Foreign Affairs
May 9, 2011
The killing of
The significance of what was accomplished stems from bin Laden's symbolic importance. He has been an icon, one representing the ability to strike with success against
There is also the demonstration effect of what U.S. Special Forces are able to do. It sends a clear message to terrorists that they are at least as vulnerable as those they would seek to hurt.
But any celebration needs to be tempered by two realities. The first is that bin Laden's demise is in no way to be equated with the demise of terrorism. There is no time for a V-T Day -- a Victory over Terrorism Day celebration.
Terrorism is a decentralized phenomenon -- in its funding, planning, and execution. Removing bin Laden does not end the threat. There are successors in al-Qaeda -- and successors in autonomous groups operating out of
The second reason for responding with caution to this welcome development is that it underscores yet again that
The death of
As the region moved beyond bin Laden's ideology, it also left behind his methods. Al-Qaeda had professed that the only means of displacing Arab despots was to unleash terror against their presumed patron --
In the end, the
Bin Laden's death brings to a close the decade-long search for the mastermind of the terrorist attacks against
In the
Given the unrest sweeping the Arab world, bin Laden's death is likely to be less significant to the people of the
Now that Arabs from the Atlantic to the Gulf of
Even as al-Qaeda and its theoreticians welcomed the recent demise of
If countries in the region manage to make the transition to more open political systems, individuals will have the opportunity to resolve their grievances through political institutions that preclude them from taking up arms against their own states or
That said,
What does the death of
The positive impact is obvious: bin Laden had a close alliance with Taliban leader Mullah Omar. No doubt many Taliban and associated operatives (e.g., in the Haqqani network) viewed bin Laden as a great holy warrior who charted the way forward in the battle against infidels, crusaders, and Zionists. His death could, therefore, strike a significant psychological blow against insurgents. It may also have more direct repercussions. If bin Laden was still acting, as he had in the past, as a key intermediary between the Taliban and its wealthy Persian Gulf backers, then his death would clearly interrupt the flow of funding.
But oddly enough, bin Laden's death may also be a setback for the U.S. war effort in
Whatever al-Qaeda's fate (and it is too early to tell whether it will be able to survive its "emir's" demise), other Islamist terrorist groups will not be significantly hindered. This includes groups such as the Pakistani Taliban, the Afghan Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the Haqqani network, all at least as virulent as al-Qaeda if lacking, so far, its global ambition. A comprehensive counterinsurgency campaign in
Moreover, by maintaining a large presence in
Some Pakistanis, already enraged over U.S. drone strikes and the Raymond Davis affair, are more concerned about the U.S. raid in Abbottabad being a violation of
Many Americans, convinced that
Americans and Pakistanis, therefore, have reasons to give in to their mistrust. A more constructive outcome is possible, but it will require both sides to think about long-term interests rather than near-term frustrations. If handled smartly, bin Laden's death could mark a major reversal of momentum for extremists and their supporters throughout
That reversal would have to start in
But that would not be enough. Bin Laden's death hardly clears the way for disengagement from
Unfortunately, bin Laden's death is more likely to exacerbate tensions between
The U.S. killing of
The killing is not prohibited by the longstanding assassination prohibition in Executive Order 12333 because the action was a military action in the ongoing U.S. armed conflict with al-Qaeda and it is not prohibited to kill specific leaders of an opposing force. The assassination prohibition also does not apply to killings in self-defense. The executive branch will also argue that the action was permissible under international law both as a permissible use of force in the U.S. armed conflict with al-Qaeda and as a legitimate action in self-defense, given that bin Laden was clearly planning additional attacks.
Some critics of the administration's legal theory that
In addition, under the UN Charter,
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