Mark Naftalin
With all eyes on southern
January's referenda on
Despite numerous postponements, presidential elections are now due to be held in the CAR on
There have been some commendable developments since: elections in 2005, the signing of peace agreements between the government and a number of rebel groups, the launching of a national unity government, economic reforms and the CAR's placement on the agenda of the
With a ragtag army estimated to have between 3,000 and 6,500 men, many who are associated with human rights violations, the CAR is in desperate need of stability around the elections. There has been a lack of recent progress in implementing the peace agreements, small arms can be found throughout the county and there are substantial shortcomings with regard to the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of former combatants. Timber, diamond, uranium, gold and possible oil reserves may lead to large numbers of armed spoilers surrounding any event affecting the country's future governance.
Like Bozizé, President
An Uneasy Rapprochment
The end of December marked the termination of the
Whether the bilateral agreement continues to be maintained and enforced on the ground remains to be seen. Both leaders have previously interfered in the internal affairs of each other's countries and have strong elements within their respective inner circles who favour continued meddling in their neighbour's sovereign space. The current normalisation of relations, although encouraging and of a longer duration than previous agreements, may not last. The risk analysis for each country is pragmatic to the point of being crude: as soon as either party realises that there is greater tactical benefit to be gained from a renewal of proxy war, violence may mirror that seen prior to 2010.
Such a development would not bode well where conflict contagion has previously hampered the region's stability. Insecurity in eastern
The CAR may be regretting
With international attention focussed on
(
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