NFL 2009 Week 1: Picks & Selections

Benjamin Lee Eckstein

x = home team

Panthers-x (+2.5) over Eagles

Finally, the games begin, and we can talk about something other than Michael Vick. Like the fact that the supremely talented Brian Westbrook has not played a down in pre-season. Does that scare you? It sure makes me a little nervous. The fact that the O-line has not played one down together.

Does that scare you? Makes me a little nervous. The fact that MLB Stewart Bradley is gone for the year. The fact that the Birds are playing a team that ain't chopped liver. Carolina posted an 11-5 mark last season before losing in the first round of the playoffs. This ain't Detroit or Oakland we're talking about. While the Eagles have been profitable overall on the road, they have covered only two of the last five as a road favorite. And since the Panthers have won 10 of their last 11 at home, we'll tick everyone in town off, and take a small shot with the home team.

Carolina 27-24.

Patriots-x (-10.5) over Bills

At this point, with THAT wife, and three Super Bowl rings, Tom Brady really doesn't need to make a statement, but he WILL. And it should be VERY loud.

After sitting out last season, Brady is ready to rumble. He leads a New England team that has a ridiculous 46-9 record at home over the last six seasons, and is pure perfection, 11-0, against Buffalo since 2003. Dick Jauron, or Mr. 7-9 as we fondly call out here in Vegas, seems to be a nice enough guy, but he just does not have the talent to compete at the Pats level. Once this game turns into a blowout, probably in the middle of the second quarter, most of the chatter will turn to T.O.'s reality show, appropriately titled "The T.O. Show." After looking at an offense that could not score ONE stinkin' TD in the pre-season, the ONLY bright spot for Buffalo this year is, T.O. has been picked up for a second season by VH1. BEST BET BABY!

Ravens-x (-13) over Chiefs

This looks like a mismatch on paper, and it WILL be a mismatch on the field as well. Baltimore finally has an offensive threat, Joe Flacco, to go with a punishing defense. That's why the Ravens covered 14 of 19 last season and six of eight at home.

After losing an astonishing 23 of the last 25 games, there's really no place for Kansas City to go but up. Unfortunately, it AIN'T gonna happen this week.

49ers (+6.5) over Cards-x

San Francisco fired coach Mike Nolan after seven games and a 2-5 record. The Niners brought in Mike "Eyes" Singletary and proceeded to win five of the next nine games. Not bad. The 49ers faced Arizona twice last season, losing at Arizona in the opener, 23-13 (with Nolan, failed to cover as a 2.5 point underdog), and then losing at home, 29-24 (with Singletary, covered as a 10 point dog).

This dog is gonna bark all the way to the bank.

Redskins (+6.5) over Giants-x

Anytime we find 6.5 points with the number four defense in the NFL (Washington's rank last season, WITHOUT Albert Haynesworth), it's worth a nibble. QB Jason Campbell needs to improve, but with Clinton Portis (tied for most 1st downs with 86) carrying the mail, the picture starts to brighten.

The Big Blue still has Eli Manning at the controls, but with no Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, or David Tyree gobbling up receptions, points will be scarce.

Jaguars (+7) over Colts-x

No Tony Dungy, no Marvin Harrison, and a recent history of VERY tight games. The last three have seen Indy by three (28-25), Jax by 2 (23-21) and Indy by 7 (31-24). Horseshoes squeeze past the Jags with a late field goal.

Chargers (-9.5) over Raiders-x

Always expect big things from San Diego with LaDainian Tomlinson and Phillip Rivers. NEVER expect big things from an Oakland team that has covered only eight of the last 33 at home.

Falcons-x (-4) over Dolphins

Love QB Matt Ryan and Atlanta's 7-1 record at home last season.

Bengals-x (-4) over Broncos

Carson Palmer is back and healthy so we'll take a light spin with Cincinnati.

Browns-x (+4) over Vikings

Minny has covered only three of the last nine on the road, so we lean toward Brady Quinn.

Texans-x (-4.5) over Jets

Mark Sanchez won the QB job in pre-season, but he AIN'T gonna win this game.

Saints-x (-13) over Lions

Hate to lay double digits but Detroit hasn't won a game since the Model T was being built.

Cowboys (-6) over Bucs-x

With Jessica Simpson finally off his back, Tony Romo should have a spectacular season.

Rams (+9) over Seahawks-x

Both teams stunk it up last year, but nine points is WAY too steep for the struggling Seattle group.

Bears (+3.5) over Packers-x

Chicago FINALLY has a QB to go with the running game and stout defense. Grab the points.

NFL 2009 Week 1: Latest Line

Minnesota is an imposing 21-4-2 vs. the spread as a road favorite of 3 points or more on grass. The Vikings have also gone 6-1 vs. the spread their last 7 games as a non-conference favorite of more than 3 points. Cleveland is just 2-8 vs. the spread in its last 10 season openers and 8-16 vs. the spread as an underdog its last 24 non-conference games.

Take Minnesota -3 1/2 for another Best Bet winner.

Other plays include Jacksonville +7 vs. Indianapolis, San Francisco +6 vs. Arizona, and Washington +6 1/2 vs. New York.

2009 NFL WEEK 1 LATEST LINE

 

 

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NFL 2009 Week 1 - Selections & Latest Line