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By Charles Emmerson
Desirable waterfront property. Fast-changing neighbourhood. Three million square miles. Twenty-two million inhabitants. Ample room for expansion. As global politics and economic development pivot to Asia, Australia is itself becoming a pivotal country in regional and global affairs.
It may take some getting used to - for Australians, and for everyone else.
For much of the 20th century, the defining factor in Australia's worldview - and the world's attitude towards it - was distance from the globe's power centres. A complacent sense of everyday security was coupled with an existential fear of abandonment. And just as one distant but powerful patron, imperial Britain, rolled up the map of Asia, Australia found another: the United States. Binding itself to Washington - through a network of alliances, trade arrangements and military service in the Gulf, Vietnam and Afghanistan - was the supreme priority.
Prime Minister Howard Holt declared himself ready to go "all the way with LBJ". Later, John Howard became "deputy sheriff" to President George W. Bush's ten-gallon hat. Addressing a joint session of
But in the 21st century, proximity to the main theatres of global affairs has replaced distance as the key to Australia's outlook. It still takes 12 hours to fly from Melbourne to Beijing - two hours more than from London - but Australia is part of Asia in a way unthinkable a generation ago. Schoolchildren who learnt French in the 1950s, Japanese in the 1980s, now learn Mandarin. There are more than 150,000 Chinese students enrolled on Australian university courses.
And, as Australia's merchandise trade with China has boomed to over A$100 billion (a quarter of Australia's total), divergence between the country's economic and security partnerships has accelerated. For some, the question is whether Australia will be forced to choose between them. For others it is rather how, as a middle power, Australia can best influence others so as to circumvent that choice altogether. Containment, regional balance or cohabitation by design?
In the space of three weeks last year, three events underscored Australia's shifting role.
In October, the country hosted the Commonwealth heads of government meeting, which William Hague, the British Foreign Secretary, calls the "
In November, Australia was wrapped up in what Paul Keating, a former prime minister, called the "kabuki show" of America's Pacific relaunch. Darwin will host 2,500 US Marines. Speaking in Australia's parliament, President Obama said Asia would be unaffected by US draw-downs, underlined support for India as it "looks East", emphasised the systemic superiority of democracy, and set the tone for America's Pacific century, with Australia at its heart, and with China as one Asian power among many. Pointedly he said: "Economic partnerships can't just be about one nation extracting another's resources".
Finally, just before President Obama arrived, Ms Gillard announced a move to overturn a ban on exporting Australia's uranium - the world's largest source - to India, despite India's status as a non-signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. What's good enough for America is good enough for Australia, perhaps. But there is more to it. Although Australians often appear to forget India, Australia is an Indo-Pacific country too - nine hours flight from Perth to Mumbai - and a diversity of allies makes good sense. India's rise, though less quick than China's, may end up being just as important.
Australians are not so cocky as to pull away from old alliances, nor so foolish as to make doubling down on America the lone star of Australian strategy. New-found centrality to global affairs sharpens some dilemmas even as it makes Australia's interests - and the means to secure them - more complicated. Australia's strategic discussion has started, not ended. The rest of the world should take note.
Twitter: @ihavenetnews
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