American Cities Most at Risk of Zika Virus

American Cities Most at Risk of Zika Virus

by Natalie Morin

HeathGrove's research analytics has identified the 50 U.S. cities that would likely be most afflicted with Zika.

A recent poll revealed that Americans don't know much about the Zika virus -- a disease that many South American countries believe is a serious threat. Of the few who have some knowledge of Zika, many don't know if the mosquito-borne illness can be passed on or if it's treatable, according to a survey done by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

This lack of awareness and understanding could potentially pose a problem, as Zika is slowly-but-surely prowling towards the United States. If the virus does penetrate more of the country (346 U.S. cases have already been reported to be brought in from abroad) HeathGrove found the 50 cities that would likely be most afflicted with Zika.

Using data from a recent study in the Public Library of Science (PLOS) HeathGrove considered five factors that would warrant a high risk for a Zika epidemic:

- Counties with recent local Dengue and/or Chikungunya transmission
- Potential abundance of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes (known to carry the virus) in January and July, classified as None, Low, Moderate, or High
- Estimated monthly average arrivals to the U.S. from countries on the CDC Zika travel advisory
- Population

HealthGrove then weighted all of these factors (in the order listed above) to calculate an overall "risk level" of a Zika epidemic in each city, scored out of 10. The city with the highest risk level had the score closest to 10.

When studying the results, the health site found that the biggest risk areas in the United States are in the South and Southeast--particularly Florida and its surrounding states. These warm, humid climates are ideal for mosquitoes to thrive. They also receive many visitors from South and Central America (where many countries plagued with Zika are found) due to their relative proximity.

The risk levels were rounded to the nearest hundredth place, though their ranking reflects each city's unrounded score. In the case of a true tie, the tie goes to the city with a higher population.

50. Midland, TX

Risk level: 1.38

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 161,290

49. Yuma, AZ

Risk level: 1.38

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 203,247

48. Laredo, TX

Risk level: 1.38

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 266,673

47. El Paso, TX

Risk level: 1.41

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 836,698

46. Bakersfield, CA

Risk level: 1.42

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 874,589

45. Albuquerque, NM

Risk level: 1.42

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 904,587

44. Tucson, AZ

Risk level: 1.42

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 1,004,516

43. Salt Lake City, UT

Risk level: 1.43

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 1,153,340

42. Fresno, CA

Risk level: 1.93

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 10,000-500,000
Population: 965,974

41. Las Vegas, NV

Risk level: 1.99

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 10,000-500,000
Population: 2,069,681

40. Sacramento, CA

Risk level: 2

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 10,000-500,000
Population: 2,244,397

39. San Antonio, TX

Risk level: 2.03

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 10,000-500,000
Population: 2,328,652

38. Denver, CO

Risk level: 2.2

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 10,000-500,000
Population: 2,754,258

37. San Diego, CA

Risk level: 2.4

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 10,000-500,000
Population: 3,263,431

36. Phoenix, AZ

Risk level: 2.89

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 10,000-500,000
Population: 4,489,109

35. Montgomery, AL

Risk level: 3.92

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 373,141

34. Huntsville, AL

Risk level: 3.94

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 441,086

33. Shreveport, LA

Risk level: 3.95

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 445,142

32. Fayetteville, AR

Risk level: 3.97

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 501,653

31. Jackson, MS

Risk level: 4

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 577,564

30. Augusta, GA

Risk level: 4

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 583,632

29. Little Rock, AR

Risk level: 4.24

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 729,135

28. Columbia, SC

Risk level: 4.36

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 800,495

27. Birmingham, AL

Risk level: 4.93

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 1,143,772

26. Raleigh, NC

Risk level: 5.09

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 1,242,974

25. Richmond, VA

Risk level: 5.12

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 1,260,029

24. Louisville, KY

Risk level: 5.13

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 1,269,702

23. Oklahoma City, OK

Risk level: 5.25

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 1,336,767

22. Memphis, TN

Risk level: 5.26

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 1,343,230

21. Nashville, TN

Risk level: 6

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 1,792,649

20. Kansas City, MO

Risk level: 6.04

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 2,071,133

19. St. Louis, MO

Risk level: 6.13

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 2,806,207

18. Dallas, TX

Risk level: 7.11

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 500,000-1,000,000
Population: 6,954,330

17. Charlotte, NC

Risk level: 7.38

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 10,000-500,000
Population: 2,380,314

16. Washington, D.C.

Risk level: 7.86

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 10,000-500,000
Population: 6,033,737

15. Philadelphia, PA

Risk level: 7.86

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 10,000-500,000
Population: 6,052,170

14. Los Angeles, CA

Risk level: 7.93

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Low
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 500,000-1,000,000
Population: 13,262,220

13. Savannah, GA

Risk level: 7.99

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: High
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 372,708

12. Tallahassee, FL

Risk level: 7.99

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: High
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 375,751

11. Mobile, AL

Risk level: 8

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: High
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 415,123

10. Charleston, SC

Risk level: 8

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: High
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 727,689

9. New Orleans, LA

Risk level: 8.01

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: High
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 1,251,849

8. Atlanta, GA

Risk level: 8.13

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 500,000-1,000,000
Population: 5,614,323

7. Houston, TX

Risk level: 8.14

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 500,000-1,000,000
Population: 6,490,180

6. Jacksonville, FL

Risk level: 8.38

Mosquito level in January: Low
Mosquito level in July: High
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 1,419,127

5. New York, NY

Risk level: 8.49

Mosquito level in January: None
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 1,000,000-2,000,000
Population: 20,092,883

4. Brownsville, TX

Risk level: 8.86

Mosquito level in January: Low
Mosquito level in July: Moderate
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 420,392

3. Tampa, FL

Risk level: 9.14

Mosquito level in January: Low
Mosquito level in July: High
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: <10,000
Population: 2,915,582

2. Orlando, FL

Risk level: 9.43

Mosquito level in January: Low
Mosquito level in July: High
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 500,000-1,000,000
Population: 2,321,418

1. Miami, FL

Risk level: 10

Mosquito level in January: Moderate
Mosquito level in July: High
Number of people traveling to the U.S. from Zika countries: 1,000,000-2,000,000
Population: 5,929,819

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