NFL 2009 Week 10: Picks & Selections

Benjamin Lee Eckstein

Eagles (+1.5) over Chargers-x

Just missed the NFC East hat trick last week, losing to Dallas 20-16. But there are a number of positives to take away. Like the defense which looks even tighter than last season's edition. Throw out the game against New Orleans, a 48 point brain freeze, and the Birds have allowed an average of 15 points per game. No one, except, the Cowboys are doing it better in the NFC. Lets turn to the road statistics, and they are very sweet. With the exception of that ugly 2005 season (6-10), the Eagles have shown a profit on the road every year, even in Andy's first season, 1999, when the Birds posted a 5-11 straight up record, but covered five of eight road games. They have covered two of three away from home so far this season, and have won five of the last six (83%) coming off a home loss. Not a best bet, but we like the Birds to fly back home with a 23-19 victory.

Cowboys (-3) over Packers-x

Love the work that Dallas has done after the bye week. The Cowboys beat Atlanta (37-21) and Seattle (38-17), both at home, and then of course, squeezed past the Birds 20-16 last week. They have won three of four on the road, and appear to be on track for a playoff slot after missing out last season. Green Bay doesn't appear to be on track for anything other than some golf in the Bahamas. The Packers have given up 76 points the last two times out, and DO NOT have a victory against a team with a winning record. Now they have to deal with a Dallas team that holds a humungous 11-2 edge the last 13 times out in this matchup. The Boys have covered eight of the last 10 against the Pack, and since Green Bay is swiss cheese up front (six sacks allowed against Tampa Bay and six sacks against Minnesota), we're gonna drop the BEST BET hammer on Dallas.

Titans-x (-6.5) over Bills

Last week, we picked Tennessee and talked about the energy that Vince Young has injected into the team. Two starts, two wins. A 30-13 victory over the Jaguars, and a nice 34-27 road win at San Francisco. With a chance for three in a row, the Titans will keep their foot on the pedal. And since Buffalo has won only five of its last 18 games, and covered just two of the last six, we'll rock the blue unis from Nashville.

Patriots (+3) over Colts-x

Since the Peyton Manning/Tom Brady matchup is virtually a wash, we'll have to go the numbers. And BOY, do they favor New England. Looking back over the history in this matchup, the Pats have covered an incredible 15 of the last 17 on the road against Indy. Kinda impossible to buck that stat, or, the one that says the Horseshoes have covered ONLY five of the last 17 games at home.

Ravens (-10.5) over Browns-x (Mon)

We know that Baltimore is gonna win because Cleveland has just two wins in its last 15 games. And guess what? Yup, both were on the road. That makes the Brownies 0 for the last 8 in Cleveland. Even with the loss last week, the Ravens have covered a very healthy 16 of the last 22. And the last three times out against the Browns, the average winning margin was 19.5 points per game, certainly more than enough to cover this spread.

Bengals (+7) over Steelers-x

Cincinnati is on a rocking 8-3 spread run, has already taken Pittsburgh down once this season (23-20 at home), and should have NO trouble covering this VERY generous seven point spread.

Chiefs (+2) over Raiders-x

We were going to leave this game in the garbage, where it belongs, but after looking at Kaycee's impressive 14 covers in the last 21 games on the road, we have to pop a light wager on the Chiefs.

Jaguars (+7) over Jets-x

Since the New Yorkers have covered only one of the last five, we'll grab the TD with Jax.

Broncos (-3.5) over Redskins-x

Washington has just one win at home in the last 10 straight up, and has covered only one of the last nine.

Vikings-x (-16.5) over Lions

Minny has won 14 of the last 15 against Detroit, and now the Vikes just need to cover double digits.

Saints (-13.5) over Rams-x

New Orleans working on a road perfecto against the spread with a 6-0-1 record.

Panthers-x (+1.5) over Falcons

Not a very strong feel, so just come to the party with "Monopoly Money."

Dolphins-x (-10) over Bucs

Tampa got its win for the year, so we're gonna swim with the Fish.

Cards-x (-8) over Seahawks

Seattle is not the team you wanna back on the road since the'Hawks have covered only one of the last six.

 

x-home team

Last week: 8-5

Season record: 68-60-1

 

NFL 2009 Week 10 - Selections & Latest Line