Joshua Kucera
When it comes to dealing with the United States and NATO on security issues in Central Asia, Russia is acting tough while operating from a position of increasing weakness.
Of late, Russia has tried to bolster the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in the hopes that it will be able to pick up any slack, in terms of heightened security risks, arising out of the US and NATO drawdown in Afghanistan. The phased withdrawal is scheduled to conclude in 2014. To date, NATO has kept the CSTO at arm's length, rejecting the latter's requests to work jointly in handling regional security threats. Getting NATO to change its mind has proven difficult for Russia, and it is a problem that's clearly vexing the Kremlin.
Russian policy planners see NATO-CSTO cooperation down the road in Central Asia as essential. "The withdrawal of the international coalition from Afghanistan will inevitably lead to the expansion of the Taliban, which will create a serious security problem for Central Asian countries, as well as Russia," a recent report, published the Institute for Contemporary Development, a Russian think tank, stated.
"Russia will find it extraordinarily difficult to deal with this threat without an international coalition component," the report added. "Given such a situation, it is both necessary and possible to expand cooperation with NATO against the 'Afghan threat.'"
Russia also is pushing for the CSTO to gain a role in managing the Northern Distribution Network, a web of air, road and rail routes that ferries supplies from Europe to US and NATO troops in Afghanistan. Currently, the Pentagon has bilateral agreements with all of the countries involved.
Working with the CSTO would be simplify re-supply logistics, claimed Yevgeny Buzhinsky, a retired Russian defense official who led the initial Russian discussions US planners on NDN's operations. "It would be much more effective if it was done on the basis of cooperation with the CSTO," Buzhinsky said. "The United States needs a solid, universal agreement and it's better to have it within the CSTO."
Moscow's effort could reflect fundamental policy shift: thus far, Russia has been largely hostile to US activities in Central Asia, especially in the security realm. So an attempt at expanding cooperation could be seen as a softening of that opposition. But it also could be interpreted as a ploy designed to weaken bilateral relationships that the United States has established with Central Asian states.
Whatever the case, as the US interest in Afghanistan wanes, Russia's position becomes more complicated. "Now, we say: 'You have a problem there, we can help.' When the coalition leaves Afghanistan, the situation will be reversed – Russia will need help," said Andrei Zagorski, an expert on Russia's relations with the West at Moscow's Institute of World Economy and International Relations.
So far, US officials have remained skeptical about Russia's intentions. Such wariness is readily evident on the issue of narcotics trafficking out of Afghanistan. Russia has sought to coordinate CSTO activities with NATO, but joint action has been stymied over tactical differences. Russia wants an aggressive effort to destroy poppy fields in Afghanistan, while US officials believe that such action would be counterproductive by antagonizing Afghanistan's population.
A State Department cable from 2009 released by Wikileaks, revealed that US officials see the CSTO as a Moscow-supported tool designed to obstruct the United States from achieving its policy goals in the former Soviet Union.
"We maintain that while NATO strives to enhance its engagement with Russia, including cooperation that could lead to practical results, such as greater Russian assistance to Afghanistan, it would be counterproductive for NATO to engage with the CSTO, an organization initiated by Moscow to counter potential NATO and US influence in the former Soviet space," the cable stated.
"To date, the CSTO has proven ineffective in most areas of activity and has been politically divided," the cable went on to note. "NATO engagement with the CSTO could enhance the legitimacy of what may be a waning organization, contributing to a bloc-on-bloc dynamic reminiscent of the Cold War."
It's not just US skepticism that is hindering NATO-CSTO cooperation, some members of the Russia-led alliance are also wary of closer organizational ties. Central Asian leaders seem likely to resist any effort to redirect their relations with Washington through Moscow. In particular, Uzbekistan, a key US partner in Central Asia, has lately been distancing itself from the CSTO, declining to participate in the recent exercises. Another formerly Soviet state that borders Afghanistan – Turkmenistan -- isn't even a CSTO member.
"The CSTO will be a problem, politically, for Russia," Zagorski said. "We want NATO to have a formal relationship with the CSTO. Most of the CSTO countries don't want this to happen. Moscow is seeking to channel its cooperation with NATO through the CSTO. And this concern is very much legitimate."
Moscow appears to be operating under the belief that Central Asian states will come around and decide they need Russia's protection. "[Uzbekistan President Islam] Karimov has to decide if he wants to be a true ally, or if he will leave. ... He is trying to be a bridge to the West, but he doesn't realize that this is the wrong concept, the western concept of imposing democracy in Uzbekistan, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, is going nowhere," Zagorski said.
Turkmenistan, Zagorski added, has recently been increasing its activity in the Commonwealth of Independent States, under whose auspices the CSTO operates. "Turkmenistan also understands that it needs support," he said.
In the end, Moscow may settle for something less than full cooperation with the CSTO, knowing that the United States is resistant to the idea. But the Kremlin will expect some sort of coordination with Washington, Zagorski said. "If Moscow is confronted with increased direct US and NATO cooperation with individual countries in the region [Central Asia] without an increased cooperation with Russia, and without mutual transparency, this is going to be a problem," he said.
Originally published by EurasiaNet.org
Twitter: @ihavenet
- Opinions Strong About Gaddafi's End and Libya's New Beginning
- Libyans Celebrate Gaddafi's Death
- Wall Street (Unlike)
- Animal Spirits: Shaping Patterns of Economic Growth
- Assessing the Damage of the European Banking Crisis
- Better Ways Forward for the European Union
- Solving A Deadly Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis
- Steve Jobs May Have Failed Abroad
- Behind Europe's Debt Crisis Lurks Another Wall Street Bailout
- Sluggish America Can Still Be a World Leader
- US Economic Woes Put China in the Political Crosshairs
- Newspaper Nostalgia
- Veterans: The Human Rubble of Our Wars
- A Devalued Renminbi Makes Wealthier Americans
- US Fears Misplaced When it Comes to China
- United States - South Korea Trade Deal Win-Win for Jobs and Economy
- Predator in Chief
- United States Accusations Turn Up Heat in Simmering Gulf
- Congress, Administration Discuss Next Steps on Iran
- Iran and The Diminishing Returns of Reasonableness
- What if Arbabsiar Was All About the Drugs, Not Terror?
- Terror Plot's Mystery Link to Iran
- What War Between Iran and Saudi Arabia Might Look Like
- Yemen's Turbulent Spring
- Dealing with the Haqqanis
- The Conservative Case Against a Border Fence
- GOP Uses Border Fence as Immigration Distraction for 2012
- Learning From Mexico's Coalition Debate
- Mexican Constitution Now Recognizes Right to Food
- Islamic Plot to Bomb U.S. Embassy Reported in Mexico
- The Suppression of Democracy in Haiti
- Colombia: Human Rights Issues Unanswered
- Chinese Investment Flows Continue to Aid Brazil's Ascendency
- Free Trade Is Not So Free: The Panamanian Case
- Arab Spring, Israeli Isolation
- Israeli - Palestinian Conflict: The Prisoner Swap
- Iran Alleged Assassination Plot: Emboldened by Nuke Program?
- The Real Nuclear Threat From Iran May Not Be Nuclear Weapons
- From the Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush: Rethinking the Region
- Price of the Libya Intervention: Surface to Air Missiles for All
- Exporters Armed Arab Spring Crackdown
- Fighting Escalates in Yemen
- Hamas Gains From Prisoner Swap Likely to Fade
- Mossad Gets Dragged Into Latest British Political Scandal
- Black Magic Widespread in Saudi Arabia
- Syria: Alawites Go On Arms Shopping Spree
- Children Man Barricades in Northern Kosovo
- Macedonia's EU Bid Still Mired in Name Issue
- Turkey Needs Further Reforms
- 'Ottomania' on the Rise in Turkey
- Turkey: Cartoonist Faces Trial for Asserting that 'Religion Is a Lie'
- Turkey - Russia Relations and Missile Defense
- The Black Sea: A Forgotten Geo-strategic Realm
- Central Asia: Russia Grapples with a Security Dilemma
- Russia: Is Moscow Heading Toward the Time of Troubles?
- China and the South China Sea Dispute
- South China Sea Disputes: Why conflict is Not Inevitable
- Burma's Junta: Can a Tiger Change Its Stripes?
- Japan: Ozawa Ichiro on Trial
- India-China Economic Dialogue: A View from Beijing
- India-Afghanistan Partnership Through the Eyes of the Pakistani Media
- India Falters in Countering Terrorism
- The Last Colony in Africa
- Beyond Good Versus Evil: Fighting Somalia's Perpetual War
- Heavy Casualties as Somali Forces Attack Rebel Stronghold
- Somali Forces Seize District in Lower Jubba from Insurgents
- Hard Times Lead Young Somalis to Delay Marriage
- Kenya's Risky Intervention into Somalia
- Children Tempted With a Phone to Carry a Gun
- African Drought Response: Lessons Still to Learn
- Rumpus Over Genetically Modified Food Aid in Africa
- Great Game in the Horn of Africa
- Crowds and Constitutions: Insights from Iceland
- Beyond the Nation-State
- The Human Rights Council: 5 Years On
- United States Prepares Sanctions Against Iran for Bomb Plot
- Iran Denies Alleged Plot to Kill Saudi Envoy
- Cyber Security as a Wicked Problem
- An Alternative Eulogy for Steve Jobs
- Americas to Become Mecca of World's Energy
- Time for United States to Think Big on Latin America
- Latin Universities Index Doesn't Tell Full Story
- Blind Eye to Colombia's Questionable Human Rights Record
- United States - Cuba Policy Staggers from Inept to Pedestrian
- Rick Perry Proposal of American Troops in Mexico Stirs Criticism
- GOP Candidates Look at Narco-Terrorism Risks
- Dexia Bank's Collapse and the European Financial Crisis
- European Crisis: Precise Solutions in an Imprecise Reality
- Slovakia Thumbs Down on Euro Bailout Fund Hike
- Greek Anger and Greece's Survival
- A Win-Win Strategy for Investors in Greece
- Amid Strikes, Greek Workers are Hurting
- Without Textbooks Greek School Year Starts in Confusion
- Putin's Comeback: Fast Forward to the Past
- NATO and Russia: Missile Defense Sticking Point?
- Russia's Arctic Embrace: Cold War Reloaded
- Putin Calls For Eurasian Union In Former Soviet Space
- United Kingdom Riots: State of Denial
- UK Unemployment Rises to 17-year High
- Study Estimates 3 Million British Children in Poverty by 2013
- Bank of England Pours More Money Into Quantitative Easing
- Britain Shuts Down Family Access Immigration Route
- EC Recommends Serbia Gain EU Candidate Status
- Spanish Court Won't Let Cameraman Couso Killing Die
- Poland's Tusk Wins Historic Second Term
- Turkey: Making Room for Religious Minorities
- Cyprus: Waters Roil in Eastern Mediterranean
- A Nuclear Retaliation Alternative for India
- Strategic Partnership with Afghanistan: India Showcases Soft Power
- The India - Bangladesh Border: A New Beginning
- Pakistan's Sponsorship of Terrorism Is Undeniable
- Energy Crises and Riots in Pakistan
- Dante in Karachi: Circles of Crime in a Megacity
- Children in 2005 Pakistan Earthquake Zone Still Lack Schools
- Afghanistan: The Regional Complex
- Afghanistan's Energy War
- Afghanistan War Marks 10th Year Quietly
- Bono's African Philanthropy Could Use a Remix
- The Dadaab Camps: The Daemon in the Detail
- Dadaab Camps: A Day in the Life of a Refugee
- Senegal: Demining Machine Clears Path For Better Future
- Somalia: African Union Forces Attack Al Shabaab's Strongholds
- Worst Forms of Child Labor Still Widespread in Africa
- South Africa: Deportations of Zimbabwean Migrants Set to Resume
- Uganda: New facility to Concentrate on Cancer
- Africa: Why Involving Men is Crucial
- Zimbabwe: Poverty Alleviation Program Targets Kids
- The Economics of the Arab Spring
- Many Arabs Stay Hopeful Even as Economies Sag
- Arab World Poised for Economic Growth Spurt
- Fear of an Islamic Planet
- Riots in Cairo
- Egyptian Army Turns Guns on Its Citizens
- Timeline of Egyptian Sectarian Violence
- A New Phase in Post-Mubarak Egypt
- Boycott Looms as Egyptian Elections Near
- Anxious Campaign Season Opens in Tunisia
- Saudi Security Force Ramps Up
- Sectarian Rifts Erupt Again in Saudi Arabia
- Libya: Winning the Peace Collectively
- Concerns Over 'Rampant Torture' Rise in Syria
- Syria: Redrawing the Political Foundations
- Lieberman Calls for No-Fly Zone Over Syria
- Syrian Crackdown Reaches London and Paris
- Anwar Al Awlaki Death Doesn't Solve Yemen's Problems
- Yemen: Fallout from the al-Awlaki Airstrike
- Why America Should Pay Attention to Egyptian Elections
- Boxed in on the Middle East
- Even Non-Violent Palestinian Intifada Seems Unlikely Now
- Art Comes to Jerusalem Open Market
- Israel: Bittersweet Reunion of Righteous Gentiles
- Jewish Extremists Burn Mosque in Israel
- Israeli 'Price Tag' Vandals Mark Up Violence
- Rise of the Renminbi as International Currency
- China: Significance and Implications of Tiangong 1
- China Orders Closure of 13 Wal-Marts for Selling Mislabeled Pork
- China Launches Own Iron Ore Price Index
- South Korea's Naval Base on Ulleung Island
- Why 2012 Will Shake Up Asia and the World
- Rights Groups Moves High Court on Beheading of 8 Bangladeshi
- Bangladesh World's 5th Most Vulnerable Country for Climate Change
- Bangladesh's Grameenphone and Teletalk Partner on Cell Phone Early Disaster Warning System
- How Space Technology Aids Flood Response
- Philippine Supreme Court Reverses Ruling Favoring Fired PAL Cabin Crews
- Malaysia Refugee Swap Deal Gets Support from UNHCR
- Australian Alps Could Be Bare of Snow by 2050
- Qantas Orders 110 Jets from Airbus
- Coal Exports Boost Australian Trade Balance
- Hard Facts: The World Is Getting Better
- United Nations Can't Save the Oppressed, But It Can Give Them a Voice
- Obama's International Outsourcing
- Radical Islamist Cleric Anwar al-Awlaki Killed in Yemen
- Anwar Al-Awlaki's Death Major Victory For Counter-Terrorism
- United States Gaze Turns to Uzbeks
- Fiscal Union for the Euro: Some Lessons from History
- German Parliament Approves Hike in EU Loan Guarantees
- Preparing for Greece's Failure
- Despite Austerity Measures Greece Will Still Miss EU Budget Cut Targets
- Greece Working to Convince EU it Can Meet Austerity Demands
- Greek Parliament Approves New Property Tax
- Greeks to Face Further Tough Measures
- Albania's Unsettled Past
- Balkans Summit Extols Regional Co-Operation
- Erdogan Pushes for Common Future with Balkan States
- Turkey's Sinking Lira Defies Soaring Economy
- Kukan: Dialogue Not Barricades
- Arab Spring Turkish Harvest
- Iran at a Crossroads
- Iran's Support of Syria Is Backfiring
- The Mottled Relationship: Iran and Latin America
- Is It a Mistake to Draw Solace From Iran's Long Bomb Gestation Period?
- Arab Spring Added Pressures to Middle East Peace Process
- Israel Accepts Quartet Proposal to Resume Peace Talks
- Blocking Palestinian Statehood
- The Occupation That Time Forgot
- Israeli Parliamentarians Call for Annexation of West Bank
- U.S. Congress: Standard Bearer for Israeli Expansion
- Michele Bachmann 'Blames' Obama for Arab Spring
- Saudis Tussle Over Textbook
- Saudi Arabia Grants Women Limited Right to Vote
- Egypt Eyes New Arms Suppliers
- Saleh Return Deepens Crisis In Yemen
- Other Leaders Should Copy Brazil's Anti-graft Measures
- Obama's U.N. Omission: The War Next Door
- The Drug War Spreads the Bloodbath South
- Mexican Cartels and Pan American Games: A Threat Assessment
- Mexico: Death by Social Media
- Big Agriculture's Latin American Exploits
- Is Free Trade Good for Colombia
- China in Search of Energy Security
- Cuba's Domestic Reforms Surge Past Immobilized United States
- Fears Over Environmental Affects Prompt Court To Halt Mega-Dam Project
- Bolivian Workers Strike to Protest Controversial Highway
- Afghanistan is Obama's Gordian Knot
- Why Are Pakistan's Militant Groups Splintering?
- Questions Raised About Haqqani Network Ties with Pakistan
- Russia Strives to Clarify Vision for Central Asian Alliance
- Azerbaijan Faces Difficult Choice Between Turkey and Israel
- Azerbaijan Wrestles with Iranian Predicament
- In Post-Soviet Central Asia Russian Takes Back Seat
- Stabilizing Congo
- The Balkanization of Somalia
- Refugees Still Vulnerable in Southern Kordofan
- Al Shabaab Attacks Kill 16 at Key Somali Border Town
- Is Africa New Breeding Place for Terrorism?
- Somali Media Press on with Work Despite Deadly Challenges
- China-Indian Trade: Smoothening the Rough Edges
- The Survival of North Korea
- The 'Orchid Revolution' in Singapore
- Counterinsurgency and 'Op Sadhbhavana' in Jammu and Kashmir
- Indian Foreign Policy in Search of a Balance
- Philippines Struggles After Two Typhoons
- Typhoon Nesat Death Toll Rises to 20
- Islamist Rampage Blamed in Bangladesh Riots
- United States to Help Bangladesh Combat Bird Flu
- Indian Earthquake Prompts 'Wake-Up Call'
- Evolution of a Pakistani Militant Network
- Afghanistan: Rabbani Assassination May Peel Tajiks Away from Kabul
- Rabbani Assassination: An Assertive Taliban and America's Dilemmas
- Light at End of Afghan Tunnel Recedes
- Karachi's Long Summer of Violence
- Afghanistan: Patchy Progress on Education
- Kashmir Police Question 3 in Delhi Bombing
- Indian Democracy Gets a Wake-Up Call
- India: No Counter-Revolution Please
- Al-Qaeda Lost the Battle Long Ago
- 10 Years of 9/11 Wars is Enough
- Why Al Qaeda is Unlikely to Execute Another 9/11
- War Costs Greater Than Acknowledged and Continuing to Climb
- Al Qaeda's Challenge
- Leaving Afghanistan to the Afghans
- Balkan Countries Work To Round Up Privately Held Weapons
- Two Million Hit By Floods in Pakistan's Sindh Province
- Assassination as Foreign Policy
Available at Amazon.com:
Aftermath: Following the Bloodshed of America's Wars in the Muslim World
Displacement and Dispossession in the Modern Middle East (The Contemporary Middle East)
The End of History and the Last Man
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
Copyright 2011, iHaveNet.com All Rights Reserved