65 years and over: 3%

Life expectancy at birth: 74.3 years

Population in 2050: 58.24m

To know where a nation is headed, look at its youth. Saudi Arabia's population is heavily weighted with young people. Some 64 per cent of its 19.4 million citizens are below the age of 30. A deeper dive into the data shows that 13 to 17- year-olds now make 12 per cent of the population, the biggest 'youth bulge' ever seen in the kingdom.

Next year, the first members of this group will turn 18 and start marching into the country's fast-expanding universities or enter the job market, exacerbating youth unemployment, which for those under 30 stands at 27 per cent, rising to 39.3 per cent for the 20 to 24 age group.

Saudi Arabia is an ultra-conservative country following strict Wahhabi rules of moral and social behaviour. Yet, during three years in the kingdom as a reporter, I found that twentysomething Saudis showed distinctive characteristics.

This group is being shaped by forces beyond the government's control, ranking as No 1 among Arab youth in the use of Twitter and in daily face-time on the internet. This window on the world gives its members new perspectives and makes them more inclined than their parents ever were to re-examine what they are being taught, even when it comes to religion.

They demand more personal autonomy in choosing what they study at university, what career they pursue, what they do in their spare time and whom they marry. Young women want these things with even more fervour than the men and are increasingly assertive about their right to work, study, and engage in public life.

Politically, they all love King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz. There is no appetite, therefore, to overthrow the House of Saud, but they do resent the monopolizing tendencies of the royals in the kingdom's business, political and social life. They are also anxious about the transition when the monarchy passes to the next generation.

Among politically aware young people -- not a majority but a group whose ranks are increasing -- there is resentment over a lack of political rights. But even these youths want change to be gradual.

In sum, Saudi youth are more evolutionary than revolutionary. And yet government can't be complacent.

Political awareness among Saudi youth is likely to grow because of crises and instability in the region. Both secular and Islamist- inclined young Saudis are not immune to the gusts from these conflicts. Young Shiites in the Eastern Province, whom I found alienated from their Sunni peers and the government, will be particularly influenced by regional events.

Sending thousands of students abroad to study will also create challenges for such a conformist society. The King Abdullah Scholarship programme now has 145,000 students studying abroad, half in the US. When they return, they will want well-paid jobs and be keen to implement new ideas in business, technology and even politics.

Finally, as their younger siblings, who make up the 'youth bulge', move into their 20s in coming years, pressure on government for jobs, more affordable housing and political expression will intensify.

The Saudi monarchy has some breathing space. Already, it is opening up jobs for its people by obliging companies to hire fewer expatriates. It is also opening doors for women, allowing them to work in retail and to participate in politics, albeit in a limited way -- King Abdullah recently appointed 30 women to the Shura, his national advisory council. But at the same time, education reform is moving too slowly and, there has been no sign from the royal family that it sees any need to share power or become more accountable.

In Saudi Arabia, age equals authority. But this gerontocracy is not sustainable in the long run. The growing numbers of Saudi youth will demand change in years to come, and along the way, acquire new cultural and political authority.

 

 

 

(c) 2013 Tribune Media Services, Inc., "Saudi Arabia: Cyber-savvy Youth on the Rise"