The danger of making predictions became glaringly apparent in 2011, as easy assumptions about the apathy of Egyptians, the chances for gradual reform in Syria, and the supposed immunity of the Gulf monarchies were all busted. In 2012, humbled analysts have instead written of the persistence of unpredictability, uncertainty, or even chaos.

Policymakers and researchers have been seeking to better understand the structural factors that have underlain the unrest and transitions -- demographic and social changes, globalization and the widening of inequalities, struggles over the distribution of the benefits of economic growth, and the impact of better education and freer information on expectations and ideas -- while also looking at the human choices, moments of inspiration and sheer errors that have determined the precise outcome of these various trends in each specific country.

The human element remains key. The loosening of the grip of the old order is taking place partly because of one of the quintessential human characteristics, mortality.

Within five weeks in the summer, three of the pillars of the 20th century Arab security state system passed away in quick succession.

On June 16, Prince Nayef bin Abdel-Aziz Al Saud, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, who had been the Interior Minister for 37 years, died in a hospital in Geneva.

On July 18, news broke that Assef Shawkat, brother-in-law to Bashar al-Assad, seen as the lynchpin of Syria's security services as well as the Deputy Defence Minister, had been killed along with the Vice-President and Defence Minister in a mysterious explosion in the National Security Headquarters. Whether a foreign assassination or an inside job, it prompted his widow, Bushra, Assad's sister, to flee into exile in Dubai.

The next day, it was announced that Omar Suleiman, Hosni Mubarak's former head of intelligence, had died in a hospital in the United States, aged 76 -- though Elvis-style conspiracy theories that he is really living undercover in US suburbia persist.

In a part of the world where power is heavily concentrated in the hands of a few, health and mortality may continue to bring surprises in the year ahead.

Jane Kinninmont, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

(c) 2012 Tribune Media Services, Inc.