NFL 2009 Week 4: Picks & Selections

Benjamin Lee Eckstein

49ers-x (-9.5) over Rams

Lousy is as lousy does. That was either Forrest Gump or Vince Lombardi, we're still checking, but leaning to Gump.

Okay, start with the lousy.

St. Louis is now the PROUD owner of the longest losing streak in the NFL with 13 and counting. The Rams are 5-30 since the start of 2007, and inside the NFC West, they are on a sweet 0-9 run, and losing by an average of 17+ points per game.

Before we go too far toward the dark side, here are some very solid, very profitable numbers, courtesy of San Francisco.

The first number, and the MOST important is, 3-0 against the spread so far this season (and we've been on the gravy train since week one, last week as a BEST BET). And speaking of best, the Niners have THE BEST run defense in the NFC, allowing just 66.7 ypg, and that's coming off a look-see at the phenomenal Adrian Peterson. Like last week, we're BEST BETTING the 49ers one more time.

Bengals (-5.5) over Browns-x

Second verse, same as the first. No, I'm not singing the chorus from the Herman's Hermits famous song "I'm Henry the Eighth, I Am," but rather talking once again about a pathetic team.

Meet Cleveland.

Head coach Eric Mangini is replacing Brady Quinn with Derek Anderson. Big freakin' deal. When Anderson took over in the second half of last week's game, he was 11 of 19 for just 92 yards, with THREE interceptions.

The Brownies are on an 0-9 run, both straight up and against the spread, and in those nine games, they have scored a mind-boggling 60 points.

Even without my calculator, it's easy to tell that the Browns offense basically sucks.

Cincy has covered five of the last six (that's 83% according the laws of division), and without a fluke interception against Denver that resulted in a late TD, the Bengals would be 3-0. Holy Marvin Lewis!

Patriots-x (-2) over Ravens

Has life not looked just a LITTLE too easy for Baltimore at 3-0.

Sure it has because the Ravens have played Kansas City, San Diego (without LaDainian Tomlinson) and Cleveland.

Of course Baltimore mauled the two teams that are a combined 0-6 (38-24 over KC, and 34-3 over Cleveland), but struggled with San Diego (31-26).

Now they have to fight a New England team that is 10-2 against the spread at home when favored by two points or less.

Gimme Brady.

Broncos-x (+3) over Cowboys

After the storm that surrounded new head man Josh McDaniels and Jay Cutler blew out of town (Cutler now works for the Bears), Denver has rocked the party with a spotless 3-0 record.

The Broncos are not a home dog too often in the Mile High city, but have covered three of four this decade.

Then there's Tony Romo. Still don't trust him with my money, but do trust a Denver defense that allowed ONLY 16 points (5.3 ppg) so far this season.

Chargers (+6.5) over Steelers-x

From now until he and his HAIR return, we are playing against Pittsburgh without Troy Polamalu.

Like we said last week, when you lose an All-Pro player, teams will tend to exploit it. And this time, Philip Rivers gets his shot. Carson Palmer was 20 of 37 for 183 yards, and San Diego has a much better air attack.

Actually, the second best in the NFL at 315 ypg, just behind Peyton Manning and the Colts.

Titans (-3) over Jaguars-x

Can Tennessee possibly open up this season at 0-4 after winning 10 in a row to start the 2008 campaign? Don't think so. Why?

Jax has covered ONLY one of its last nine at home.

Packers (+3.5) over Vikings-x (Mon)

You've got serious VENOM dripping from both sides of the field, but the money is dripping off the underdogs.

In Minny, dogs have covered a hugely successful 11 of the last 14, with the Pack on nice 4-0 run as a bow-wow.

Texans-x (-9) over Raiders

Houston has the firepower, and a nice little 7-3 spread run working.

Chiefs-x (+9) over Giants

Maybe, just maybe, New York is looking ahead to that CRITICAL game with the Raiders next week. Stay light.

Lions (+10.5) over Bears-x

Why not. Detroit finally WON a game and has covered 11 of the last 13 as a double digit dog.

Bucs (+7.5) over Redskins-x

Washington has covered ONLY one of its last 11 games, so we AIN'T laying a TD and a hook.

Seahawks (+10.5) over Colts-x

Indy has covered only two of the last 10 as a double digit favorite, so we'll take a tiny bite of Seattle.

Saints-x (-7) over Jets

If Rex Ryan and the defense pass this test, they are for REAL. Until then, it's New Orleans on my ticket.

Dolphins-x (+2) over Bills

Anything's possible, but Miami at 0-4 just doesn't sound right. Tap the Fish, but just with a feather.

Cards-x (-2.5) over Colts

Indy has covered only four of the last 18 as a favorite, so'Zona is the side.

Panthers (+9) over Cowboys-x

This series has gone to the dogs, with the underdog covering seven of the last nine.

x-home team

Last week: 7-9

Season record: 24-24

 

2009 NFL WEEK 4 LATEST LINE

 

NFL 2009 Week 4 Schedule

(All times local)

Detroit at Chicago, 12:00 PM

Buffalo at Miami, 4:05 PM

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 PM

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans, 3:05 PM

Oakland at Houston, 12:00 PM

Dallas at Denver, 2:15 PM

Seattle at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM

St. Louis at San Francisco, 1:15 PM

Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM

San Diego at Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM (NBC)

N.Y. Giants at Kansas City, 12:00 PM

Baltimore at New England, 1:00 PM

Tampa Bay at Washington, 1:00 PM

Green Bay at Minnesota, 7:30 PM (ESPN)

Bye Week: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia

 

NFL 2009 Week 3 Results

(Home Team in CAPS)

BALTIMORE 34, Cleveland 3

New Orleans 27, BUFFALO 7

DETROIT 19, Washington 14

Chicago 25, SEATTLE 19

Jacksonville 31, HOUSTON 24

CINCINNATI 23, Pittsburgh 20

MINNESOTA 27, San Francisco 24

Denver 23, OAKLAND 3

NEW ENGLAND 26, Atlanta 10

SAN DIEGO 23, Miami 13

N.Y. JETS 24, Tennessee 17

Indianapolis 31, ARIZONA 10

PHILADELPHIA 34, Kansas City 14

Green Bay 36, ST. LOUIS 17

N.Y. Giants 24, TAMPA BAY 0

DALLAS 21, Carolina 7

 

 

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