhafi: Transitioning from Rebellion to Rule
  • Why Are Some Progressives Gloating over Libya?
  • Egypt's Reluctant Rulers
  • Fear and Blogging in the Arab world
  • Middle East: The Future of Women
  • Middle East: Bread and Dignity
  • Middle East: Palestine Towards Statehood
  • Israeli - Arab Crisis Approaching
  • The Upcoming Palestinian Uprising
  • Israeli Settlements Keep Middle East Unsettled
  • Syrian Opposition Tries to Unite
  • Assad Rejects International Calls to Resign
  • Obama Calls for Syrian President Assad to Step Down
  • Cranking up Pressure on Syria
  • Violence in Iraq Raises Questions About American Withdrawal
  • Egypt's Brotherhood Declares War on the Bikini
  • Labor Pains in Saudi Arabia as Hiring Deadline Nears
  • Gulf Markets Worry About Oil Outlook
  • Jordanian King Promises Reform to Skeptical Public
  • China and the United States' Debt
  • China's New Aircraft Carrier Bolsters Its Regional Reach
  • China Outpaces United States in PC Market
  • Moody's Downgrades Japan Credit Rating Over Deficit Concerns
  • Kim Jong-Il Pushes China for New Nuclear Talks
  • North Korea's Rare Pledge to Abandon Nuclear Activities
  • Indonesia: Pluralism vs Vigilantism
  • South Sudan: Labor Pains
  • Somalia: Pro-government Rally Held in Mogadishu
  • Kenya: 'Perfect Storm' Brewing Among Urban Poor
  • Latin America's Security Dilemma
  • A President-for-Life in Argentina? Not Likely
  • There's Hope for Mexico and Central America
  • Chile: The Fight to Make Education a Guaranteed Right
  • Death of Layton Poses Challenge for NDP Interim Leader
  • Global Economic Downturn: A Crisis of Political Economy
  • Crisis of Confidence: Debt Debate Erodes US Global Standing
  • United States Debt Downgrade Won't Have Much Short-Term Effect on Foreign Policy
  • The Empathy Deficit
  • Stiglitz Upbeat About China and Latin America
  • China Trade Surplus Rises
  • China Sees Inflation Rate Hit 6.5%
  • Latin America Not Immune to U.S. Debt Deal
  • Is Japan Now a Good Bet?
  • Is Germany the New Safe Haven?
  • Islam and Arab Political Change
  • Iran Reshaping Persian Gulf Politics
  • Diplomatic Pressure on Al-Assad Gaining Momentum
  • Arab Nations Join Call For Al Assad To Stop Civilian Attacks
  • Bahrain and Kuwait recall Syria envoys
  • Clinton Says Syrian Government has Lost Legitimacy
  • September Looms Large in Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
  • Israel's Growing Wealth Gap Fuels Economic Anger
  • Israel and Cyprus Forging Ahead on Gas Bonanza
  • Major Israeli Defense Merger Dropped
  • Israel Approves 1,600 Settler Homes in East Jerusalem
  • Mini UAV Chopper For Urban Warfare Revealed
  • Roman-era Sword Uncovered in Ancient Ditch in Jerusalem
  • Hamas: Palestinian Authority is Clamping Down On Our Preachers
  • Warnings of 'Somalization' And All Out Civil War in Yemen
  • Missing Out on Vital Medicines Because of Economic Crisis
  • Jordanians Lash Out Against Planned Nuclear Reactor
  • Jordanian Mosque Named After Jesus
  • Troop Withdrawal Rests on Decision From Iraq
  • Somali Forces and African Union Peacekeepers Gradually Expand Control In Mogadishu
  • Somali President: Combat Operations Against Al-Shabaab Will Continue
  • Al-Shabab Pullout: The Beginning Of The End in Somalia?
  • Africa: Tough Choices As Food Prices Continue To Rise
  • Nigeria: Jail Threat for Polio Vaccination Refuseniks
  • Congo: Implement Anti-Discrimination Law, Urge Indigenous Peoples
  • Congo: High-Tech Measures To Curb Illegal Fishing In Congo
  • Raw Sewage Kills in Madagascar
  • Tanzania: Violence Against Children Rampant
  • Maternal Deaths Quadruple In South Africa
  • United States and Pakistan Navigate New Tensions in Fraught Relationship
  • Pakistan's Forgotten 2005 Quake Victims Still Need Help
  • China Announces Sea Trial Of Its First Aircraft Carrier
  • Indonesia's Global Significance
  • Seoul Blasts Pyongyang For Fabricating Shelling Incident
  • North Korea Planned Assassination of South Korean Defense Minister
  • Calls For End To Torture and Extrajudicial Killings By Bangladeshi Police
  • Muslim Rebels Seek Substate In Philippines
  • DOJ Places Former Philippine President On Immigration Watchlist
  • Britain Sticks With Austerity Plan
  • Cameron Announces Crackdown On Facemasks
  • Norway: The Sky Is Weeping
  • Norway Attacks a Tragic Result of Failed Immigration Policies
  • Norway: Blaming the Muslims
  • Norway: Breivik's Real Enemy: Himself
  • Brazil Joins Race for Globalized Students
  • OAS Is a Basket Case - but a Needed One

 

Available at Amazon.com:

Aftermath: Following the Bloodshed of America's Wars in the Muslim World

Displacement and Dispossession in the Modern Middle East (The Contemporary Middle East)

Enemies of Intelligence

The End of History and the Last Man

The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

 

Copyright 2011, iHaveNet.com - All Rights Reserved

 

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