NFL 2013 Week 9: Opportunity Knocks: Turnovers Key to Victory

Winning the turnover battle is one of the keys to success in the National Football League.

"It's all about the number of possessions," says NFL Network analyst and former head coach Steve Mariucci about the importance of turnovers. "It's about possession time, clock time and the number of chances to score points. If you give the ball away three times a game, that's three opportunities out of 12 or 13 that you don't have a chance to score. Plus, you're providing the other team with a short field. It's quite evident that if you lose the turnover battle, then you lose a very high percentage of those games."

Statistics show that in the NFL, teams with positive turnover ratios have a significantly higher probability of winning. Over the past five full seasons, clubs with more takeaways than giveaways have a combined 810-220-2 (.786) record.

A breakdown of teams' records within varying degrees of turnover ratio and the total for clubs with a positive differential:

Season +1 +2 +3 or More Total Win Pct.
Source: NFL
200866-2846-1244-8-1156-48-1.763
200964-3149-1451-2164-47.777
201066-2749-1057-3172-40.811
201163-3356-937-1156-43.784
201264-30-143-955-3162-42-1.793
TOTAL323-149-1243-54244-17-1810-220-2.786

 

The trend continues this season as teams with a positive turnover differential have a 72-17 (.809) record.

Season +1 +2 +3 or More Total Win Pct.
Source: NFL
201329-1126-517-172-17.809

 

"Turnovers play a big role in football," says former NFL head coach DICK VERMEIL. "When I was coaching, turnovers were something I would emphasize, emphasize some more, and then keep emphasizing. On the field, in the meeting room, in training camp, in minicamp. All the time. We always stressed the importance of ball security and taking the ball away.

"I used to put up charts detailing the numbers every week. When you stress the importance of turnovers, the players understand. I used to hear players on the sidelines saying ‘Hey, we're +1.' They knew exactly what the turnover differential was. And they knew their chances of winning the game were better."

This season, the Kansas City Chiefs have used a league-best +12 turnover differential (20 takeaways, eight giveaways) to help build an NFL-best 8-0 record.

"Turnovers can be demoralizing to the opposing team, especially when points are scored as a result of them," says Chiefs head coach ANDY REID. "It can be a real momentum swing during the course of the game."

Last year, five of the seven teams with a turnover differential of at least +10 -- New England (+25), Washington (+17), Seattle (+13), Atlanta (+13) and Houston (+12) -- made the playoffs and combined for a 58-22 record (.725).

Those seven teams all finished with a winning record and combined for a 77-35 (.688) mark.

The seven teams with a +10 or better turnover differential in 2012:

Team Takeaways Giveaways Differential Record
Source: NFL *Qualified for playoffs
New England*4116+2512-4
Chicago4424+2010-6
Washington*3114+1710-6
New York Giants3521+149-7
Seattle*3118+1311-5
Atlanta*3118+1313-3
Houston*2917+1212-4
   TOTAL77-35

 

"You win games when you force turnovers on defense," says St. Louis Rams head coach JEFF FISHER. "You never get tired of preaching turnovers, that's one of the key factors in wins and losses."

This season, the top five teams in turnover differential have combined for a 40-13 (.755) record.

Team Takeaways Giveaways Differential Record
Source: NFL
Kansas City208+128-0
Dallas1910+94-4
Seattle2112+97-1
New Orleans157+86-1
Indianapolis136+75-2
New England169+76-2
Chicago1811+74-3
   TOTAL40-13

 

"Forcing a turnover is an impact play," says Carolina Panthers head coach RON RIVERA. "It gets your offense back on the field and it swings momentum."

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NFL 2013 Week 9: Opportunity Knocks: Turnovers Key to Victory