by Sir Tom Phillips
Certainties That Underpin Saudi Arabia Need Reappraisal
From the point of view of a Saudi policy-maker, the country, the region and the world look to be increasingly complex places
What has got into the Saudis? Their unprecedented decision in October not to take up their
Those worrying about what's going on in the Kingdom also raise concerns on the succession front; about the implications of the changing shape of world energy markets at a time when
Certainly, from the point of view of a Saudi policy-maker, the country, the region and the world look to be increasingly complex places.
On the internal front,
In the region, the Saudis used to be able to rely on several factors that maintained stability:
The Saudi world view should not be over-simplified, however.
As Arab uprisings unfurled in
Their domestic response has included social and economic moves easily interpreted as attempts to buy off pressure for political change. But Saudi decision-makers also feel that the West has yet to understand the intricacies of Saudi society, and that reform will take time.
Some traditional critics of the Al Saud inside
Even before the first signs of unrest there was a palpable sense of insecurity among Saudis. The 'Shia Crescent' stretching from
There is much deep history here. But we would be wrong to ignore the extent to which the Saudis are feeling encircled and threatened, as well as their concerns about whether the West, still under the shadow of military adventures in
They worry that Western (
When they try to answer that question, they know that part of the answer has to be more self-reliance, and greater coordination among the six member states of the
So, is it time for some fresh thinking by
Internally, many would argue that, while there is no sign of immediate threat to the Kingdom's stability and the Al Saud's rule, the government nevertheless needs to move forward more boldly on the King's reform programme. If Western-style democracy is not the answer, the Saudis need to come up with a clearer vision about how their own system of consultation and consensus- seeking might evolve to meet the aspirations of a youthful, globally-aware population, and to articulate the extent to which elections will play a part in this.
More needs to be done to modernize the education system and to create a culture in which young Saudis prefer to work in the private sector. The public sector needs reform and energizing. Thought needs to be given to the shape of the current social contract, and to achieving greater transparency. An element of direct personal taxation would generate a political culture in which citizens, rather than subjects, feel they have a right to a certain level of service. The level of subsidies for domestic oil is unsustainable. Consideration also needs to be given to how the balance between the political and religious establishments should evolve so young Saudis do not feel obliged to head to
Externally, it is difficult to avoid the impression that Saudi policy is more re-active than pro-active, however understandable their worries about
Is it not now time for the Saudis to take the lead in setting out a positive vision of how the wider region might look if could resolve its current problems, and above all if
The Saudis also need to start talking to their neighbours about sustainable development, including climate change, environmental degradation and resource shortages, particularly water. The impact of such factors is well known. In
One intriguing feature of current Saudi society is the sense that the debate on all these issues is at last underway, in a more open manner than ever before. It is important for the Kingdom and the region that it comes up with the right answers.
Sir
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"Certainties That Underpin Saudi Arabia Need Reappraisal"