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- iHaveNet.com: Politics
by Andres Oppenheimer
Like most civil rights supporters, I celebrated the news that a judge suspended the harshest portions of Arizona's xenophobic immigration law. But the more I think about it, the more I fear it will backfire in the near future.
The ruling suspends the Arizona law's provision that ask local police officers enforcing other laws to demand immigration papers from people they suspect are in the country illegally. That could have led to racially motivated interrogations of both legal and undocumented Hispanics.
But contrary to conventional wisdom that the judge's decision was a victory for pro-immigrant forces, it could have a negative political impact in November's legislative elections and may end up hurting immigrants in the long run.
First, the ruling was the first step of what's likely to be a long legal battle. Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, a vocal supporter of the state law, has already said she has appealed the ruling and that she may take it all the way to the
JUST THE BEGINNING
The legal battle over the Arizona law is far from over.
Backers of the state law and similar bills that have been introduced in 17 states say that in light of federal government inaction, states have to take measures on their own to stem the flow of undocumented immigrants.
Second, the ruling may energize Republicans in the November election. It will be used by anti-immigrant groups as a rallying cry to get voters to elect a new
"I fear that the unintended consequence of this ruling is that it will redouble restrictionists' efforts at the national level, which will be to the detriment of immigrants,"
Third, and most important, the news that the judge's ruling knocked out the most pervasive traits of the Arizona law may drive many Hispanics to stay at home in November.
Without Hispanic support, many Democratic opponents of Arizona-inspired laws may lose their elections, and there will be a greater chance that the next
Obama won the 2008 election with a massive 67 percent of the Hispanic vote nationwide, but a new Associated Press-Univisión poll shows that only 57 percent of Hispanics approve of the president's job performance today.
"Definitely, the
In addition, many Hispanics may not turn out to vote in November because they are disappointed that Obama has not met his campaign promise of presenting a comprehensive immigration bill early in his presidency, Bendixen said.
While few pollsters predict a Republican takeover of the
WORSE THAN BEFORE
My opinion: I know this sounds weird, but if the judge had not blocked the worst provisions of the Arizona law, the state legislation may have died of natural causes once local police forces realized that they don't have the resources to act as federal immigration officers, nor the stomach to be seen worldwide as symbols of state-sponsored xenophobia.
Letting the worst parts of the Arizona law stand would have given Democrats a major campaign issue to get out the Hispanic vote in November, keep their majority in both houses of
Now, it's going to be more difficult to get a high turnout from Hispanics, and we run the risk of ending up with a new
POST SCRIPT: Fortunately, the
Available at Amazon.com:
The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy
The Virtues of Mendacity: On Lying in Politics
Bush on the Home Front: Domestic Policy Triumphs and Setbacks
The Political Fix: Changing the Game of American Democracy, from the Grassroots to the White House
AMERICAN POLITICS
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Arizona Ruling May Backfire for Immigrants | Politics
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