AFC Championship Preview - Jaguars vs Patriots
AFC Championship Preview - Jaguars vs Patriots

The final four teams are set and this Sunday will determine the two teams heading to Minnesota for Super Bowl LII. Championship Sunday begins with the AFC title game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots.

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​Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)

(Sunday, CBS, 3:05 PM ET)

The New England Patriots extended their streak to seven straight AFC Championship Games with a 35-14 win against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Divisional round. It is the 14th AFC Championship game in Patriots' history. The Patriots host the AFC Championship Game for the eighth time and for the fifth time in the last seven years this Sunday when they play the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars defeated the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 45-42, in their AFC Divisional round matchup. Sunday's game marks the Jaguars' third appearance in the AFC Championship game in their 23-season history and their first since the 1999 season (2017, 1999, 1996).

Against the Titans, Brady passed for 337 yards and three touchdowns. Patriots running back James White scored two touchdowns -- one rushing, one receiving. New England tight end Rob Gronkowski had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown.

Against the Steelers, Jacksonville rookie running back Leonard Fournette rushed for 109 yards and three touchdowns, becoming the youngest player (22 years, 361 days old) in the Super Bowl era to rush for at least 100 yards and three touchdowns in a playoff game. Jaguars linebacker Telvin Smith scored on a 50-yard fumble-return touchdown. Smith leads the NFL with three defensive touchdowns this season (including the playoffs). The Jaguars led the NFL with seven defensive touchdowns during the regular season.

The Patriots and Jaguars meet in the postseason for the fifth time. New England has won three of the previous four meetings, including the 1996 AFC Championship Game which the Patriots won 20-6. In the team's last postseason meeting, New England knocked off Jacksonville 31-20 in the 2007 AFC Divisional Playoffs (January 12, 2008).

New England has won 10 of the 11 games between the two teams including the postseason. The teams last played in Week 3, 2015 (September 27) with the Patriots winning 51-17. The Jaguars are seeking their first win over the Patriots in a regular season or postseason game since defeating New England in an AFC Wild Card matchup on Jan. 3, 1999.

The Jaguars are looking to become the second AFC team in the last decade that was seeded third or lower in the postseason to defeat both the No. 1 and No. 2 AFC seeds on the road to advance to the Super Bowl. This season, the (3) Jaguars defeated the (2) Steelers in Pittsburgh in the AFC Divisional round and face the (1) Patriots in the AFC Championship game in Foxborough. In 2012, the (4) Ravens defeated the (1) Broncos in Denver in the AFC Divisional round and then the (2) Patriots in the AFC Championship game in Foxborough. The Ravens went on to beat the San Francisco 49ers, 34-31, in Super Bowl XLVII.

New England has advanced to its seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game and are the first team since the 1970 merger to play in seven Conference Championship Games in a row. The Patriots have won nine AFC Championship Games, the most in NFL history. New England is 6-1 all-time in AFC Championship Games played at home. The Jaguars have advanced to the AFC Championship Game for the third time in franchise history. Jacksonville previously played in the AFC Championship Game in 1999 (January 23, 2000 against Tennessee) and 1996 (January 12, 1997 against New England). Jacksonville is the second team since the 1970 merger to advance to the Conference Championship Game after winning three or fewer games in the previous season (2006 New Orleans).

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady have now won 26 postseason games together, the most in NFL history by a head coach and starting quarterback combination. Belichick has advanced to 12 Conference Championship Games, the most by a head coach since the 1970 merger. Brady has 26 career playoff wins, the most by any starting quarterback in NFL history. Brady is also the NFL postseason leader in career completions (866), attempts (1,378), passing yards (9,431) and touchdown passes (66).

​Prediction: AFC Championship - Jaguars vs Patriots

It's nearly impossible and almost unthinkable to pick the Jaguars over the Patriots, Belichick and Brady especially on the road in Foxborough. However, the thought of a Jaguars upset over the Patriots is within the realm of reality. After all, the Jaguars are strong, if not formidable, on the defensive side of the ball and possess a running game -- led by Fournette -- powerful enough to exploit the Patriots biggest weakness on defense.

However, this is the Patriots in the AFC Conference Championship Game at home. In AFC Championship games at home the Patriots are 6-1. For the Jaguars to win, Bortles would need to play near-perfect at quarterback while the defense and Fournette do their part.

It will be a close game, but in the end it will be the Patriots advancing to Super Bowl XII.

Prediction: Patriots 17 Jaguars 10

Jaguar Notes

AFC Championship Preview - Jaguars vs Patriots

QB Blake Bortles had pass TD last week. In last meeting, Bortles passed for 242 yards & 2 TDs. Passed for 3,687 yards & has 3,500+ pass yards in each of past 3 seasons. Bortles has 14,928 passing yards since entering the NFL in 2014, 4th most in NFL history by player in 1st 4 seasons.

RB Leonard Fournette rushed for 109 yards & 3 TDs last week & is only rookie in NFL history with 100+ rush yards & 3+ rush TDs in postseason game. Fournette led all rookies with 9 rush TDs & ranked 2nd with 1,040 rush yards. Fournette is 1 of 2 rookies in Jaguars franchise history (Fred Taylor) with 1,000+ rush yards. RB T.J. Yeldon had 77 scrimmage yards (57 rec., 20 rush) & rush TD last week.

WR Marqise Lee led team with 56 receptions. WR Keelan Cole ranked 4th among NFL rookies with 748 rec. yards. Had 17.8 rec. yard avg., highest among rookies (min. 25 catches). WR Allen Hurns had 59-yard TD catch in last meeting. Rookie WR-PR Jaydon Mickens was 1 of 3 NFL players with 10+ yard PR avg. (10.3) & PR-TD (1) in 2017 (min. 10 PR).

LB Telvin Smith tied career-high with 16 tackles & had FR-TD last week. Has 27 tackles, FF & FR in 2 career playoff games. Was 1 of 3 NFL LBs with 100+ tackles (102) & 3+ INTs (3). DE Calais Campbell led the AFC this season with a franchise-record & career-high 14.5 sacks. DE Yannick Ngakoue was 1 of 2 NFL players (Aaron Donald) with 10+ sacks (12) & 5+ FFs (6). LB Myles Jack has sack, INT & 3 PD in his 1st 2 playoff games. CB A.J. Bouye has 2 INTs, FF & 7 PD in his past 4 postseason games.

Patiots Notes

AFC Championship Preview - Jaguars vs Patriots

QB Tom Brady is all-time postseason leader in career attempts (1,378), completions (866), passing yards (9,431) & TD Passes (66). Brady has 13 career 300+ pass yard games in playoffs, most in NFL history. Brady is 26-9 (.743) as starter in the postseason, most wins by a quarterback in NFL hisotry. Brady led the NFL with 4,577 pass yards & is ranked 1st in AFC with 32 TD passes, both most by QB at age 40 or older. Is making 12th career AFC Conference Championship game appearance. In his last game against the Jaguars, Brady completed 33 of 42 (78.6 pct.) for 358 yards with 2 TDs vs. 0 INTs for 118.1 yards. Brady aims for 3rd postseason meeting in row with 3 TDs, 0 INTs & 110+ rating.

RB Dion Lewis led the Patriots with career-high 896 rushing yards. Had 141 scrimmage yards (79 rec., 62 rush) in AFC Divisional playoff game. Lewis has 507 scrimmage yards (126.8 per game) with 5 TDs (3 rush, 2 rec.) in past 4 games (including playoffs). Had rush TD in last meeting. RB James White has 179 scrimmage yards (89.5 per game) & 5 TDs (3 rush, 2 rec.) in past 2 postseason games. Since 2015, has 15 TD catches (incl. playoffs), most among NFL running backs.

TE Rob Gronkowski led all NFL TEs with 1,084 receiving yards, his 4th career 1,000+ yard season -- tied with Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten for most among tight ends in NFL history. In past 6 postseason games, has 512 receiving yards (85.3 per game) & 7 TDs. Gronkowski aims for 7th playoff game in row with TD catch. WR Danny Amendola has 190 receiving yards (95 per game) & TD catch in past 2 playoff games.

DE TREY FLOWERS had sack last week. Has 3.5 sacks in past 2 postseason games. LB JAMES HARRISON has 11 career sacks in postseason, tied for 5th most in NFL history.

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