NFL 2009 Playoffs Wild Card Weekend: Picks & Selections

Benjamin Lee Eckstein & J. McCarthy

Bengals-x (-2) over Jets

Rex Ryan is turning out to be more colorful than his dad Buddy, saying that the Jets are the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

Guess Rex hasn't been to Vegas where the odds on the New Yorkers winning it all are 50-1, dead last. Much has been made of the Jets win at Indy and the bagel against Cincy, but these were two teams that were basically mailing it in. And can Carson Palmer do any worse than 1 for 11, ZERO yards, and 1 interception? Don't think so.

The Bengals played their starters, yes, but they KNEW the rematch with New York was a distinct possibility, so they were not gonna give away anything.

The four crucial elements that put me on Cincinnati are: 1) home field advantage, 2) Cedric Benson, who rushed for 1,251, is back 3) Mark Sanchez, the Jets rookie QB who has thrown for 12 TD's and TWENTY INT'S, 4) New York's leading tackler, David Harris, has a sprained ankle.

Eagles (+4) over Cowboys-x

It was quite a struggle handicapping this game.

Coming in on a six game winning streak, and with a chance to get a first round bye, the Birds NEVER showed up. Wow, what an ugly non-effort. This week, the Eagles need to get back to that 6-0 stretch run team (before the loss). And it's not as simple as saying Dallas can't beat the Birds three times in one season. There have been 19 times where teams have met in the playoffs after one of those teams swept the season series. The team that swept has completed the hat trick 12 times.

But the difference here is Andy Reid. In his seven trips to the playoffs, Reid has a glittering 7-0 mark in first round games, with an overall spread record of 6-2 in all road playoff games. One more stat to put into the mix. Since Andy took over, anytime the Eagles have scored seven or less, in the following game, they have covered a mind blowing 12 of 14.

Not sure if the Birds find the upset, so I'm calling for the Cowboys to advance with a 26-24 victory.

Ravens (+3.5) over Patriots-x

Here's what we know for SURE. Wes Welker, Tom Brady's lifeline, and the league leader with 123 receptions is gone. He will be replaced by Julian Edelman, a rookie who was a quarterback at Kent State. If Edelman beats me, I'll rip up my betting slip with a smile.

Here's what we're NOT sure about. Brady. He could have anywhere from one to three broken ribs, a possible broken finger, and some kind of shoulder tweak. Still, he's Tom Brady, so we'll keep a wary eye out for any late injury news, and possible line move.

Baltimore comes in with a pretty healthy squad, including the return of OT Jared Gaither, a vital cog in the running game. With the dynamic duo of Ray Rice (1,339 yards rushing and 78 receptions) and Willis McGahee, Joe Flacco should be able to keep the Ravens close enough to win on a late field goal, or at least cover the spread.

Packers (+1.5) over Cards-x

When Arizona found out before kickoff that its chance for a first round bye was history, and played, or should we say, did not play, accordingly.

Kurt Warner played just two series, before Matt Leinart mopped up.

It'll be a different group of Cards this week, but after looking at their body of work this season, we just don't get that warm fuzzy feeling about them that we had last year in the playoffs. And possibly going in without WR Anquan Boldin (sprained ankle), as well as injuries to CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and DE Calais Campbell, is bound to have an effect on'Zona.

We ARE getting a warm fuzzy feeling about this Green Bay team that has the BEST defense in the NFC, and comes rolling into this rematch on a gorgeous 8-0 spread run.

It ain't gonna be a blowout like last week, but the Packers are gonna be the BEST BET of the weekend as they roll into the second round.

 

x-home team

Last week: 12-3-1

Season record: 122-116-2

NFL 2009 Playoffs Wild Card Weekend Latest Line

Favorite Points Underdog
Source: J. McCarthy
CINCINNATI2 1/2 (34)NY Jets
DALLAS3 1/2 (45)Philadelphia
NEW ENGLAND3 1/2 (43)Baltimore
ARIZONAPick'em (47)Green Bay

Philadelphia is 6-2 vs. the spread its last eight playoff games and perfect 7-0 vs. the spread as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. The Eagles have won seven straight playoff openers under head coach Andy Reid. Dallas is 1-5 vs. the spread its last six playoff games and just 3-9 vs. the spread its last 12 games in the month of January. Take Philadelphia +3 1/2 for another Best Bet winner.

 

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NFL 2009 Playoffs Wildcard Weekend - Selections & Latest Line