Despite the gains of the Orange Revolution, the spectre of tyranny is once again hanging over Ukraine

When President Viktor Yanukovych came to power in 2010, many observers were under the impression that the democratic gains of the previous decade would prevent Ukraine from sliding back into authoritarianism. They were wrong.

From his first days in office Yanukovych was determined to undo the results of the Orange Revolution, the protest movement in 2004 that forced him to quit the presidency following a disputed election.

Seven months after his inauguration, he revived the pre-Orange Revolution constitution of 1996, returning many powers to the presidency. The revolution's leaders still active in politics, Yulia Tymoshenko and Yuri Lutsenko, were arrested.

Tymoshenko, who served as prime minister twice and was an unsuccessful challenger for the presidency in 2010, was given a seven-year jail term for abuse of office.

As far back as 2001, she faced charges of corruption but these were dismissed. Tymoshenko's trial in 2011 was thus perceived, both in Ukraine and internationally, as an act of political vengeance.

Today many Ukrainians believe that Yanukovych wants to turn Ukraine into a one-party state, the property of his family and his 'Party of Regions'. During two years in office, the first family is said to have amassed immense financial resources. Oleksandr Yanukovych, the president's son, has just entered Ukraine's top 100 rich list. Some say his estimated $100 million fortune is the tip of the iceberg.

Politics in Ukraine is, not surprisingly, more heated than ever. The cover of a leading magazine features Arseniy Yatseniuk, a leader of the united opposition, describing the government as bandits.

Internationally, the Ukrainian leader has alienated his country's key partners. The West is unusually united in demanding the release of Tymoshenko. Brussels has made it clear that the new EU Association Agreement and the free trade agreement will not be signed until human rights and political freedoms are observed. Far from releasing her, the Prosecutor General has said he is preparing more charges, for tax evasion and a possible connection to a 1996 murder.

Some European leaders are planning to boycott the European Football Championship in Ukraine in June.

The IMF has frozen negotiations with Ukraine due to the government's failure to keep its promise to raise heavily subsidised gas prices for households. In 2011, Ukraine lost $3.5 billion of expected transfers under the $15 billion IMF stand-by programme. The fate of the next $1.5 billion tranche remains uncertain.

As for Russia, it is standing ready to rescue Ukraine. The president of state-owned Sberbank, German Gref, has suggested that Russia could offer a replacement loan worth $8.2 billion if IMF negotiations fail.

Observers can only wonder what strings might be attached: further control over Ukrainian pipelines or other economic assets, political loyalty, enforced membership in Russia's actively promoted customs union? With its strained relations with the West, Ukraine is hardly in a strong negotiating position.

International isolation of Ukraine means that the country is closing up to the world, but does not necessarily mean that it is moving closer to Russia. Most probably it will remain in limbo between the two.

Most ordinary citizens believe that Ukraine is moving in the wrong direction. Ukrainians generally aspire to be part of Europe, with more than 50 per cent of young people supporting EU membership, even in eastern and southern Ukraine, traditionally perceived as pro-Russian.

Citizens are also concerned by government back-tracking on rights and freedoms. Sixty-six per cent do not support Yanukovych and only 16 per cent support his party. No ruling party in the West could win elections with such figures, yet there is no loss of confidence by the Party of Regions. Control over the judiciary, administration and the media helps.

It remains to be seen how much more tolerance a society with a track record of civil protest will show towards blatant curbs on pluralism. It is equally unclear how well the opposition will be able to articulate society's anger. Despite being somewhat tarnished by two stints in power, Tymoshenko could have served as a rallying point for the opposition, but she is likely to be behind bars for years to come.

Civil society is trying to preserve some hard-won freedoms: sometimes they win, sometimes they lose. For now they can only shout that the state is depriving millions of Ukrainians of a European future.

(Orysia Lutsevych, Robert Bosch Fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme.)

 

 

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