NFL 2009 Week 3: Picks & Selections

Benjamin Lee Eckstein

Chiefs (+9) over Eagles-x

What me worry? Hell ya. Donovan with the ribs. Westbrook with the ankle. And now, DeSean with the groin. With the Eagles version of the old Cowboy triplets (Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin) all in various states of disrepair, it's impossible to look at the hometown heroes. Not at plus nine. We do know that Kansas City AIN'T New Orleans, and Matt Cassel AIN'T Drew Brees, but the Chiefs usually handle the underdog role very well, covering 11 of the last 17. Then there's some research we did on the bye week stats. The Birds are off next week, and here are some very, very interesting numbers. In games before the bye week, the Eagles are just 3-7 straight up and only 2-7-1 against the spread. Want better? Got it. Underdogs have covered 12 of the last 14 with one push in Philly the last 15 years. How about the Birds, but barely, 24-20.

49ers (+7) over Vikings-x

Both teams come into this contest at 2-0, but they are VERY different 2-0's. San Francisco beat Arizona and Seattle. Combined record last year: 16-20. Minnesota beat Cleveland and Detroit. Combined record last year: 4-28. You can't compare QB's. Brett Favre is a few years away from the Hall of Fame, while Shaun Hill is just a baby. However, Hill hit on 19 of 26 last week, and 22 of 27 in the opener. Not bad numbers for a baby. Turn to running back where you have Adrian Peterson, maybe the greatest back in NFL history when he's done, matching up against Frank Gore. Despite Gore's ridiculous 207 yard effort last week, we still favor AP. So where's the edge? It's in the "Eyes." Mike Singletary's 49ers have now covered six of the last seven. And the Niners run defense, is allowing a very stingy 53 yards per game, which, it just so happens, leads the NFC. This is your BEST BET BABY!

Texans-x (-3.5) over Jaguars

This is a great matchup for Houston because Jacksonville is just NOT a good team. The Jaguars are 0-2 this season, have dropped eight of their last nine, and have no clue when they travel to Texas. Over the last seven years, the Texans are 6-1 at home against the Jags, and 5-2 against the spread. One final nugget; Jax has covered only two of the last 14 when they play on a grass surface.

Ravens-x (-13) over Browns

If you think this big FAT double digit spread is gonna help Cleveland, think again. The Browns, as a double digit dog, are 0-6 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Their total offensive output in the last eight games has been 63 points, or an average of 7.8 per. But the best numbers on the board are the Brownies 0-8 spread run and the Ravens recent ridiculous 13-3 record against the spot.

Bengals-x (+4) over Steelers

Pittsburgh has had its way in this AFC North rivalry, but that could change Sunday. The Steelers look NOTHING like the team that won the Super Bowl. They are 1-1, and have scored a grand total of 27 points in those games. The biggest problem is obvious, no Troy Polamalu. When you lose an All-Pro player, teams will tend to exploit it. And Carson Palmer, who missed both games against Pittsburgh last season, will find the key.

Patriots-x (-4) over Falcons

Just found out that WR Wes Welker, Tom Brady's LIFELINE, has been upgraded to probable. Without Welker, the offense struggles. With Welker, it opens up Randy Moss, and New England strolls into the winner's circle.

Bills-x (+6) over Saints

Dick Jauron is a defensive specialist, and will need all his tools to keep Drew Brees and the Saints in check. How about this tool. Under Jauron, Buffalo has covered 15 of the last 18 against non-conference teams.

Jets-x (-2.5) over Titans

New Yorkers have a perfect 3-0 spread record against Tennessee since 2006.

Bucs-x (+7) over Giants

All the key trends point to New York, but we'll tap Tampa, lightly.

Lions-x (+6.5) over Redskins

As a human who can't stand the suffering, we're gonna drop a tiny bit of green on Detroit.

Rams-x (+6.5) over Packers

With the buzz game of the year against Brett Favre and Minny coming up next, no way the Pack will be interested in St. Louis.

Seahawks-x (+2) over Bears

Seattle has covered 12 of the last 17 at home, so we'll give the'Hawks a whirl.

Dolphins (+6) over Chargers-x

Last 10 years, Miami is 6-0 against the Chargers, with a 6-0 mark to the under. Miami & under. Book it.

Broncos (-1.5) over Raiders-x

Just can NOT get behind JaMarcus Russell and his pathetic numbers (7/24 for 109 yards last week).

Cards-x (-2.5) over Colts

Indy has covered only four of the last 18 as a favorite, so'Zona is the side.

Panthers (+9) over Cowboys-x (Mon)

This series has gone to the dogs, with the underdog covering seven of the last nine.

x-home team

Last week: 9-7

Season record: 17-15

2009 NFL WEEK 3 LATEST LINE

 

NFL 2009 Week 3 Schedule

(All times local)

 

Sunday, September 27

Cleveland at Baltimore, 1:00 PM

New Orleans at Buffalo, 4:05 PM

Washington at Detroit, 1:00 PM

Chicago at Seattle, 1:05 PM

Jacksonville at Houston, 12:00 PM

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 4:15 PM

San Francisco at Minnesota, 12:00 PM

Denver at Oakland, 1:15 PM

Atlanta at New England, 1:00 PM

Miami at San Diego, 1:15 PM

Tennessee at N.Y. Jets, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis at Arizona, 5:20 PM (NBC)

Kansas City at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM

Green Bay at St. Louis, 12:00 PM

N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM

 

Monday, September 28

Carolina at Dallas, 7:30 PM (ESPN)

 

NFL 2009 Week 2 Results

(Home Team in CAPS)

 

ATLANTA 28, Carolina 20

BUFFALO 33, Tampa Bay 20

Minnesota 27, DETROIT 13

SAN FRANCISCO 23, Seattle 10

Cincinnati 31, GREEN BAY 24

CHICAGO 17, Pittsburgh 14

Arizona 31, JACKSONVILLE 17

DENVER 27, Cleveland 6

Oakland 13, KANSAS CITY 10

Baltimore 31, SAN DIEGO 26

N.Y. JETS 16, New England 9

N.Y. Giants 33, DALLAS 31

New Orleans 48, PHILADELPHIA 22

Houston 34, TENNESSEE 31

WASHINGTON 9, St. Louis 7

Indianapolis 27, MIAMI 23

 

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NFL 2009 Week 2 - Selections & Latest Line