Matt Shoemaker Channels His Inner Greg Maddux

PointAfter examines whether it's time to sell Cole Hamels and celebrates Matt Shoemaker's historic strikeout streak.

Ask any pitching coach in America -- from the high school level all the way up to the big leagues -- and they'll tell you the most important pitch a pitcher can throw is strike one. Though a deeper dive into the numbers shows that's not exactly the case, the larger point remains true: It's important for pitchers to get ahead in the count, and the same can be said for hitters.

In Week 10 of Three Up, Three Down, we'll focus on players whose fantasy value is closely tied to walks. The two pitchers featured this week have seen their control issues trend in opposite directions, while our four hitters have radically different approaches at the plate when it comes to chasing pitches out of the zone.

THREE UP

SP Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels

    Stats June 6 -- 12: 2 GS, 0-1 W-L, 15.2 IP, 11 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 17 K
    Percent owned: 45 percent

It's been a Jekyll and Hyde type of season for Shoemaker. In his first seven starts, the right-hander pitched 29.2 innings with 22 strikeouts, 13 walks and an 8.49 ERA. Since then, he's done his best Clayton Kershaw impersonation, firing 38.1 innings in five starts with 48 strikeouts and just one walk.

Shoemaker's achieved this Zen-like level of control largely by reducing the use of his four-seam fastball -- which batters hit .291 off of this year -- in favor of his splitter, which is also categorized as a changeup. He's used the pitch 38 percent of the time this year, striking out 40 batters and allowing just one walk.

Shoemaker's seventh-inning walk of Carlos Santana in Saturday's game against the Indians snapped a streak of 49 strikeouts without allowing a free pass. That mark tied him with Pedro Martinez for the third-longest in Major League history, trailing only Greg Maddux (53) and Curt Schilling (56). That's some pretty elite company for a guy who sported an ERA of 9.12 as recently as May 11.

That such a radical shift in Shoemaker's performance can seemingly be attributed to a simple change in strategy suggests that the ability was there all along -- it was just one key adjustment away from being unleashed. Opposing hitters will surely make adjustments of their own, and the Bearded One is unlikely to operate at Maddux-ian levels all season long. But this stretch of dominance has gone on too long to be a mere fluke, and owners should scoop him up in a hurry in any leagues he's still available in.

1B Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

    Stats June 6 -- 12: 6-for-22, 1 HR, 7 R, 2 RBI, 4 BB, 1 K
    Percent owned: 20 percent

From 2004 to 2013, Mauer posted a beautiful slash line of .323/.405/.468, with more walks (616) than strikeouts (564). In the two seasons that followed, the catcher-turned-first baseman appeared to be heading swiftly into his twilight years.

Mauer hit just .270/.348/.376 during that time -- sub-par numbers for a fantasy catcher and simply unplayable for a first baseman. He had a career-worst strikeout rate (18.5 percent) in 2014 and posted his lowest walk rate (10.1 percent) in 2015. So far this year, however, he's found a way to reverse those trends.

Unsurprisingly, Mauer has rediscovered his on-base skills by chasing pitches outside the zone less often. He's actually become more patient in general, swinging at fewer than half of the pitches he sees inside the strike zone. The result has been a robust .281/.388/.412 line for the year, not mind-blowing but certainly serviceable from a fantasy perspective.

The Twins have been an ungodly mess this year, but Mauer has been one of the few bright spots. He's on pace for 18 home runs and is worthy of an everyday roster spot in deeper leagues. For any owners searching for an injury replacement at the position, you could do a lot worse than the three-time batting champion.

OF Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins

    Stats June 6 -- 12: 6-for-25, 3 XBH, 3 R, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K
    Percent owned: 89 percent

Though he's only 24 years old, it seems as though the toolsy Yelich has teased fantasy owners as a breakout candidate for some time. Thanks to some added plate discipline, that breakout season appears to finally be happening.

Yelich's walk rate of 12.3 percent represents a significant jump from last year's mark of 9 percent. He's drastically decreased his rate of chasing outside pitches, and this refined approach has led to better contact when he actually does decide to swing -- Yelich's hard-hit rate of 37 percent is the highest of his career.

With better contact comes more power, and Yelich's isolated power mark of .182 represents a career best. What's more encouraging about his new approach is that he's hit for more power while actually striking out less often.

If there's one downside to Yelich's season from a fantasy perspective, it's that he's currently on pace for a career-worst eight stolen bases, this after swiping 21 bags in 2014 and 16 last season. Given how well he's performed at the plate, this lack of steals combined with Yelich's boost in power and on-base skills is a tradeoff owners will gladly take.

THREE DOWN

OF Matt Kemp, San Diego Padres

    Stats June 6 -- 12: 9-for-24, 0 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, 0 BB, 6 K
    Percent owned: 94 percent

Behold -- the King of Swinging Away. No player has swung at pitches out of the zone at a higher rate than Kemp has in 2016, representing a far cry from the player who ranked in the top 10 in the National League in walks just five years ago.

Clearly, Kemp is nowhere near the star he once was, but who could have predicted his fall would be this dramatic? The two-time All-Star who's due $86 million through the 2019 season -- $14 million of which will be paid by the Dodgers -- has walked just four times in 262 plate appearances this season, tanking his on-base percentage to a career-worst .256.

Though Kemp is on pace for 35 home runs this year, his proclivity for making outs greatly diminishes his fantasy impact. He walks so infrequently he sometimes forgets how many balls actually result in a free base, and we can't really blame him considering how the season has played out.

Owners should try to ship him to a roster in need of a power boost, otherwise be prepared to surround him in their lineup with high-average and on-base hitters. The home run and RBI totals make him too valuable to simply cut, but he's been among the year's biggest disappointments so far.

2B Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers

    Stats June 6 -- 12: 7-for-31, 3 HR, 3 R, 5 RBI, 0 BB, 11 K
    Percent owned: 94 percent

There are circumstances in which Odor's lack of on-base skills aren't a big deal. The fiery second baseman is on pace for 26 home runs and 15 stolen bases, and his low batting average and OBP wouldn't be an issue on a fantasy roster with other high-average guys around him.

In a vacuum, however, Odor's been a bit of a disappointment so far. His walk rate of 2.6 percent is among the lowest in the league, and he sees fewer pitches per plate appearance than almost every other hitter. Perhaps more concerning is the fact that Odor has become less patient as the year has gone on.

Odor struck out 16 times with five walks in April. In May and June, he's walked just one time in 137 plate appearances with 24 strikeouts. Odor has plenty of pop at a power-starved position, but until he develops a more refined approach, his fantasy and real-world value will be limited.

He's still extremely young, and his home run potential alone makes him a fantasy asset, so owners should stand pat and just be thankful his power and speed are still big parts of his repertoire.

SP Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers

    Stats June 6 -- 12: 2 GS, 1-0 W-L, 14.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 HR, 6 BB, 9 K
    Percent owned: 97 percent

Hamels actually put together a solid week, but his underlying numbers have been subpar all season long. No qualified pitcher has a larger gap between their fielding independent pitching and earned run average, suggesting he's been the beneficiary of some good fortune.

It's easy to see why Hamels' FIP is so high. His walk rate of 3.47 per nine innings is the highest of his career, and his control issues have led to an increase in hard contact allowed. Further, Hamels has given up 15 home runs this year, tied for fourth-most in the league.

On the surface, Hamels' 3.14 ERA and 6-1 record look worthy of an ace, but the advanced stats indicate he's not actually this good. Now feels like a great time for owners to sell high before the lefty's luck catches up with him.

MORE: Is It Time to Start Worrying About David Price?

 

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