Russian Influence Wanes in Southeast Asia

by Joshua Kurlantzick

Putin's and Russia's influence in Southeast Asia is drastically waning.

As President Vladimir Putin has increasingly tried to project Russian power around the globe in recent years, one of the areas it has focused on has been Southeast Asia. While Russia's attempted influence in the region attracted less attention than its influence in Africa or Eastern Europe, Moscow had quietly become a much bigger military and diplomatic presence in Southeast Asia.

Now, however, that influence seems to be dramatically fading, cutting Moscow out of a critical region of the globe.

As Russia under Putin has increasingly tried to project power around the globe, one of the areas it has focused on has been Southeast Asia. While Moscow's attempts at expanding its influence in the region attracted less attention than its efforts in Africa or Eastern Europe, Russia had quietly boosted its military ties and diplomatic engagement in Southeast Asia. Now, however, that influence seems to be dramatically fading, largely cutting Moscow out of a critical region in global politics.

Moscow had not been a player in Africa for decades after the Cold War, but via the Wagner Group as well as the Russian military, it has recently involved itself deeply in a range of African states. According to the Brookings Institution, Moscow signed 19 military cooperation agreements with African governments between 2015 and 2019. The Tony Blair Institute further notes that "Russia has deployed private military contractors in at least 21 countries since 2014, with the majority on the African continent." Russia has used the Wagner Group to support a range of anti-democratic figures in Africa, including Gen. Khalifa Haftar in Libya and Col. Assimi Goita's military junta in Mali, and it is now cozying up to new military regimes in Niger and Gabon. Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, the Kremlin has also tried to foment coups in Montenegro and Moldova, while seeking to destabilize the entire region through influence operations and disinformation, to say nothing of the war in Ukraine.

Similarly, Moscow had not played a major role in Southeast Asia since the Vietnam War era, but in recent decades countries in the region had increasingly turned to Russia for cheap and reliable arms. In fact, the Stockholm Peace Research Institute noted that Russia had sold about 30 percent of all the weapons purchased by Southeast Asian between 2010 and 2019, often using flexible funding arrangements, including barter.

Russia's influence in Southeast Asia appears to be fading. While Russia had previously focused on expanding its military ties and diplomatic engagement in the region, its influence now seems to be dramatically declining.

However, Russia's closest partners in Southeast Asia, including Myanmar, Vietnam, and Laos, still rely on Russian military hardware and receive rhetorical support from Moscow.

Russia has also been a significant arms supplier for some of the region's militaries, with the Stockholm Peace Research Institute reporting that Russia sold nearly 30 percent of all weapons to Southeast Asian states last decade.

Additionally, Russia has worked closely with President Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines and has considered joint energy development projects in the South China Sea.

Overall, while Russia's influence in Southeast Asia has declined in recent years, it still maintains some ties with certain countries in the region. However, Russia's focus on relations with the West and its growing strategic partnership with China suggest that its interests in Southeast Asia may be of less importance in the future.

Courtesy Courtesy Council on Foreign Relations.