by Fadi Hakura

Turkey seemed to be on course to fulfil its neo-Ottoman ambition and lead the Middle East. But the Arab uprisings, and in particular the Syrian crisis, exposed the limits of Ankara's influence. Turkey zigzagged from counselling President Bashar al-Assad of Syria to enact political reforms to pugnacious diplomacy by fostering the anti-Assad Free Syrian Army and, recently, back to quasi-engagement with pro-Assad Iran and Russia to resolve the Syrian quagmire. It grossly miscalculated Assad's staying power.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is palpably frustrated at the decline of Turkish prestige. His country has essentially reached stalemate, watching helplessly as Syrian Kurdish nationalists carve out an autonomous zone in northern Syrian perilously close to the Kurdish-dominated southeastern Turkey. Accor-ding to an opinion poll of Arabs and Iranians by Tesev, an Istanbul-based think-tank, confidence in Turkey as a positive influence is waning, with 26 per cent of respondents identifying a Sunni bias in Turkish foreign policy

Ankara's inability to manage events is also visible in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Cyprus has not heeded Turkish warnings to cease gas exploration until a Cypriot peace settlement is reached. Israel has refused Turkish demands to apologise for the 2010 flotilla incident, in which an attempt to breach the Israeli naval blockade of Gaza ended in the death of nine Turks. These developments have transformed Foreign Minister Ahmet Davu-toglu's once-celebrated 'zero problems with the neighbours' policy into a 'zero neighbours without problems' reality.

The cause is not difficult to decipher. Ankara jettisoned its role as mediator in favour of crude activism which meant choosing sides. Erdogan mistook popularity on the Arab street for regional influence. He created expectations that simply could not be met.

Was this predictable?

Criticizing Turkey's foreign policy in 2010/2011 was a lonely business.

Yet, one source was prescient: a cable from the US embassy in Ankara published by WikiLeaks described Turkish foreign policy as having 'Rolls-Royce ambitions but Rover resources'. It said: 'The Turks really can't compete on equal terms with either the US or regional 'leaders' -- EU in the Balkans, Russia in the Caucasus/Black Sea, Saudis, Egyptians and even Iranians in the Middle East.'

 

Fadi Hakura, Associate Fellow, Europe, Chatham House

 

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Turkey: Zigzag Diplomacy Leads Nowhere | News of the Middle East